Champions League Betting: Last 16 team-by-team guide with two each-way shouts

The dust has settled after the Champions League draw for the last 16 with fixtures set to take place in February. Here at BettingOdds.com we’ve taken a look at the outright market and have provided you with our team-by-team guide including our best bets from @AnthonyEadson. All of the prices quoted below are with bet365 and it’s worth noting that most firms are offering half each-way odds of ½ for a team to reach the final. 

Round of 16 Ties

• Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain

• RB Leipzig v Liverpool

• Porto v Juventus

• Sevilla v Dortmund

• Atletico Madrid v Chelsea

• Lazio v Bayern Munich 

• Atalanta v Real Madrid

• Monchengladbach v Manchester City

Bayern Munich - 11/4

After qualifying for the knockout phase with a game to spare whilst giving Atletico Madrid a 4-0 spanking in the group stage it’s hard to look away from the German side repeating their success of last season. We recommended Bayern in our Champions League preview at the start of the campaign and nothing has changed in that department despite Hansi Flick’s conceding in four of their six group games.

With players such as Robert Lewandowski, Thomas Muller, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane, I believe this juggernaut is not for stopping. These are players who come alive in the latter stages of the tournament, especially Thomas Muller, who has 23 goals in 46 knockout matches. In Robert Lewandowski they have last season’s top scorer and despite being three goals behind the leaders this term, the Polish striker could well close that gap in the round of 16.

Bayern have been handed a generous draw with a tie against Lazio with the second leg being played on home soil for Die Roten. At the back Hansi Flick can turn to Benjamin Pavard, Alphonso Davies and David Alaba knowing that this defence has proved itself on the biggest stage possible. The talented 17-year-old Jamal Musaila looks set to sign a new contract and with Joshua Kimmich returning from injury in the second half of the season Bayern look poised to lift the trophy once again.

Manchester City - 7/2

Just like Bayern Munich, Manchester City topped their group with five wins and a draw from their six matches. With a group consisting of Porto, Marseille and Olympiakos, it wasn’t the sternest of tests for Pep Guardiola’s side and I certainly would not be rushing to back them at what looks an incredibly short 7/2. 

My main issue here is what has happened in the latter stages of previous Champions League campaigns. Pep Guardiola has been known to tactically overthink knockout-phase games and this was the case against Lyon in the semi-final last season where City were given the best chance in their history to reach the final. Monchengladbach are the side who City have been paired against in the last sixteen and I do think they should progress quite comfortably, however with Pep Guardiola not reaching a Champions League final since 2011 at Wembley I’d be avoiding City at this price.

Liverpool - 11/2

One of highlights of the last sixteen draw was Liverpool drawing Red Bull Leipzig in what should be an entertaining two-legged tussle. Klopp’s side are the favourites to progress to the quarter-finals and will be suited by playing the second leg on home turf, even with the likelihood of just a small segment of fans inside Anfield. The Reds will also be buoyant knowing Leipzig travelled to Old Trafford in the group stage and were given a 5-0 thumping.

It’s been an unprecedented year in so many senses and after winning last season’s Premier League title, Liverpool have navigated their way through the sea of uncertainty with an endless injury-list to still be the team to beat in this season’s competition. Although the Reds look likely to progress against Leipzig I think the Germans can cause them some real problems. The injury to Virgil Van Dijk is a huge blow and I fear for their defence when they come up against an attack as potent as Bayern or PSG’s for example. Liverpool have reached the final twice under Jurgen Klopp but the hectic schedule and on-going injury issues could be a deciding factor in stopping the Anfield outfit winning the tournament for a seventh time.

Juventus - 12/1

Heading into the festive season Juventus sit fourth in Serie A after a slow start to life under Andrea Pirlo. Despite being unbeaten in the league the Old Lady of Turin have played out a stalemate in six of their twelve matches. In the group phase, Juventus faced Dynamo Kiev, Ferencvaros and Barcelona and finished top ahead of the Catalans on goal difference. 

With 134 goals from 174 matches in the Champions League it’s hard to write off a team that includes Cristiano Ronaldo. Up against Porto in the round of sixteen you would expect Juventus to qualify which does give them a bit of added appeal here. Alvaro Morata is the current joint top-scorer in this season’s competition with six goals, while Ronaldo isn’t far behind him with four. This is a team that has goals in them and do have a nice blend of experience and youth. At 12/1 Juventus are slightly too short for my liking but it would be no surprise to see them go deep. 

Paris Saint-Germain - 12/1

It was one of the tougher groups that PSG were handed with Manchester United, RB Leipzig and Istanbul Basaksehir but some strong individual performances, notably from Neymar, helped last season’s finalist progress to the knockout stage. The Brazilian has six goals in six games this term and although he has not been at his devastating best this season, Kylian Mbappe still grabbed himself five goal involvements from the five matches he featured in. 

The Parisiens are worth some consideration but they have the small matter of a last sixteen tie against Barcelona to navigate. A side who they have struggled against, famously winning the first round knockout game against them 4-0 in 2017 before going on to lose the second leg 6-1 at the Nou Camp, conceding three goals after the 87th minute in one of the most enthralling matches in the tournament’s history. PSG have the ability to overcome Barca who are enduring a turbulent season on and off the field and with this in mind the 12/1 could shorten considerably before a potential quarter-final. 

Real Madrid - 14/1

Zinedine Zidane has won the Champions League twice as a player and three times as a manager. Los Blancos were beaten twice in their group fixtures against Shakhtar, but pulled out home victories over Inter Milan and Monchengladbach to ensure they were in the hat for the latter stages. 

The draw has been kind to Madrid in my opinion with Atalanta the opposition they are set to face. Real beat Atletico 2-0 in the league on December 12 and are favourites with most bookmakers to claim the La Liga crown. Zidane has until February to really get this side firing and I think they are the biggest threat of all the Spanish teams remaining in the competition this season. 

Chelsea - 14/1

Chelsea enjoyed an unbeaten six matches in Group E as the Blues topped the table, keeping four clean sheets in the process. The highlight was a 4-0 away win against Sevilla, although with a group involving the Spaniards, Rennes and Krasnodar, Chelsea were dealt a favourable hand. 

One of my main questions over Chelsea is Frank Lampard’s pedigree in big matches and their record against better sides. This term Chelsea are yet to beat a team currently placed higher than 12th in the Premier League and I would fear for them against any of the teams priced shorter than Lampard’s men in the outright betting. With Atletico Madrid the team to face Chelsea in the next round I think this could be the end of the road this season against a team who relish the two-legged format.

Barcelona - 16/1

It’s been a rough ride so far at Barcelona for manager Ronald Koeman with issues on and off the pitch. The five-time winners of the Champions League have lost four of their opening eleven matches in La Liga and currently sit in eighth position. As ever there is one constant with Barcelona and that is Lionel Messi’s performance, who has yet again been their shining light this campaign. The little Argentine has the ability and tenacity to single handedly propel his team deep into this season’s renewal.

One serious hurdle for Barcelona is that they face PSG in the round of sixteen and plenty has changed since the sides last met in 2017 when the Catalans came back with three goals in the final five minutes of the game to seal a place in the quarter-finals. Barcelona don’t have the solidity of previous years and I would not be rushing to take the 16/1 that is currently available on them to lift the trophy.

Atletico Madrid - 16/1

Atletico Madrid have reached the final of the Champions League final twice previously under Diego Simeone’s leadership. With just four goals conceded in their first eleven league fixtures this season, the water-tight approach deployed by the manager looks to be paying dividends once again. Atleti are currently level on points with both Real Sociedad and Real Madrid at the top of the La Liga table with two games in hand. They are well placed although trying to win their eleventh league title could hinder their chances of Champions League progression. 

Chelsea are the opponents who Simeone’s side face in the first knockout round. It’s a tough tie for both teams but I’d have Atleti as favourites to progress with their experience in this competition. Currently best priced 18/1 each-way, I think Madrid are worth some consideration in the market and could be worth a small play.

Borussia Dortmund - 20/1

We’re getting into the bigger prices now and with an implied probability of 4.8% to lift the Champions League trophy, Borussia Dortmund come next in the betting at 20/1. Dortmund parted company with Lucien Farve after their 5-1 defeat to Stuttgart with Farve’s former assistant Edin Terzic now in charge.

A favourable draw has been handed to the Germans with a trip to Sevilla on the cards in the round of sixteen. Erling Haaland has six goals in this season’s competition but is ruled out until at least January through injury. I can see Dortmund progressing against Sevilla but I’d be doubtful of them going any further against any of the sides currently priced at 14/1 or shorter. There are a lot of question marks over Dortmund at the moment although they could be worth keeping an eye on in January.

Red Bull Leipzig - 40/1

First up if you are looking to back a team at 40/1 or above I’d certainly be looking to take the ½ odds available each-way. Leipzig dealt Manchester United a knockout blow in Germany on Matchday 6 as they dumped Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side into the Europa League. Julian Nagelsmann, still only 33, is a man who looks to be going places and he will be eagerly awaiting his sides game with Liverpool.

Despite a 5-0 loss to Manchester United at Old Trafford I think Leipzig will really test Liverpool. They have goals from all areas of the pitch, notably with wing-back Angelino scoring seven in all competitions so far this term. It would be some ask for Leipzig to overcome Klopp’s Liverpool and I personally think that the last sixteen is as far as they will go this season.

Sevilla - 40/1 

Sevilla qualified from Group E with relative ease and could afford to rest players for their home fixture with Chelsea, in which they lost 4-0. A tricky tie with Borussia Dortmund awaits Julen Lopetegui's side in February. With a fully fit Erling Haaland and with the attacking talent in Dortmund’s ranks, you would think Edin Terzic’s team would have too much in the final third for Sevilla. Even with a win against the Germans it would be hard to see them advancing any further than the quarter-finals.

Atalanta - 40/1

The boys from Bergamo reached the quarter-finals of the competition last season and they came through a tricky group this time round which included Juventus, Ajax and Midtjylland. It’s been a bride's nightie of a group campaign for Gian Piero Gasperini’s side with plenty of ups and downs, which included a 5-0 home defeat to Liverpool before setting the record straight with a 2-0 win at Anfield. Atalanta have proved they can still play a high level of attacking football on the biggest stage but despite a change in approach over recent weeks, with a defence that can concede five goals at home as they did to Liverpool, I can’t see Atalanta bettering last season’s achievements.

Borussia Monchengladbach - 150/1

After being drawn in Group B with Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Shakhtar Donetsk it looked a tough ask for Gladbach to qualify for the knockout stage of the tournament. The German outfit took a point from their games with Madrid and Inter in Matchday’s One and Two, before completing a double over Shakhtar with a combined score of 10-0. Marcus Thuram and Alassane Plea have been standout performers but with a last sixteen tie against Manchester City it’s hard to see them progressing any further. The calibre of player at Pep’s disposal will most likely be the deciding factor between these two sides over two legs and with Sergio Aguero back fit by that point and Kevin De Bruyne pulling the strings in midfield, you have to fancy the Cityzens.

Porto - 150/1 

Sergio Conceição’s Porto side made it through a group consisting of Manchester City, Marseille and Olympiakos. The Portuguese side kept a remarkable five clean sheets from six games with their only leakage coming in the 3-1 defeat to Manchester City. Although Porto gave a decent account of themselves in those fixtures, it looks tough to see them going any further than the round of sixteen after being drawn against Juventus. The Italians remain unbeaten in Serie A after twelve games and with Cristiano Ronaldo and Alvaro Morata having ten goals between them already in the competition, they will be a huge obstacle to overcome.

Lazio 150/1

The final team heading into the knockout phase are Lazio, who took eight points from their group fixtures with four draws and two wins. Lady luck was not favourable to Simeone Inzaghi’s side, handing them the toughest of all ties in Bayern Munich. Lazio currently sit ninth in their domestic table, a week before Christmas. They have won just one of their last six in all competitions and I expect Bayern to dispatch them with relative ease across two legs. 

Verdict

As mentioned both at the start of the season and at the current stage, it’s hard to see past Bayern Munich (11/4). Their strength in all areas of the pitch and previous experience should put them in good stead to lift the trophy on back-to-back occasions. However, if you are looking for two sides at potential each-way prices I’d be leaning towards both of the clubs from the Spanish capital.

At 14/1 each-way, Real Madrid may not have some of the Galatico’s that have donned the famous white strip over the years, but in Zinedine Zidane they have a leader who knows this competition well and is the only manager to have won the trophy on three consecutive occasions. I think Real will grow into the season and in Sergio Ramos, Karim Benzema, Toni Kroos and Luke Mordic they have pillars of strength who can guide the younger crop through the latter stages. The draw was fairly generous to Madrid, pairing them with Atalanta, where we should see two entertaining matches with some good football on display. If Real have their house in order by February and can avoid Bayern I don’t see any reason why they can’t go deep into the tournament. 

City counterparts Atletico Madrid also look a notable each-way price at 16/1 with most firms. Again we have a manager who has been to numerous finals with experience in the competition, although Diego Simeone has never lifted European club football's most prestigious piece of silverware. In Jan Oblak, Atleti have one of the world’s best keepers who holds the stats to prove it, with a combined 142 clean sheets across 262 La Liga and Champions League matches. The two-legged format suits Simeone and his style of play and with Chelsea next in the competition I think they can keep it tight in the first leg at home before stealing something at Stamford Bridge.