Chelsea vs Middlesbrough Prediction and Betting Tips: Back Cole Palmer to Score and be Carded

Chelsea will look to overturn a one goal deficit as they take on Middlesbrough in the second leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final on Tuesday. After a 14/1 winner last weekend, our man Anthony Eadson returns to the tipping hotseat, for a game that can be seen live on Sky Sports.

Five-time League Cup winners Chelsea have won four of their last five matches across all competitions with the only blemish on that record being the 1-0 defeat to Middlesbrough two weeks ago. The Blues are just one point behind Manchester United in the top-flight table and boss Mauricio Pochettino will know the importance of this competition and potentially lifting a trophy in what has been a difficult first season.  

After disappointment in the play-off semi-final last season, Boro have once again got their sights set on a top-six finish and hopefully a return to the promised land of England’s top table. Middlesbrough lifted the League Cup back in 2004 when they overcame Bolton in the final and they have given themselves every chance of reaching this year’s final after victory on home soil. 

Despite their one goal advantage Middlesbrough are the underdogs to progress to the final at Wembley, priced at 2/1, while The Blues are the odds-on favourites at 4/11. For those looking at the match result market (90 mins), Chelsea are being offered at 2/9, the draw 6/1 and a historic upset for the visitors all the way out at 10/1.  

Team News
Chelsea are still missing as many as ten players with Robert Sanchez, Marc Cucurella, Wesley Fofana, Reece James, Romeo Lavia, Christopher Nkunku and Malo Gusto, all out injured. Trevoh Chalobah is a doubt, with Nicolas Jackson is away on international duty.

Boro will be without the services of Alex Bangura, Emmanuel Latte Lath, Darragh Lenihan, Tommy Smith, Luke Ayling and Sam Greenwood. They are sweating on the fitness of Isaiah Jones, while Seny Dieng, Riley McGree and Sam Silvera are away representing thieir national sides.

With the prospect of a final on the line I expect both teams to really put their bodies on the line for this clash which will hopefully result in a high foul count. With this in mind, I've opted for a player fouls double for our main bet of the evening consisting of Conor Gallagher and Jonny Howson to clear the Over 0.5 line.  

Let’s start with Gallagher. A well-known common culprit when it comes to fouls and card-collecting, Gallagher has committed 16 more fouls than any other Chelsea player this season in the Premier League. The 23-year-old has hit double figures when it comes to cards in the last three full league seasons and has cleared the 0.5 fouls line in 13 of his last 15 starts.  

Jonny Howson gave away two fouls in the first leg and will be a key figure in trying to preserve the delicate lead his side take into this game. Howson has racked up 19 yellow cards across the last two full league seasons and is on course to break his personal record of 11 in a single campaign having already racked up six in 21 starts this time round. Combining Gallagher and Howson both to give away at least one foul pays 4/5.  

We’ve seen both Ivan Toney, Darwin Nunez and James Ward-Prowse all score and be carded in the Premier League last weekend and I’m hoping that trend continues to the Carabao Cup with Cole Palmer on Tuesday. BetMGM are the best priced betting site at the time of writing with 9/1 on show.  

This is a bet that has landed in three of Palmer’s 13 Premier League starts this season and taking a bit of a deeper dive he has scored nine goals across this sample. Furthermore, Palmer has also seen yellow in six of those 13 league starts and with five goals in his last six league outings, he looks a solid proposition to find the net and find his way into the book at Stamford Bridge.