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Championship Tips: Best plays for Wednesday's action in the second tier

George Honeyman features in our Championship trio.
George Honeyman features in our Championship trio.
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Swansea welcome promotion hopefuls West Brom to the Liberty Stadium on Wednesday evening. Despite picking up 10 points from their last five domestic fixtures, the visitors have been a little underwhelming recently - in terms of their performances - as unrest grows amongst supporters regarding Valérien Ismaël’s stubbornly direct approach. 

The underlying data supports this as it suggests they should not have picked up as many points as they have and with Swansea brimming with confidence following their derby day win I think WBA will struggle to get a result in Wales. 

For my next best bet we head to the Madejski where Reading welcome Blackpool at 8pm on Wednesday. The Royals have been in fine fettle as of late and could represent some value in the 1x2 markets at 6/5 - an implied probability of 45% - as they have won 62% of their games when priced accordingly. 

Championship Tips

Interestingly, these sides have a combined total of 16 first team players unavailable for this fixture, the biggest loss for either side could be the visitors livewire in attack Shayne Lavery. The Northern Irishman has averaged an xG 0.73 per 90 this campaign and a real thorn in the side of most opposition defences due to his tireless work-rate and shrewd ability to find space in the box. Gary Madine will continue to partner Jerry Yates up-front. 

My longshot comes courtesy of a tasty looking fixture at the foot of the table between Championship new-boys Hull and Peterborough. 

Even though we are just over a quarter of the way into the season this has a whiff of a must not lose for both sides after making equally poor starts to their respective campaigns. This combine with a favourable officiating appointment in Leigh Doughty - who has the third highest cards per game average of anyone in the league - makes cards the play for me.

Today's football tips
Swansea +0.5 Asian Handicap
9/10
Odds correct as of 2021-10-19 10:35 Odds subject to change.

The Baggies were perhaps a tad fortunate to come away with all three points on Friday against Birmingham as the underlying data suggests the scoreline flattered them, as has been the case in their last three matches. WBA have scored two more than their xG suggests they should have and only conceded once despite shipping an xGA of 4.60 in those fixtures!

Since Russell Martin took over the Swans progress has been subtle and steady, however, they have hit the ground running following the second international break of the season. They spanked local rivals Cardiff 3-0 on Sunday, although it is worth noting that the game could have gone very differently as the Bluebirds squandered some great chances at 0-0. Nevertheless, the hosts will draw a lot of confidence from that victory which is why I fancy them.

This angle has landed in six of the Swans last seven games and with 84% of the Baggies games being separated by a goal or less I think this clash will be tighter then the odds imply.

Championship odds
Gary Madine Card
9/2
Odds correct as of 2021-10-19 10:35 Odds subject to change.

Gary Madine first acquainted himself with the Football League at the age of 16 and has become notoriously dangerous on and off the field since. Over the course of a domestic career spanning over 14 years and 400 games he has picked up surprisingly few cards - 36Y and 2R - which is why you could make a case for wanting a bookings price much closer to 13/2.

Especially considering that Jeremy Simpson is in charge of this fixture, someone who has been frustratingly stingy with the distribution of his cards this campaign averaging just 3.16 in the second tier. 

Madine played a sizable chunk of the Tagarines promotion campaign last season during which he picked up a card in 20% of the 90 minutes he completed. In his last four seasons in the Championship, he had a cards per 90 average of 0.27. Therefore, I would have him a point shorter here making it a valuable play, not least because he has committed six fouls in his last two starts.

George Honeyman and Dan Butler To Be Carded
14/1
Odds correct as of 2021-10-19 10:45 Odds subject to change.

The first player I like for a card in this fixture is the Tigers attacking midfielder George Honeyman, who despite only completing 115 domestic minutes already has two bookings to his name. 

He has accumulated 39 cards since making his professional debut, over half of which have come since joining Hull (22) where he has averaged 0.34 cards per 90. Therefore, I would make 2/1 a perfectly apt price so it could be worth playing this as a single as it does represent some value. 

A Dan Butler card is the other leg of this double. He has made over 300 appearances in the football league but this season in the Championship is the highest level he has ever played at, which you could defer from the cynical start he has made to the season. 

Butler has picked up four cards in 12 appearances and will do well not to add to that tally at the MKM Stadium given the fact that a third of the left backs to face Hull this season have gone into the book and that does not include Levi Colwill (LCB). 

Best of luck if you are following any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly. 

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