Burnley vs. Southampton Predictions: Two bets for Thursday's sole Premier League game
Burnley vs Southampton Odds
Thursday night's only bit of Premier League action takes place at Turf Moor where Burnley welcome Southampton at 19:45 live on Sky Sports.
Burnley vs Southampton Tips
The hosts may feel aggrieved that they did not get more than a point on Sunday during their trip to West Ham based on the balance of play. Perhaps life after Sean Dyche would have started with three huge points as well, if Maxwel Cornet did not drag his first half penalty wide.
With both sides at odds of 17/10, the bookies are giving them both equal expected chance of victory, however, given the contrasting importance of this clash I would stay well clear of the 1X2.
As it stands, the Clarets languish in eighteenth, three points behind Everton in seventeenth though the latter have a game in hand. The Saints sit comfortably in mid-table, 14 points above the drop, with very little to play for.
In terms of discipline, these sides have been almost inseparable this season. Both Burnley and the Saints have both amassed 56 yellow cards, the former has received one red card, the latter two.
In their last six head-to-heads, there has only been an average of 2.1 cards per game, with the sides drawing the card count in half of those fixtures over that period. While it is worth pointing out that Burnley did win the count in the other three games, this bet is purely about the contrasting importance of this fixture for both sides.
Given that they currently sit the wrong side of the dotted line, this is a must win for the hosts- as is all of their remaining match- and I think this added pressure and intensity to their game could potentially yield some cards.
Under their predecessor, Burnley were considered a rough team. Lazy- and incorrect- connotations that you would expect from a side that was constantly punching above their budget, played 4-4-2 and who’s squad largely consisted of players born in Great Britain.
The foundation of Dyche’s success though was largely built on discipline, guile and composure, three things that may be found lacking as this Burnley side drift towards the Championship under the tutelage of a comparatively under experienced boss.
No player in Burnley’s squad has picked up more cards than Josh Brownhill this campaign, domestically. The Clarets central midfielder has accumulated nine bookings in 25 appearances, a tally that only Yves Bissouma (10) can top in the Premier League.
Since making the switch from Bristol City, he only picked up four cards in his first 43 appearances, stretching across two seasons.
With his fouls per game average marginally down from last season to this- he is committing 0.04 less per 90 to be exact- there is no obvious reason for the flurry of cards. His tackle per 90 average has risen by 0.5 per 90 though so the simple answer may be just that he is putting himself about more.
Nevertheless, if you were to base his price for a card purely off of his card per 90 average from this season (0.35), anything around 2/1 would represent value. This goes a little way to explaining why he is as short as 9/4 with Bet365 and also makes the 4/1 available worth a punt.
Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.
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