Champions League Odds: PSG cut into 3/1 favourites as Messi’s arrival looms

After being 12/1 in June, Paris Saint-Germain have been cut into 3/1 bookmaker favourites to win this season’s Champions League, as speculation involving the potential signing of Lionel Messi gains momentum. 

Barcelona shocked the world by announcing the Argentine’s departure on Thursday night, stating that it would be impossible to re-sign their talisman due to La Liga’s financial regulations.

Only a small handful of clubs in world football would be able to afford Messi’s weekly wage, with Gulf-state backed Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City the two powerhouses at the top of the pile. 

City were credited with firm interest in signing Messi last summer, as the playmaker made his desire to leave public. A transfer failed to materialise, however, and this summer they have signed Jack Grealish from Aston Villa for £100m, which makes it somewhat unlikely that they will also pen a deal for Messi. 

The 34-year-old held an emotional press conference on Sunday, bidding farewell to the club he has spent the last 21 years playing for, and said that a move to Paris was “a possibility”. Should the deal come to fruition, it would see Messi link up with former Barca team-mate Neymar and France superstar Kylian Mbappe, in what would complete the most talented strike force in world football by a considerable distance. 

The Parisians have been busy this summer

As well as the potential arrival of Messi, PSG have already signed goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma - who this summer played a vital part in Italy’s triumph at the European Championship - from AC Milan, as well as Georginio Wijnaldum from Liverpool and Sergio Ramos from Real Madrid; each of whom were signed as free agents. 

Alongside the likes of Marco Veratti, Marquinhos, Angel Di Maria, Achraf Hakimi and the aforementioned Mbappe and Neymar, PSG would have the strongest squad of players in world football should Messi also make the switch to the Parc des Princes.

Champions League success is the true test

Their outright odds to win Ligue 1 are as short as 1/7, with league dominance already looking like a foregone conclusion, with or without Messi. The French club’s true test is in the Champions League, though - a competition that has so far eluded their grasp. 

The Parisians made the final in 2019/20 but were defeated by Bayern Munich at the final hurdle, and last season made it to the semi-finals only to be knocked out by Manchester City, who themselves went on to lose to Chelsea in the final. This season, however, they have an edge, with the likes of Donnarumma, Ramos, Wijnaldum and most probably Messi all joining the club. 

Each of those players have tasted success in the Champions League, with Ramos and Messi winning it a combined eight times throughout their careers. Wijnaldum lifted Europe’s premier club trophy with Liverpool in 2019, a year after losing the final in Ukraine to Real Madrid. Donnarumma is yet to go the distance in the UCL but is fresh from winning the Euros with Italy and is still just 22 years of age. These are elite players with elite winning mentalities, the importance of which should not be underplayed when discussing a club’s potential of winning such an elusive tournament. 

3/1 could still represent some value

Should there somehow be a late twist in the soap opera that has become Messi’s reality in recent months, and the South American does not sign for PSG, Mauricio Pochettino will still have a great chance of winning his club their first ever Champions League title with the current crop of ultra-talented super-athletes he finds at his disposal. Throw Messi into the cauldron alongside them, though, and it almost looks impossible to envisage anyone else beating them to it, not even City, which makes the 3/1 on offer actually look like, dare I say it, a bit of value?

The word “value” is of course used loosely. This is the Champions League we are talking about, where the crème de la crème do battle with one another each and every season, and to simply discount the rest of Europe’s elite from the conversation just because PSG have recruited immensely well this summer would be ignorant and poorly thought out. 

Finally City’s year?

Manchester City have got a frighteningly strong squad which has been further bolstered by the arrival of Jack Grealish, not to mention the fact that Pep Guardiola - renowned for his determination - will be even more desperate to win the one trophy he has failed to do so with his current employers after getting so agonisingly close last season. 

The Cityzens were favourites in the Champions League winner betting a matter of weeks ago, but they have dropped behind PSG with several firms following the news surrounding Messi, priced at 7/2 in the market. There is then a fairly sizeable gap to third-favourites Bayern Munich, who are 7/1 shots but disappointed in the competition last term, bowing out to PSG in the quarter-finals. 

2018/19 winners Liverpool follow up at 9/1, before current holders Chelsea enter the frame at 10/1; Manchester United are 14/1, and 13-time champions Real Madrid are 20/1. Messi’s former club, Barcelona, can be backed at 25/1 at the time of writing, though with everything going on at the moment, it would actually be a surprise to see them even make it past the group stage of the competition let alone win it.