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Brighton v Manchester United Tips: Value in the shots market as Seagulls seek revenge

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's could make wholesale changes for the game with Juan Mata coming in who features in our football tips for the evening
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's could make wholesale changes for the game with Juan Mata coming in who features in our football tips for the evening

Manchester United take on Brighton at the Amex Stadium for the second time in five days on Wednesday evening as the pair face off in the Carabao Cup fourth round. Graham Potter’s side will be seeking revenge after United took the three points on Saturday in one of the most bizarre Premier League games to date.

The Seagulls had taken the lead courtesy of a Neil Maupay penalty, only for United to come back and score two goals. The home side managed to hit the woodwork an incredible five times during the game - a new Premier League record. Solly March then popped up with an equaliser in the 95th minute before United were awarded a controversial penalty in the 99th minute, resulting in Bruno Fernandes once again converting from the spot to win the game.

Both managers are set to make wholesale changes for Wednesday’s game with Brandon Williams, Dean Henderson, Juan Mata, Donny van de Beek and Fred all expected to start the clash for the visitors. Yves Bissouma is still serving a one match ban for Brighton, but there could be places in the starting line-up for Pascal Gross, Davy Propper and Alireza Jahanbakhsh.

Having a look at the match prices, Brighton have been given a 25% implied chance of winning the game with odds of 3/1 from most bookmakers. The draw is available at 11/4 with the game going straight to penalties if this happens. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side are priced at 4/5 for the win to take them into the quarter-finals, an implied probability of 55%.

With so many changes guaranteed from each side in this game it may be worth waiting until team news is released an hour before kick-off or checking to see if you have a cash-out option available for if the players involved in your bets do not start. I’ve picked out three selections I like the look of as part of my football tips for this week.

Juan Mata 1+ shot on target - 1.5pts @ 13/10 Betfair / Paddy Power

Donny van de Beek 2+ shots on target - 0.5pts @ 10/1 Betfair / Paddy Power

Ighalo & Jahanbakhsh 1+ shot on target, Fred & Gross to be carded - 0.25pts @ 95/1 Paddy Power

Brighton V Manchester United Tip #1
Juan Mata 1+ shot in target
Juan Mata has registered at least two shots on target on four occasions in Cup matches for Man United in 2020 He scored from the spot against Luton last week and should be on penalty duty again this evening with Fernandes rested
Odds correct as of 2020-09-30 12:05 Odds subject to change.

The first of three picks for Brighton v Manchester United is Juan Mata to have one or more shots on target, priced at 13/10 with both Betfair and Paddy Power. Now at the ripe old age of 32 it’s rare that Juan Mata seems to get a place in the starting line-up in the Premier League. He’s still amassed 168 appearances for United and over the last year or so has been much more prominent in cup competitions.

In this calendar year Mata has racked up two or more shots on target on four occasions when he has started in cup competitions, most recently last week in the Carabao Cup against Luton. The Spaniard had three shots on target that evening, including a penalty which he scored. With Bruno Fernandes rested I’m sure Mata will once again be the chosen penalty taker if called upon, which makes him a little overpriced in the SOT market for me. At 13/10 to have one or more on target in the game with Paddy Power this looks a potentially profitable play.

Brighton V Manchester United Tip #2
Donny van de Beek 1+ shot on target
Van De Beek scored in the 23 minutes he played against Crystal Palace in gameweek one of the PL He started behind the striker last week in the Carabao Cup registering one on target He scored 8 goals in 18 appearances for Ajax last season
Odds correct as of 2020-09-30 12:35 Odds subject to change.

I’m dipping my toe once again into the shots on target for my second selection, with Donny van de Beek to register two or more on target at 10/1. The 23-year-old scored eight league goals for the Dutch champions last season in just 22 games. I’m backing Donny to have a positive first season in England and I think tonight is a good opportunity for him to run riot against a potentially weakened Brighton side.

In gameweek one of the Premier League, van de Beek came off the bench with 20 minutes to go and managed to slot home his first goal. He then started against Luton last Wednesday, landing one shot on target before he was subbed in the second half. There’s a real contrast in pricing around DVB in the shots on target market with SkyBet having 2 or more shots on target for the Dutchman priced at 21/10. Betfair and Paddy Power have this same selection three times bigger at 10/1 which looks a tasty prospect for a small play this evening,

Premier League Top 4 Odds
Brighton V Manchester United Tip #3
Ighalo & Jahanbakhsh 1+ shot on target, Fred & Gross to be carded
Ighalo registered at least one shot on target in all five of his starts for United last season Jahanbakhsh has scored in both of his EFL cup games so far this season Fred was booked 8 times in 29 League appearances last season Gross was carded 4 times in 22 starts in 19/20
Odds correct as of 2020-09-30 12:35 Odds subject to change.

The League Cup can be a lottery at times and I’ve gone for a home run with a 95/1 longshot from Paddy Power to round off proceedings; made up of Odion Ighalo and Alireza Jahanbakhsh to have one or more shots on target with Pascal Gross and Fred to be carded.

Odion Ighalo registered one or more shots on target in all of the five games he started for Manchester United after arriving in January. Yes, that was this year and that does seem a lifetime ago, however the Nigerian is expected to start as the main striker for the Reds against Brighton and he’s the first name I’m including here, to have one or more shots on target.

For Brighton I’ve opted for Alireza Jahanbakhsh to have one or more shots on target during the game. The Iranian forward has scored in both of Brighton’s Carabao Cup games this season and looks a reasonable prospect at 4/7 to hit the target with Brighton looking for some consolation after Saturday’s loss.

Moving onto the bookings and the first name I’m throwing into the mix is Fred of Manchester United. No player was booked in the league more times at Manchester United than the Brazilian last season. He tied level on eight with Aaron Wan-Bissaka but Fred in fact only featured in 29 of those in comparison to AWB with 35. At 4/1 he looks a respectable price to pick up a card on the south coast on Wednesday night.

Pascal Gross is expected to return to the starting line-up for Brighton and could potentially play behind the striker here. I’m expecting him to have to do plenty of defensive duties against United and at 5/1 as a single he looks a good prospect for a card. The German was booked four times in 22 starts in the Premier League last season and he’s the final name on the list to potentially bring home this 95/1 shot. 

The game can be seen live on Sky Sports, kicking off at 19:45. Best of luck to those following the selections, and as always, please remember to gamble responsibly.  

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