Burnley v Liverpool Tips: Burnley to rack up the shots against Liverpool

Liverpool will need to secure the lion’s share of the points in their trip to Turf Moor this evening to stand any chance of Champions League qualification and ensure that Alisson Becker's historic header at The Hawthorns will not be in vain.

Jurgen Klopp’s side kept their top-four hopes alive at the weekend in the most dramatic circumstances as their Brazilian keeper nodded one in from a corner in the last few seconds of the game. It means that if the visitors can win this evening, they will go level on points with fourth placed Leicester and to within a point of Chelsea going into the season's finale. 

As has been the case for the majority of the season, the Reds have a lengthy list of absentees. In order to combat the shot's cumbersome attack, Fabinho could drop in alongside Nathaniel Phillips at centre back at the expense of Rhys Williams. 

As for Burnley, Sean Dyche is unlikely to risk Nick Pope with Euro 2020 on the horizon. Elsewhere, Jay Rodriguez, and Johann Gudmundsson are also pushing for starts here, however, I suspect Josh Brownhill will keep his spot on the right and Ashley Barnes will start up top.

At the prices available, I don’t think many people will be getting Liverpool onside for their trip to Turf Moor this evening. It’s worth noting that they were just as short to beat the Baggies at the weekend and, as I am sure you are all aware, it took a 95th minute winner from their goalkeeper Allison to secure three points there. They were also painfully short for their bout with Newcastle, which ended all square. 

Given how short the visitors are, there are plenty of tasty Burnley prices knocking about and at 11/1 with Unibet, I would not want to put anyone off backing a home victory here. However, I am going to play it safer and opt to back Dyche’s men with a 1.75 goal head start on the Asian Handicap. The bet is a winner if Burnley win, draw or lose by one goal, we get half of our stake back if they lose by two goals and the bet is a loser if Liverpool beat them by three or more goals. 

Burnley have played 13 domestic fixtures against the leagues ‘big six’ teams and Leicester this season - Arsenal, Spurs, Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester - and despite only winning on two occasions, this bet would have landed in six of those games which includes the reverse of this fixture. 

It may come as no surprise in their woefully inconsistent campaign that Liverpool have a terrible record against the top flights basement boys. They have played 14 fixtures against the league's bottom eight sides, winning just four. During which this bet would have only lost in their 7-0 demolition of Crystal Palace. 

This campaign, Ashley Westwood has averaged 0.6 shots per game in the Premier League. In his last ten starts he has racked up 12 shots, averaging 1.2 per game meeting this line in 80% of those appearances. In his most recent app vs Leeds, he registered three shots, all of which from outside the box which illustrates the fact that he is more than happy to try his luck. 

At even money with Betfair, I think this is worthy of a tout, however, it is worth noting he is a fraction longer with Sky Bet so it may be worth shopping around for the best price.

At 9/1, Burnley’s price to register 14 or more shots certainly appeals with Betfair, especially considering that Sky Bet have them to register 15 shots at 11/2. Domestically, the Clarets have hit this line in 28% of their fixtures, however, at 9/1 the implied probability of them doing it this evening is just 10%. 

Dyche’s side have hit 14 or more shots in four of their last eight games, accumulating 104 efforts over that period. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.