Crystal Palace vs. Leeds Predictions: We're backing shots galore at Selhurst

There's a solitary Premier League game on Monday night from Selhurst Park. Crystal Palace take on Leeds and we've asked our tipster Sam Ingram to preview this one and provide us with his two best bets. 

Leeds United come into Monday Night Football having won three of their last four Premier League outings. The three victories under Jesse Marsch are as many as Leeds had mustered in the previous 18 fixtures.

And what a perfect time to do it. Leeds were staring down the barrel of relegation at the beginning of March. Six losses on the spin had resigned the thinking in Yorkshire to one in line with an intense scuffle with Norwich, Watford and the like.

Now, Marsch has them ahead of Everton and picking up much-needed points. A tricky Crystal Palace outfit is next on the agenda, a trip that Leeds won’t want to come away from empty-handed.

Palace will play their part as host and welcome the visitors to a ground where they’re unbeaten in five on home soil. Although proving stubborn at Selhurst Park, Palace have lost three matches in a row in all competitions.

Looking at this fixture from a betting perspective, my first thought was that it’d likely be end-to-end action for large periods. Both sides should fancy starting the week with three points, something which should spill over into how we see them approach the game. 

In the hope that the score line stays tight and Leeds fails to take the lead and camp in their half, the visitors’ shot line looks tempting. Bet365 has the line at 12+, which is about right according to the numbers this season.

Leeds average 12.19 per90 away from home across the entirety of the campaign. Under Marsch’s guidance (19, 4, 13, 15, 12 & 10), Leeds have ticked off the 12+ shot line offered in four of the new gaffer’s six games.

Crystal Palace ranks as the fifth-stingiest team at home for conceding shots this term. The Eagles’ 10.06 total is bettered by only Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal, in that order, all of whom concede single figure shots on average.

That’s impressive. Nevertheless, with Burnley’s two wins on the trot, the Clarets edge just two points behind Leeds in the table. Lampard’s Everton takes the final relegation spot in 18th, four points off. There is more on the line now for Leeds. As you’d expect Everton and Burnley to collect more points in the final six games, each game is becoming do or die for Leeds United.

It’s worth noting that Palace aren’t safe. Far from it. Yet, the eight points they’ve got on Everton should be enough to fend away any real concerns of the drop. If Palace can take three points off Watford at Selhurst Park in a couple of weeks, that should do the job.

If Palace goes a goal ahead under the lights on Monday night, I expect 12+ shots to be hit comfortably as Leeds scrap for survival. If the game stays tight, it’ll be more difficult, for sure, but Leeds are more than capable of producing 12+ attempts with so much on the line.

I’m aware that an evens shout isn’t overly appealing for some. So, for those of you who like something a little riskier, I’m combining the 14+ Leeds shots in a bet builder with the following.

For both to muscle in on the scoresheet, the 1.70 offered looks a little shy. However, when adding 14+ Leeds shots into a bet365 bet builder, the result is a punt-worthy 5.00. Leeds will likely have to fall behind to reach 14+ or encounter a Palace side off the pace, but it’s reachable.

In the Premier League this season, 59% of Leeds games have returned profits for BTTS punters. For Patrick Viera’s men, precisely 50% of matches have seen his side share the scoresheet with top-flight opponents. These percentages place both sides in the top ten for BTTS this term.

Since Jesse Marsch’s opening game against Leicester, Leeds has produced an xG total of 10.68 from six displays. The impressive xG capacity under the American’s watchful eye suggests the visitors are adept at keeping their end of the bargain for BTTS backers.

A Crystal Palace side hoping to get back to winning ways and get themselves safe as soon as possible should have enough impetus to register a goal on home soil. The 1.56 goals per90 at Selhurst Park this term provide a little comfort that Zaha and company can take care of business for the long shot, too.

+8.95u - Betting Odds P/L