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Crystal Palace v Burnley Tips: Lean towards bookings between these two low scorers

Jordan Ayew makes up part of my medium-priced bet this evening.
Jordan Ayew makes up part of my medium-priced bet this evening.

Crystal Palace welcome Burnley to Selhurst Park this evening in the Premier League's third match of gameweek 32 due to the weekend's FA Cup scheduling, available to watch live on Amazon Prime at 8pm.

This clash couldn't be more mid-table if it tried, with Palace (10th) sat ahead of Burnley (11th) on goal difference alone as both sides have 42 points to show for their efforts so far.

Since the restart, both clubs have won one and lost one game, with Burnley falling to a heavy 5-0 defeat against Manchester City before bouncing back and beating Watford 1-0 last week. 

Palace returned to action with a comfortable 2-0 win over Bournemouth but were played off the park against league champions Liverpool last week, losing 4-0 to the Reds without even registering a touch in their opponents' penalty area.

The Eagles are monitoring the fitness of Christian Benteke, Wilfried Zaha and Vicente Guaita as the trio are currently nursing muscle injuries, while James Tomkins, Martin Kelly and Jeffrey Schlupp are again expected to be sidelined through respective knocks.

Burnley are without Ashley Barnes, Robbie Brady, Johann Berg Gudmundsson and Chris Wood, while Jai Rodriguez' involvement is touch and go after the Englishman was subbed late on against Watford with a bang to his ankle.

Tonight's encounter is expected to be a tight affair, with the bookies favouring the hosts for the win with their odds of 11/5 - a 31% implied chance of victory. Burnley, meanwhile, have been given a 23% chance of winning by BetVictor with their odds of 10/3. 

I've picked out three tasty looking bets for this evening's action, each of which can be found below.

Crystal Palace v Burnley Odds
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Crystal Palace v Burnley Tip #1
20:00
Crystal Palace to win
WIN PROB: 43.48%
1.3/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • The Eagles have won the last four meetings between these two sides
  • Palace have won four of their last five matches, with their only defeat against Liverpool
  • Burnley have only won one of their last four games
Odds correct as of 2020-06-29 12:40 Odds subject to change.

Palace have dominated this particular match up in recent times, winning the last four meetings between the pair, and enter this game in promising form.

Despite the loss to Liverpool last Wednesday, the Eagles had won their previous four games (three prior to the break), and completely outplayed Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium in their first match back. 

Roy Hodgson’s side were clinical on the south coast, scoring two goals in the first 23 minutes and if they can put in a repeat performance here then I'm confident they’ll have enough to clinch all three points.

Burnley also find themselves in a bit of disarray at the minute, with several key players leaving the club this week due to their contracts not being extended by the club's chairman, leaving them very thin on the ground.

Rumours of Sean Dyche's departure at the end of the season have surfaced in the media because of this, which could also affect their performance on the pitch this evening.

This could be a good shout to make the most of Betfair Exchange's new Free Bet Streak Offer. Bet £20 on any football market throughout the week and you'll get a £5 Free Bet Streak. Win with that Free Bet Streak and you get another until you lose, £20 on the Palace win returns £47.20 and you're getting the best price on the Exchange

Crystal Palace v Burnley Tip #2
20:00
James Tarkowski to be shown a card & Jordan Ayew 1+ shot on target
WIN PROB: 16.67%
5/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Tarkowski has picked up 8 yellows this term - the joint-second highest for any Burnley player
  • Ayew is Palace's biggest attacking threat and has registered 21 shots on target this season
Odds correct as of 2020-06-29 12:40 Odds subject to change.

James Tarkowski is no stranger to the referee's notebook having seen yellow eight times this season. The England international is a rock at the back for Burnley and one of their most valued assets but often falls victim to a late challenge when up against a quick striker. 

He'll be tasked with handling the lively Jordan Ayew this evening, which is never an easy prospect given the Ghanaian's pace and athleticism, so I reckon he might just be in for another booking in south London. 

I'm doubling this bet up with the above mentioned Ayew to register one or more shots on target at Selhurst Park. The 28-year-old is Palace’s biggest attacking threat having scored nine goals this season, with his latest goal coming in the 2-0 win over Bournemouth a fortnight ago, while he has also registered the club's most shots on target this time out (21).

Ayew will spearhead the hosts’ front-line tonight, and with plenty of ammunition coming from either wing courtesy of Wilfried Zaha and Andros Townsend, he should be presented with a few opportunities in front of goal.

This bet was priced up at 10/3, but the good people over at Betfair have given it a boost to 5/1, again maximising your value for money.

Crystal Palace v Burnley Tip #3
20:00
Westwood & Milivojevic to be booked and van Aanholt 1+ shot on target
WIN PROB: 1.96%
50/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Westwood and Milivojevic are their clubs' most booked players this season (9 each)
  • Van Aanholt is a very attacking full-back and is never afraid of shooting from distance
  • The Dutchman has scored 3 goals this season - Palace's joint-second highest goalscorer
Odds correct as of 2020-06-29 12:40 Odds subject to change.

My longshot bet includes two players who are no strangers to a booking, with Ashley Westwood and Luka Milivojevic both seeing yellow nine times this term - the highest amount out of any player in each squad. 

Westwood and Milivojevic are predicted to line-up directly against each other in the centre of the park this evening, which could lead to some full-blooded tackles as both are certainly not ones to shy away from the challenge. 

Live in-play scores

To round things off and really help boost the odds to a mouth-watering 50/1 (boosted from 40/1), I’ve chucked in Palace’s marauding left-back Patrick van Aanholt to have one or more shots on target. 

The Dutchman is practically an attacker at times the amount he looks to bomb forward on the overlap, and amazingly is Palace’s second-joint highest goalscorer this season having netted three goals. 

Van Aanholt also frequently takes free-kicks from distance if they’re on the right hand side of the area, so if there’s one this evening then this bet’s chances of coming in will be handed a welcome boost.

As always we hope you thoroughly enjoy the game, but please remember to bet responsibly. 

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