Champions League Betting: Last 16 team-by-team guide with our each-way shouts

The Champions League returns this week after a winter break. Just 16 teams remain in the tournament and here at BettingOdds.com we’ve taken a look at the outright market and have provided you with our team-by-team guide including our best bets from columnist @AnthonyEadson. All of the prices quoted below are with Paddy Power and it’s worth noting that most firms are offering half each-way odds of ½ for a team to reach the final. 

Round of 16 Ties

• Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain
• RB Leipzig v Liverpool
• Porto v Juventus
• Sevilla v Dortmund
• Atletico Madrid v Chelsea
• Lazio v Bayern Munich 
• Atalanta v Real Madrid
• Monchengladbach v Manchester City

Due to the ongoing global pandemic, it’s worth noting there are a few changes in regard to where games will be played with travel restrictions and quarantine periods still being required in certain European countries. There had been talk of switching two a one game format but two-legged ties will remain and we’ve shown the games which will be played in neutral venues below.

• RB Leipzig v Liverpool - 16th February - Now to be played in the Hungarian capital, Budapest. 
• Atletico Madrid v Chelsea - 23rd February - Now to be played in Bucharest, Romania. 
• Borussia Monchengladbach v Manchester City - 24 February - Will also now be played in Budapest, Hungary. 

Bayern Munich - 11/4

After qualifying for the knockout phase with a game to spare whilst giving Atletico Madrid a 4-0 spanking in the group stage it’s hard to look away from the German side repeating their success of last season. We recommended Bayern in our Champions League preview at the start of the campaign and nothing has changed in that department despite Hansi Flick’s conceding in four of their six group games.

With players such as Robert Lewandowski, Thomas Muller, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane, I believe this juggernaut is not for stopping. These are players who come alive in the latter stages of the tournament, especially Thomas Muller, who has 23 goals in 46 knockout matches. In Robert Lewandowski they have last season’s top scorer and despite being three goals behind the leaders this term, the Polish striker could well close that gap in the round of 16, currently priced 6/1 with Unibet in the Champions League top goalscorer betting.

Bayern have been handed a generous draw against Lazio with the second leg being played on home soil for Die Roten. At the back Hansi Flick can turn to Benjamin Pavard, Alphonso Davies and David Alaba knowing that this defence has proved itself on the biggest stage possible. The talented 17-year-old Jamal Musaila looks set to sign a new contract and with Joshua Kimmich returning from injury in the second half of the season Bayern look poised to lift the trophy once again.

Manchester City - 11/4

Just like Bayern Munich, Manchester City topped their group with five wins and a draw from their six matches. With a group consisting of Porto, Marseille and Olympiakos, it wasn’t the sternest of tests for Pep Guardiola’s side and I certainly would not be rushing to back them at what looks an incredibly short 7/2. 

Over the last few months in the Premier League the Cityzens have been nothing short of faultless and set a new English record for winning 15 consecutive games in all competitions. 

My main issue here is what has happened in the latter stages of previous Champions League campaigns. Pep Guardiola has been known to tactically overthink knockout-phase games and this was the case against Lyon in the semi-final last season where City were given the best chance in their history to reach the final.

Monchengladbach are the side who City have been paired against in the last sixteen and I do think they should progress quite comfortably, however with Pep Guardiola not reaching a Champions League final since 2011 at Wembley I’d be avoiding City at this price of 11/4. I also think City’s penalty record is a real cause for concern and could hinder them should they go to a shoot-out in this format!

Liverpool - 7/1

One of highlights of the last sixteen draw was Liverpool drawing Red Bull Leipzig in what should be an entertaining two-legged tussle. Klopp’s side are the favourites to progress to the quarter-finals but with a mini-crisis currently on-going at the club there could be value in the German side’s price to qualify at 2/1.

It’s been an unprecedented year in so many senses and after winning last season’s Premier League title, Liverpool have struggled to put up a defence of the trophy that so many thought they would. Injuries to key players such as Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez left the manager with no choice but to constantly change his centre-back pairings and in total they have used 17 different combinations in all competitions.

The Reds have won just three of their last 12 games in all formats and having looked far from the levels they achieved last season. Fatigue and burnout could all be factors but there’s also no denying that individual errors have cost them of late with Alisson once again at fault in last weekend’s defeat at Leicester City. I fancy Leipzig to give Liverpool a real battle over the two legs, they have already beaten Manchester United 3-2 this season and with no fans at Anfield in the second leg it’s hard to see them producing a comeback that we have seen in the past if required.

Juventus - 12/1

Juventus sit fourth in Serie A after a slow start to life under Andrea Pirlo. Despite being unbeaten in the league until nearly Christmas, Old Lady of Turin have played out a stalemate in six of their first twelve matches. In the group phase, Juventus faced Dynamo Kiev, Ferencvaros and Barcelona and finished top ahead of the Catalans on goal difference. 

With 134 goals from 174 matches in the Champions League it’s hard to write off a team that includes Cristiano Ronaldo. Up against Porto in the round of sixteen you would expect Juventus to qualify which does give them a bit of added appeal here. Alvaro Morata is the current joint top-scorer in this season’s competition with six goals, while Ronaldo isn’t far behind him with four. This is a team that has goals in them and do have a nice blend of experience and youth. At 12/1 Juventus are slightly too short for my liking but it would be no surprise to see them go deep. 

Paris Saint-Germain - 12/1

It was one of the tougher groups that PSG were handed with Manchester United, RB Leipzig and Istanbul Basaksehir but some strong individual performances, notably from Neymar, helped last season’s finalist progress to the knockout stage. The Brazillian has six goals in six games this term and although he has not been at his devastating best this season, Kylian Mbappe still grabbed himself five goal involvements from the five matches he featured in. 

The Parisiens are worth some consideration but they have the small matter of a last sixteen tie against Barcelona to navigate. A side who they have struggled against, famously winning the first round knockout game against them 4-0 in 2017 before going on to lose the second leg 6-1 at the Nou Camp, conceding three goals after the 87th minute in one of the most enthralling matches in the tournament’s history. PSG have the ability to overcome Barca who are enduring a turbulent season but without the influence of Neymar due to injury I fear they could be a little short in the attacking third and fall just short due to the brilliance of Lionel Messi.

Barcelona - 12/1

It’s been a rough ride so far at Barcelona for manager Ronald Koeman with issues on and off the pitch. The five-time winners of the Champions League lost four of their opening eleven matches in La Liga and have climbed their way back to third as the season has progressed.  As ever there is one constant with Barcelona and that is Lionel Messi’s performance, who has yet again been their shining light this campaign. The little Argentine has the ability and tenacity to single handedly propel his team deep into this season’s renewal.

One serious hurdle for Barcelona is that they face PSG in the round of sixteen and plenty has changed since the sides last met in 2017 when the Catalans came back with three goals in the final five minutes of the game to seal a place in the quarter-finals. Barcelona don’t have the solidity of previous years but with no Neymar for the Parisiens I feel this is a good chance for The Catalans to put a few things right and show they are still a dominant force in European football. 

Real Madrid - 16/1

Zinedine Zidane has won the Champions League twice as a player and three times as a manager. Los Blancos were beaten twice in their group fixtures against Shakhtar, but pulled out home victories over Inter Milan and Monchengladbach to ensure they were in the hat for the latter stages. 

The draw has been kind to Madrid in my opinion with Atalanta the opposition they are set to face. Real’s form since Christmas has been patchy to say the least and they find themselves five points behind Atletico in La Liga having played two games more. I still think that Zinedine Zidane’s experience in this competition helped get a tune out of these players in the knockout stage and with natural born winners like Sergio Ramos I would not write them off. 

Chelsea - 16/1

Chelsea enjoyed an unbeaten six matches in Group E as the Blues topped the table, keeping four clean sheets in the process. The highlight was a 4-0 away win against Sevilla, although with a group involving the Spaniards, Rennes and Krasnodar, Chelsea were dealt a favourable hand.

Things have changed quite rapidly at Chelsea in the last month or so and after only beating a team above 10th in the Premier League once between the start of the season and January, Frank Lampard was relieved of his duties with Thomas Tuchel taking over.

The German coach took PSG to their first ever Champions League final last season and will welcome the challenge of facing Diego Simeone in the round of 16. 

With Atletico Madrid the team to face Chelsea in the next round, I think this could be the end of the road this season against a team who relish the two-legged format. The Spaniards are currently top of La Liga and look likely to claim their first title since 2014. Chelsea should put up a decent fight but I feel this game may come too soon for Tuchel as he takes on a well oiled machine in Atletico. 

Atletico Madrid - 16/1

Atletico Madrid have reached the final of the Champions League twice previously under Diego Simeone’s leadership. With just 13 goals conceded in their first 21 league fixtures this season, the water-tight approach deployed by the manager looks to be paying dividends once again. Atleti are currently top of the La Liga table by five points and still have two games in hand on their city rivals Real. They are well placed to go on and win their eleventh league title but it would be to their advantage to get that wrapped with games to spare then they can focus on the Champions League. 

Chelsea are the opponents who Simeone’s side face in the first knockout round. It’s a tough tie for both teams but I’d have Atleti as comfortable favourites to progress with their experience in this competition. Currently best priced 18/1 each-way, I think Madrid are worth some consideration in the market and could be worth a small play.

Borussia Dortmund - 25/1

We’re getting into the bigger prices now and with an implied probability of 4.3% to lift the Champions League trophy, Borussia Dortmund come next in the betting at 22/1. Dortmund parted company with Lucien Farve earlier in the season after their 5-1 defeat to Stuttgart with Farve’s former assistant Edin Terzic now in charge.

The Germans have been out of sorts of late and find themselves in sixth place in the Bundesliga after winning just one of their last six in their domestic league. Sevilla are the opponents that Dortmund will face in the last 16 and based on recent form the Germans will be up against it. Sevilla have won their last nine games and there’s no way I’d be taking the 4/7 about Dortmund qualifying for the next round.

Red Bull Leipzig - 25/1

First up if you are looking to back a team at 40/1 or above I’d certainly be looking to take the ½ odds available each-way. Leipzig dealt Manchester United a knockout blow in Germany on Matchday 6 as they dumped Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side into the Europa League. Julian Nagelsmann, still only 33, is a man who looks to be going places and he will be eagerly awaiting his sides game with Liverpool.

Leipzig have beaten Manchester United 3-2 this season and I think they will really test Liverpool. They have goals from all areas of the pitch, notably with wing-back Angelino scoring seven in all competitions so far this term. Leipzig are currently 9/4 with some bookmakers to qualify for the quarter-finals which looks a big price with Liverpool a worryingly short 1/3, which based on recent form looks a price to avoid.

Sevilla - 40/1 

Sevilla qualified from Group E with relative ease and could afford to rest players for their home fixture with Chelsea, in which they lost 4-0. The Spanish outfit have been superb over recent weeks and are currently on a run of nine consecutive victories in all competitions. Their experience in the Europa League could well help them in this stage of the tournament and I really fancy them against a Dortmund side who have been well off the pace of late. At odds-against, Sevilla could well be one of the bets to qualify from the last-sixteen. 

Atalanta - 40/1

The boys from Bergamo reached the quarter-finals of the competition last season and they came through a tricky group this time round which included Juventus, Ajax and Midtjylland. It’s been a bride's nightie of a group campaign for Gian Piero Gasperini’s side with plenty of ups and downs, which included a 5-0 home defeat to Liverpool before setting the record straight with a 2-0 win at Anfield. Atalanta have proved they can still play a high level of attacking football on the biggest stage but despite a change in approach over recent weeks, with a defence that can concede five goals at home as they did to Liverpool, I can’t see Atalanta bettering last season’s achievements.

Borussia Monchengladbach - 150/1

After being drawn in Group B with Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Shakhtar Donetsk it looked a tough ask for Gladbach to qualify for the knockout stage of the tournament. The German outfit took a point from their games with Madrid and Inter in Matchday’s One and Two, before completing a double over Shakhtar with a combined score of 10-0. Marcus Thuram and Alassane Plea have been standout performers but with a last sixteen tie against Manchester City it’s hard to see them progressing any further. The calibre of player at Pep’s disposal will most likely be the deciding factor between these two sides over two legs and the form that Pep Guardiola’s side have shown of late, it’s hard to not see them progressing. 

Porto - 150/1 

Sergio Conceição’s Porto side made it through a group consisting of Manchester City, Marseille and Olympiakos. The Portuguese side kept a remarkable five clean sheets from six games with their only leakage coming in the 3-1 defeat to Manchester City. Although Porto gave a decent account of themselves in those fixtures, it looks tough to see them going any further than the round of sixteen after being drawn against Juventus. The Italians have built their recent good performances on stability at the back and with Cristiano Ronaldo and Alvaro Morata having ten goals between them already in the competition, they will be a huge obstacle to overcome.

Lazio 150/1

The final team heading into the knockout phase are Lazio, who took eight points from their group fixtures with four draws and two wins. Lady luck was not favourable to Simeone Inzaghi’s side, handing them the toughest of all ties in Bayern Munich. Lazio currently sit ninth in their domestic table, a week before Christmas. They have won just one of their last six in all competitions and I expect Bayern to dispatch them with relative ease across two legs. 

Verdict

As mentioned both at the start of the season and at the current stage, it’s hard to see past Bayern Munich in the Champions League winner betting. Their strength in all areas of the pitch and previous experience should put them in good stead to lift the trophy on back-to-back occasions. However, if you are looking for two sides at potential each-way prices I’d be leaning towards both of the clubs from the Spanish capital.

Atletico Madrid look a notable each-way price at 16/1 with most firms. Again we have a manager who has been to numerous finals with experience in the competition, although Diego Simeone has never lifted European club football's most prestigious piece of silverware. In Jan Oblak, Atleti have one of the world’s best keepers who holds the stats to prove it, with a combined 142 clean sheets across 262 La Liga and Champions League matches. The two-legged format suits Simeone and his style of play and with Chelsea next in the competition I think they can keep it tight and outperform their visitors in the final third. 

Sevilla also deserve an honourable mention here, at 40/1 I don’t believe that Julen Lopetegui’s side can go all the way in this tournament but I’m struggling to not see them progressing against Borussia Dortmund. The Spaniards could well be the best bet of the last 16 to qualify at 5/4 with 11/8 still being offered on the Betfair Exchange. They have won their last nine games in all competitions and have not conceded a goal in seven on the trot. Dortmund on the other hand sit sixth in the Bundesliga and have won just one of their last six league outings.