Champions League Outright Betting: Are Chelsea the value play at 14/1?

Since the arrival of Thomas Tuchel in January, Chelsea have not lost a game. They are one of Europe’s most in-form sides at present and look a team completely transformed under the German coach. 

When Frank Lampard departed Stamford Bridge the Blues were ninth in the top-flight, but in the six weeks spent under Tuchel’s guidance they have leapt to fourth and are now as short as 1/3 in the Premier League top-four betting (5/2 before his appointment), which would see them re-qualify for next season’s Champions League campaign. 

What would also see them qualify for the 2021-22 UCL, though, is if they won this season’s tournament - something I want to take a deeper look at their chances of here. 

The west London side are currently 14/1 in the market and that is a price which could offer some tremendous value. With a foothold in their last-16 clash against Atletico Madrid thanks to an Olivier Giroud-inspired 1-0 victory in the first leg away from home, Chelsea need to do what they have been doing best in recent weeks - shut out their opponents on home soil - and they will find themselves one step closer to the elusive final. 

Defensively solid

In theory, it shouldn’t be too difficult. Since Tuchel’s arrival Chelsea have been astonishing defensively, conceding just two goals in their 11 matches under the former PSG and Borussia Dortmund head coach in all competitions. The Blues have been formidable at Stamford Bridge, with their 2-0 victory over top-four rivals Everton on Monday night the fifth consecutive clean sheet they have kept on home turf.  

Chelsea’s record under Tuchel - all competitions

• Games: 11
• Wins: 8
• Defeats: 0
• Draws: 3 
• Goals scored: 13
• Goals conceded: 2

Next Wednesday Chelsea will meet a side renowned for their defensive capabilities, as Atletico travel to SW6 looking to overturn their first leg defeat in Madrid. In years gone by, you’d feel confident in Simeone’s experienced outfit doing just that, but this Chelsea side is a different animal altogether; one which will feel confident in their ability to match their Spanish counterparts blow for blow, just like they did at the Wanda Metropolitano last month.

Strength in-depth

With a huge amount of squad depth at Tuchel’s disposal, Chelsea have the option to rest some of their star performers ahead of next week’s do-or-die duel in the capital. The Blues face Leeds on Saturday but it would not be surprising to see the German rotate his squad to ensure his key men are preserved for the visit of Atletico next Wednesday, just like he did for last night’s clash against Everton. 

The first-eleven chosen was one which surprised many, with the likes of Mason Mount, N’Golo Kante, Ben Chilwell, Hakim Ziyech and Thiago Silva all starting on the bench at Stamford Bridge. It didn’t weaken them, though, and a convincing performance resulted in another win-to-nil victory for the hosts in a game where Kai Havertz looked as though he had finally found his bearings in his new surroundings. 

Mount flourishing; Havertz finding his feet

The Germany international has endured a slow start to life as a Chelsea player, finding regular playing time limited as Mason Mount has often been deployed ahead of him in the No 10 position. Prior to last night’s game, the 21-year-old had started just 12 of Chelsea's 27 league games but he showed no signs of rustiness with his exemplary performance in the false 9 position against the Toffees, firing in the opener off Ben Godfrey before winning the penalty for the home side’s second goal just after the hour mark. 

Havertz vs. Everton

• 100% take-ons completed
• 53 touches
• 5 touches in opp. box (most)
• 5 duels won
• 2 shots
• 2 aerial duels won
• 2 take-ons completed
• 1 penalty won

While it may have taken a bit of time for him to find his feet in west London, and one good performance is of course not enough to warrant a regular starting position in this invigorated Chelsea team, the signs are beginning to look positive for Havertz and Chelsea fans should perhaps start getting excited about his future at Stamford Bridge. 

His improvement has come at a crucial time of the season when Chelsea need their entire squad - not just their starting XI - firing on all cylinders if they are to secure a top-four finish alongside travelling further towards the Champions League and FA Cup final. 

And it is not just Havertz who appears to have been given a new lease of life under Tuchel. After a bumpy start, where he was left out of the starting line-up for the German’s first game against Wolves, Mason Mount is now flourishing in the ex-Dortmund manager’s system, back playing in his preferred position in the free-role behind the forward line rather than deeper in central midfield - a position he often frequented under Lampard.

Mount has scored three goals in his seven league starts under Tuchel after a run where he had found the net just once in 15 league matches with Lampard in charge. The England international looks sharper than ever, and in his current form he is certainly a player who could prove to be the difference for Chelsea in the latter stages of this season's Champions League. 

Liverpool's price highlights the value in Chelsea

When you compare Chelsea’s outright price in this market to Liverpool’s, the value is highlighted. It’s no secret that the Reds are massively struggling at the moment so to see them at a rather short-looking 7/1 to win the competition is quite the surprise. With a 2-0 lead over RB Leipzig it looks as though Jurgen Klopp’s side will be present in the last-eight, although nothing can be taken as a guarantee.

But to say that Chelsea - themselves with a lead in their last-16 clash - are double the odds of the Merseyside club which currently finds itself in total disarray, seems a little perplexing. This is, remember, a different Chelsea side altogether these days, led by a manager who just last season took a PSG side who had never previously made it past the quarter-final stage to the final of the competition.

City and Bayern extremely short; PSG hard to get behind

With all things considered, Chelsea’s odds to win the Champions League certainly feels like a price worth getting behind at this stage. It will not be an easy task, however, with a number of really strong sides still left in the competition. Manchester City and Bayern Munich head up the betting at 5/2 and 10/3 respectively and are certainly the teams to beat, but it is difficult to get excited about either of their prices.

Meanwhile, Tuchel’s previous employers - a PSG side now managed by Mauricio Pochettino - reminded everyone that they are not to be discounted after an emphatic 4-1 victory over Barcelona in the Catalans’ own backyard last month.

The Parisians are 11/2 third-favourites at the time of writing, but despite their dazzling performance against Ronald Koeman’s side I still feel as if they’d struggle against a defensively resilient side like Chelsea were they to meet in the next round of the competition. PSG exploited Barca’s defensive frailties but Chelsea, Bayern and Manchester City do not have these same woes - despite the latter’s performance in the Manchester derby on Sunday. 

That leaves the aforementioned Liverpool as the only shorter-priced team than Chelsea still left in the competition, but currently the Blues are streets ahead of their rivals from the north-west, proven when the two sides met in the Premier League last week and a Mason Mount goal was the decider at Anfield. Tuchel’s side dominated proceedings and were unlucky not to win by a bigger margin, thanks to Timo Werner’s first half goal being disallowed because his armpit hair was adjudged to be offside. 

The true test of Chelsea’s mettle will come next Wednesday, when a fury-filled Atletico come to visit west London, determined to right the wrongdoings of their first leg defeat. But if the Blues can withstand that test then we will know that they are the real deal, and this magnificent run is more than just a dose of beginner's luck.

One thing is for certain, if they do etch their name into the last-eight, the 14/1 available right now will quickly become little more than a distant memory.