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Brighton v Manchester United Tips: Pogba an attractive proposition in the shots on target market

Brighton v Manchester United Tips: Paul Pogba features our tips for Saturday's clash at the Amex
Brighton v Manchester United Tips: Paul Pogba features our tips for Saturday's clash at the Amex

There’s four matches in the Premier League this Saturday, with the first of those coming at 12:30pm from down on the south coast as Brighton take on Manchester United. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side were well off the pace against Crystal Palace at Old Trafford, losing 3-1 in their first game of the season. The Red Devils will be desperate to get three points on the board here but with match sharpness lacking, it could open the door for Brighton.

Graham Potter’s side endured a home defeat to Chelsea in their opening game before a convincing 3-0 win at Newcastle last weekend - Neal Maupay bagging himself a brace against the Magpies. Tariq Lamptey has looked phenomenal in the opening two matches this campaign but is a doubt ahead of the visit from United due to a slight groin problem he picked up last time out. Yves Bissouma will miss the game through suspension after picking up a red card for a high tackle in that game. 

Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes and Mason Greenwood all came off the bench against Luton midweek and should be back in the starting eleven on Saturday lunchtime. Donny van de Beek is expected to drop to the bench which paves the way for Scott McTominay or Nemanja Matic to fill in.

Brighton won both of their home games against Manchester United in 2018 and three points for the home side again on Saturday is priced at 4/1 with William Hill. The draw is available to be backed at 11/4, while a win for Manchester United has been given an implied chance of 58%, with odds of 8/11 from most firms. I’ve had a look through the betting markets for the game and have picked out three football tips which I think look good value for the game. 

Paul Pogba 1+ shot on target - 2pts @ 7/5 Betfair / Paddy Power

Manchester United to score a penalty - 1pts @ 5/1 bet365

Fernandes & Maupay 1+ shot on target, Maguire & Dunk to be carded - 0.5pts @ 45/1 Paddy Power

Brighton v Manchester United Tip #1
Paul Pogba to have one or more shots on target
Pogba registered 2 shots on target against Crystal Palace last week The emphasis Brighton put on closing down Bruno Fernandes should allow Pogba space on the edge of the area
Odds correct as of 2020-09-24 14:35 Odds subject to change.

The first selection I’ve picked out for Brighton v Manchester United is Paul Pogba to have one or more shots on target, priced at 7/5 with both Betfair and Paddy Power. After a turbulent 2019/20 season I’m backing the French midfielder to get back his best this term. There were signs of improvement towards the end of the last campaign and he does appear to be more settled on the pitch. 

Against Crystal Palace last weekend Paul Pogba registered two shots on target. He was priced at 11/10 to manage one shot on target that day, and 11/2 to land two with Paddy Power - both of which landed. Being away from home he’s priced a shade bigger against Brighton at 7/5 for one shot on target, which in my opinion is still a very attractive proposition. The emphasis that teams have to put on closing down Bruno Fernandes is a real plus for Pogba’s shooting prospects. That gives us an edge here and I believe he can pick up pockets of space around the edge of the area and land one on target against Brighton. 

Brighton v Manchester United Tip #2
Manchester United to score a penalty
United were awarded 14 penalties in the Premier League last season Referee Chris Kavanagh ranked fifth out of 20 Premier League referees for the most penalties awarded in 19/20
Odds correct as of 2020-09-24 14:35 Odds subject to change.

Next up I’m backing Manchester United to score a penalty at odds of 5/1 with bet365. Chris Cavanagh will be the man in the middle for the game at the Amex. Out of the 20 referees who took charge of Premier League games last season, only four gave out more penalties than Chris Cavanagh. He’s no stranger to pointing to the spot and with the trickery of United’s frontline I can see him giving away one against Brighton on Saturday.

It was well documented last season that Manchester United received more penalties than any other team in the Premier League. In total, The Red Devils were awarded 14 penalties throughout the campaign, scoring 10 of those. Since Bruno Fernandes arrived though, the Portugese midfielder is yet to miss one, scoring a remarkable eight spot-kicks in all competitions from January through until the end of the season. The same selection is priced at 7/2 with Betfair giving plenty of appeal to the 5/1 on offer from bet365.

Premier League Top Four Odds
Brighton v Manchester United Tip #3
Fernandes & Maupay 1+ shot on target, Dunk & Maguire to be carded
Fernandes registered 18 shots on target in 14 PL games last season Maupay scored a brace against Newcastle and also takes penalties Maguire picked up six yellow cards in 19/20 and was booked in the first game against Palace No player collected more yellow cards for Brighton than Lewis Dunk last season with nine
Odds correct as of 2020-09-24 14:40 Odds subject to change.

My longshot for the afternoon comes in the form of both Bruno Fernandes & Neil Maupay to have a shot on target, with Lewis Dunk & Harry Maguire to be carded priced at 45/1 with Paddy Power.

Bruno Fernandes helped guide Manchester United to a third place finish last season. He was instrumental in their change of fortunes and putting together a good run of results in the second half of the campaign. He registered 18 shots on target in 14 league games in 19/20, averaging well over one a game. He’s a set piece taker and the first name to go into this Same Game Multi.

For Brighton, I’m backing Neal Maupay to register one or more shots on target. The Frenchman was on the scoresheet twice last weekend in the 3-0 win at Newcastle, putting in a man of the match performance, registering three shots on target. He’s Brighton’s biggest threat in front of goal and he should nick a couple of chances against United.

Marking Maupay should be Harry Maguire and I fancy him to pick up a card off Chris Cavanagh. Maguire picked up six yellow cards in the league last season and also collected one against Crystal Palace last weekend. He’s up against Maupay who can be a pest for defenders and is not afraid to wind them up. Maguire looks a reasonable price to pick up a card, priced at 4/1 as a single.

The final element of this 45/1 shot is Brighton’s Lewis Dunk to be carded. The 6ft 3 centre-half picked up more yellow cards than any other Brighton player in 2019/20 with nine. United’s pacey front three have the ability to run rings round anyone on their day and have the potential to give Lewis Dunk a long afternoon, which could result in the Englishman picking up a caution thanks to a late sloppy challenge. 

Best of luck to those following, the game can be seen live on BT Sport kicking off at 12:30. Please remember to gamble responsibly.

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