Cross Game Multi Tips: Best bets for Saturday's PL fixtures
It’s pretty harsh on Manchester City to have such a quick turn around but it does increase the likelihood Guardiola will make wholesale changes from the side who played superbly against PSG midweek. Palace are on the opposite end of the scale having played just 1 match in the past 3 weeks but that didn’t seem to help them against Leicester where they were second best throughout and with their injury list still high I don’t expect to see a shock result.
When looking at Manchester City’s shot prices I was surprised to see Jesus 8th down the list but when I looked into this season's data that was a pretty fair price as he ranks 8th for most frequent shots on target in the City team. But, if you go back further and look at the past 2 seasons he ranks first each time, and if you go back 3 years he ranks 2nd only to Aguero; during those seasons you would have been getting about 4/6 on him to have 2 shots on target in a match like this so the 7/2 available on him currently is a very good price if you believe that this season has just been a particularly unfortunate one for him so far.
I’m happy to take the chance on him here especially as he played no part midweek and potentially could get a full 90 mins to impress.
Brighton v Leeds has become somewhat of a fans derby this season after the Ben White transfer saga last summer but whether that will impact the players at all remains to be seen. Somehow Brighton still aren’t 100% safe despite their underlying performance data having them in the European places, a win here would certainly do the trick though. I expect an even game and there’s one player from each team who’s shot prices stand out, for Brighton it’s Yves Bissouma.
I’ve been on him a few times this season without success but in his last 3 matches he’s taken a whopping 10 shots without hitting the target once, in fact this season only 2 Brighton players have taken more shots than him, but when you look at shots on target there have been 12 Brighton players manage more so accuracy is certainly his weakness, he’s 11/4 to have 3 or more shots here and that’s a bet that’s landed in all of his last 3 matches.
For Leeds, Dallas has arguably been their player of the season and he’s certainly their most inform player, he’s had 4 shots on target in his last 5 matches including those 2 key goals against City. And, just like the City game, I can see Leeds being most effective on the counter which will certainly suit Dallas so at 21/10 that looks a great price for just 1 shot on target.
I’ve mentioned it many times before with Everton about how bad their shot data is, it’s now 22 out of their last 24 matches against PL opposition where they have failed to have more shots than their opponents. That would be a bad record for a side in the relegation zone so it’s remarkable how they are still going so well in the league this season.
I mention this because their shot prices are about half of what Villa's are for this match despite averaging far less than Villa this season. Villa managed 24 against West Brom last time out and they are 10/1 for 18+ here and that’s going to be my main play. The hope is Everton take the lead as Villa have produced some crazy shot numbers in games they are chasing so I’d rather take the higher shot number at the bigger price in the hope that happens.
Everton have shown this season that if they get in front they will back themselves to hold on even when their opponents are dominating the game.
