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Brighton v Manchester United Tips: 12 reasons to bet on United from the spot

Pogba features in our Brighton v Manchester United tips.
Pogba features in our Brighton v Manchester United tips.

After triumphing in extra-time to reach the FA Cup semi-finals at the weekend, Manchester United will switch their attention back to trying to finish in the top-four as they make the trip down to the south coast to face Brighton. 

United can move back above Wolves into fifth-place and just two points behind Chelsea were they to take all three points at The Amex on Tuesday evening with Betfair going 7/10 for Solskjaer's side to win. The draw is priced at around 11/4, with bet365 and several other firms giving Brighton an 18% chance of a win at 9/2 in the betting odds. The game can be seen on Sky Sports Premier League but can also be viewed by Freeview customers on ‘Pick’, channel 11.

When I saw Brighton’s first three fixtures after the restart of Arsenal, Leicester and Manchester United I really feared for their survival in the Premier League. However with three points against the Gunners and an excellent point on the road at Leicester they now sit six points above the drop zone and as big as 40/1 in the Premier League relegation betting and could potentially lengthen that gap with a win against United. 

The Red Devils grabbed a well-earned draw at Spurs and managed a 3-0 win at home to Sheffield United last week before the extra-time win over Norwich in the FA Cup this weekend just gone. 

I see this being quite a tight affair with Brighton showing some real fight in the last couple of weeks, qualities that we’ve not seen for much of the campaign which had left me fearing for them. United appear to have really turned a corner since the arrival of Bruno Fernandes, and are playing with a pace and fluidity that has been missing in recent times. Despite this I see it being a low-scoring game with Brighton looking to nullify United’s attacking options. It’s worth noting that the Seagulls have won their last two against Ole Gunnar Solksjaer's side at home and I’ve picked out three Brighton v Manchester United tips which can be found below.

In terms of team news, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has announced that Angel Gomes will be leaving the club as he is out of contract from tomorrow, with Axel Tuanzebe and Phil Jones still sidelined. OGS made eight changes in the cup tie against Norwich and we are expecting wholesale changes once again with several players having played the full 120 minutes. Brighton gave a debut to youngster Tariq Lamptey against Leicester and he was exceptional, completing more attempted take-ons than any other player on the pitch, however he is a doubt for tomorrow evening due to the face injury he received against the Foxes.

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Brighton v Manchester United Tip #1
Manchester United to Win & Under 3.5 goals
WIN PROB: 42.02%
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Why this Tip?

All 4 of United's last 4 league wins have seen under 3.5 goals 

88% of Premier League games since the restart have seen under 3.5 goals

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-06-29 17:00 Odds subject to change.

My first selection for this one is Manchester United to win and under 3.5 goals at 11/8 with Betfair.

A staggering 21 out of 24 games since the resumption of the Premier League have seen a total of under 3.5 goals, a whopping 88%, and I’m fancying this one to go the same way with United coming out on top. As mentioned above I feared for Brighton when seeing their remaining fixtures, but they have shown both heart and head in their recent two fixtures proving they have the discipline and organisational skills to stay in the league. I see them frustrating United for long spells of the game with the first goal being absolutely paramount for either side. 

Football Tips

Solskjaer has a large squad at his disposal and I see his team rotation being one of the key angles here, after making eight changes in the cup I’m expecting to see the return of Anthony Martial who was as sharp as ever when scoring the club’s first hat-trick since 2013 last week. Martial, Pogba and Rashford all featured from the bench at the weekend and I think all three could be in line for starts on Tuesday and will make a huge difference if they do. 

All four of United’s last four wins in the league have included under 3.5 goals and having a look at the prices I can see PaddyPower are 11/10 for this whilst Betfred go 6/5, making the 11/8 boost on offer from Betfair look very generous. I’ve enjoyed some success since the restart with the result and ‘unders’ market, most recently with the 11/10 on a Wolves win and under 4.5 goals against Villa on Saturday and I’m hoping this similar route in, can keep the positive and profitable run going. 

Brighton v Manchester United Tip #2
Manchester United to score a penalty
WIN PROB: 16.67%
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Why this Tip?

United have been awarded 16 penalties this season

United have scored 12 penalties this season

The pace and trickery of United's attackers could be key. 

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-06-29 17:00 Odds subject to change.

Manchester United have been awarded an astonishing 16 penalties in all competitions this year and have converted 12 of those. A stat that quite frankly hurts my head when I think back to how they went 23 games without one before Zlatan slotted one in back in 2017. My play here for the game is Man United to score a penalty which at the time of writing is available at 11/2 with Bet365 and 5/1 with Betfair.

11 of those 16 penalties this season have come in the Premier League to which it’s no surprise to hear is more than any other team, with Manchester City being awarded nine who come closest to the Reds. The only team in the league not to be awarded a penalty this season is Everton and one reason for this may be due to the high amount of headers they have scored this season with 32% of their goals scored coming via the head. 

Paul Pogba has looked lively at times with some dancing runs into the box when he’s been on the pitch and he’s just one of the tricky forward-thinking players United possess who Brighton will have to deal with. The pace of United’s attackers also comes into play here and it would be no surprise to see one of Brighton’s defenders such as Dunk, Duffy or Burn leave a leg out and give away a penalty. At the price of 11/2 with bet365 I feel this is a backable price and one I’d like to be involved with for the game.

Brighton v Manchester United Tip #3
Pogba 2+ Shots on Target, Dunk to be carded
WIN PROB: 3.85%
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Why this Tip?

Pogba managed 2 shots on target when coming off the bench against Norwich and has look lively when seen since the restart.,

Lewis Dunk has been booked nine times this season, more than anyone else in the Brighton Squad

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-06-29 17:00 Odds subject to change.

My final selection for this one is a bit of a longshot, as usual I’ll put something up at a big price for those punters who like to swing from the fences, and this one pays 25/1 with PaddyPower for Paul Pogba to have 2 or more shots on target and Lewis Dunk to be carded. Bruno Fernandes could well be rested after starting every game since the restart including playing 120 minutes against Norwich; this could pave the way for Paul Pogba to come back in and play a slightly more advanced role for the Reds. The Frenchman has been lively whenever I’ve seen him since restart and when coming off the bench against Norwich he managed three shots on goal with two of them hitting the target. Many ‘tele-reds’ are salivating over the thought of Pogba and Fernandes playing at the peak of their powers in that centre of the park pairing and I’m backing Pogba to have a good solid end of the season. He opened up at 9/2 for 2+ shots on target with Betfair and that’s been nibbled at already (partly by myself) and now sits at 7/2 as a single. 

I’m doubling this up with Brighton’s Lewis Dunk to be carded. The 28 year-old who was born just eight days after myself has been booked nine times in the league this season, the most of any Brighton player with only Jorginho having picked up more in the league. If you are fancying this one as a bit of a single, bet365 appear to have priced him up with 17/2 with several bookmakers pricing him as short as 5/2 in their football odds. However the double with PaddyPower on Pogba to have two or more shots on target and Lewis Dunk to be carded looks a decent shout to me at 25/1. As always, enjoy the match even if we are hoping for there to be under 3.5 goals and please remember to always gamble responsibly.

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