Brighton vs. Nottingham Forest Betting Tips: Back Toffolo to be carded on the South Coast

Both Brighton and Nottingham Forest suffered defeats over the weekend. Roberto De Zerbi’s side suffered a 2-0 defeat at the Brentford Community Stadium on Friday night despite a hugely dominant 90 minutes in terms of statistics, but a severe lack of finishing was to blame. 

Wolves won for just the second time on Saturday afternoon as they beat a Forest side who lost for the sixth time in seven. Brennan Johnson missed a penalty late on which may have earned his side a draw in the evenly contested affair.

Despite Brighton’s lack of quality in front of goal on Friday night, the bookmakers are hugely confident that they can turn things around, with the Seagulls best priced at 2/5 to earn maximum points at the Amex. An out of favour Forest are right in the dumps and desperately need a victory, they’re as big as 8/1 to cause an upset here in what would be their second win of the campaign.

I’m leaning towards a corner and card combination for my main selection. I expect the hosts to have plenty of possession and will want to push Forest back as much as they possibly can. Brighton have played four games at home this season and have taken 28 corners in total, which has seen six or more land in three of those four matches.

Steve Cooper’s side are familiar with allowing a fair few corners on their travels, they have conceded 37 corners in just five away matches. Wolves were the only side to not hit six corners in those five matches.

Again, just like corners the cards have been a frequent occurrence for these two sides especially with the visitors. Newly promoted Forest have played 11 matches this season and have been carded multiple times in 10 of those matches. The only exception came against Man City where they saw just one card that day in a 6-0 hammering. Seven of Brighton’s nine opponents have been cautioned more than once this season.

At a price of 4/1 I’m backing Harry Toffolo to pick up his first caution of the season, as he should be kept busy against a lively Brighton forward line. Toffolo should start at left back just as he’s done in back to back games as Renan Lodi is out injured.

Interestingly, five of the nine starting left back’s against Brighton have found themselves in the referee’s book this term. Toffolo is the largest price to be shown a card amongst his team excluding goalkeepers which seems reasonable given the record against the Seagulls.

In the six matches the defender has started he has played every minute except two which provides some comfort when backing an individual player card, Forest will be desperate to earn some points here and the players will do anything in their powers to record a positive result.