Cross Game Multi Tips: Back Joe to get Tuesday's European treble off to a flyer
There is plenty of mid-week elite footballing action to get stuck into across Europe. I have delved into the player cards and shots on target markets and found some angles I like and a 59/1 long-shot!
The first selection comes via South Yorkshire as struggling Sheffield United welcome Newcastle to Bramall Lane. The Blades confidence will be bolstered following their first victory of the campaign- vs Bristol Rovers in the FA Cup- at the 19th time of asking. However, the problems continue to mount for Chris Wilder’s men as their injury list lengthens and rumours of a COVID-19 outbreak amongst their ranks circulate.
Billy Sharpe and Phil Jagielka are expected to miss out with the virus while ever present wingbacks George Baldock and Enda Stevens are sidelined with injuries. They are set to be replaced by ex-Derby duo Jayden Bogle and Max Lowe.
Despite being without a domestic victory and facing a side that bested them twice by an aggregate score of 6-1 last season, Sheffield United are the bookies favourites to get their first victory of the season. Steve Bruce’s side are without a win in seven games as the Magpies faithful continue to grow increasingly restless with the bland brand of football on display. Only West Brom and Burnley have a worse xG then Newcastle (15.55) and Bruce is showing no compromise with this tactics for his trip to S2. Ryan Fraser and Jamal Lewis face late assessments but Jonjo Shelvey and Callum Wilson are expected to return to the starting XI having missed the weekend's FA Cup action in the capital.
Next on the agenda is a rerun of a Serie A clash from the weekend as AC Milan welcome Torino to the San Siro for the second time in four days. Our hosts will be hoping for a carbon copy of their most recent clash but will have to contend with the absences of Matteo Gabbia, Ismael Bennacer and Alexis Saelemakekers (injured) while Rade Krunic and Ante Rebic ruled out with COVID-19. ‘King Zlatan’ may have to settle for a spot on the bench again as the inform Rafael Leao continues upfront. As was the case on Saturday Torino have a fully fit squad. Marco Giampaolo is set to restore Karol Linetty to The Toro’s midfield.
The final secession comes courtesy of La Liga’s fixture between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla. Diego Simeone’s side currently sit top the table and will be hoping to notch up their fifth win in as many games on Tuesday night. Hector Herrera is their only absentee as Kieran Trippier’s betting ban was suspended by FIFA and Stefan Savic returns from suspension.
Sevilla have also been in fine fettle domestically, they come into this one fresh off the back of 3-2 victory over Real Sociedad which stretches their unbeaten run to nine games. Jesus Navas is set to slot back in at right back having recovered from a hamstring injury while Youssef En-Nesyri will lead the line following his hat-trick in his last appearance.
Sheffield United’s defending from set pieces this campaign has been woeful; only Leeds (ten) have conceded more goals via them than their eight. In SUFC’s FA Cup game at the weekend, one of Bristol Rovers goals came via a set piece and the other was scored directly from a corner. Bristol Rovers had a total of ten shots on Saturday, only four came from inside the box and all off those came via either a corner or set piece. In the Premier League, 24% of the shots the Blades have conceded have come from set pieces and corners, an average of 3.76 per game.
Newcastle striker Joelinton is priced at 7/1 to have a headed shot on target with Betfair and Paddy Power. Over half of the Brazilians shots this season have come via his head and his xG of 0.63 from his head is greater than the total xG from both of his feet (0.51).
In his eleven EPL starts this season, he’s only failed to register at least one headed shot in games vs Chelsea, Man United and Spurs and he has registered a headed SoT in 20% of his appearances. So, given the implied probability of Betfair’s odds (12.5%) I think this price holds some value, especially when you consider the underlying data on Sheffield United’s ability to defend from set pieces and corners.
This price may appear a little skinny given you are backing a man with only two bookings to his name in 16 domestic starts. However, at least one of the opposition's central midfielders has been booked in four of the last five of AC Milan's fixtures.
The Polish midfielder has averaged 1.4 fouls per game he has started and will be covering the likes of Castillejo, Calhanoglu and Leao at the San Siro.
Paolo Valeri has the whistle for this one, he has averaged 5.43Y and 0.29R per Serie A game this season. He has taken charge of two Torino games, brandishing seven yellows but Linetty did not start in either.
It is also worth noting that a Linetty card is only 1/1 with Betfair!
Steven Savic returns is back at Simeone’s disposal following his suspension for an accumulation of cards and I fancy him to pick up where he left off.
The Montenegrin international has accumulated five cards in 13 La Liga appearances this season which is the most of any Atleti player. In all competitions, he has received seven cards, all of which have come in his last seven starts all of which came whilst playing in a back three. In fact, his start vs Valencia was the only time he has not been carded whilst playing in a back three in his last nine appearances.
Tomorrow, if Savic starts at RCB- as expected- he will be opposing Sevilla’s most fouled player; Lucas Ocampos. Ocampos has drawn an average of 2.9 fouls per game in La Liga this season, an average only Nabil Fekir has bested.
Long-shot
For a bit of fun you can combine all three of these selections with Betfair at 59/1, please gamble responsibly though.
