Chelsea vs. Watford Predictions: Best bets for Mike Dean's final Premier League game
Watford make the trip to Chelsea on the final day of the Premier League campaign knowing they will be playing football in the English second-tier next season. We’ve previewed the game at Stamford Bridge and have given you our best data-driven tips.
Chelsea are pretty much guaranteed a third-place finish due to their superior goal difference over Spurs in fourth. It’s not been a great end to the season for Tuchel’s men, losing the FA Cup final on penalties, as well as winning just one of their five matches in the league. The sale of the club and off the field issues look to be continuing into the summer and they will want to end on a high, in what has been a turbulent few months.
Timo Werner, Ben Chilwell and Callum Hudson-Odoi are all sidelined, while this could be Cesar Azpilicueta’s final game for the club after a fantastic decade of service. Watford have a huge list of injuries ahead of this game that includes Emmanuel Dennis, Ismaila Sarr, Tom Cleverley, Cucho Hernandez, and Juraj Kucka.
Another man we will be saying goodbye to on Sunday will be referee Mike Dean who will take control of his final Premier League game here at Chelsea. The legendary official has announced he will be retiring at the end of the season, although there’s a chance we will see him on our screens in years to come, with a potential reality tv opportunity muted on I’m a Celebrity or Strictly Come Dancing.
Chelsea vs Watford Tips
The Blues have a strong record against Watford in recent years, particularly at home. They have won nine of the last ten meetings against the Hornets at Stamford Bridge, scoring at least three goals in eight of the last nine. With wholesale changes expected from Watford and their lengthy injury-list, we feel this could be somewhat of a procession for the hosts and they have the ability to rack up the goals here.
With this in mind, we like the look of Mason Mount to get on the scoresheet, priced at 6/4 at the time of writing on the Betfair Exchange. After missing the midweek game with Leicester, Mount is set to come back into the side and should be fresh for this final day clash.
Mount has scored 11 league goals this season in 31 appearances and his price doesn’t scream value on first glance. However, it’s worth considering who these 11 goals have come against, with ten of them being against clubs in the bottom half!. The 23-year-old scored against Watford in the reverse fixture and has scored in both league matches against Norwich and Leeds this season.
Mount also got on the scoresheet in matches against Everton, Southampton, and West Ham with none of his eleven goals coming against ‘big-six’ sides. Watford have lost seven of their last eight and it would be no surprise to see them take a battering on their way back down to the Championship.
On Thursday here on BettingOdds.com, we recommended Reece James to register an assist against Leicester. The full-back setup Marcos Alonso for Chelsea’s equalising goal and was best-priced at 16/5 with Betfair for an anytime assist that day.
We are therefore surprised to see an even bigger 4/1 on offer with William Hill for Reece James assist against Watford and are going back in on what looks a very generously priced selection.
In the league it’s now eight assists in 21 starts for the Chelsea wing-back this term, giving plenty of appeal to this price on offer from Hills, when considering their opponents on Sunday.
Of all the players in the Chelsea squad with 10+ appearances this season, James has amassed the most Expected Assists (xA) per 90 minutes this season, and with him also being a corner taker, there’s a strong plenty of reason to believe there’s more chance of this bet landing than the 20% that 4/1 implies.
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