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Brentford v Swansea Tips: Back Brentford in last game at Griffin Park

Andre Ayew registered three shots on target in the first leg and features in our 33/1 longshot
Andre Ayew registered three shots on target in the first leg and features in our 33/1 longshot

Brentford have it all to do on Wednesday night if they are to turn around a 1-0 deficit from the first leg to reach the Championship playoff final. A superb Jordan Ayew strike provided the Swans with victory in South Wales at the weekend and this one looks a real tasty one at Griffin Park.

The fact that both these teams have ended up in the playoffs is quite astonishing. Brentford had the opportunity to gain automatic promotion only to crumble at the last minute against resilient Stoke and Barnsley sides. Swansea flew up into sixth place to claim that final playoff spot at the very last minute with a 4-1 away win at Reading, meaning they reached the playoff by a solitary goal. Confidence must surely be high for Steve Cooper’s boys, but I think when it comes to facing The Bees on their own turf, it will be a much sterner test.

Having a look at the match prices for this one and Brentford have been made the 6/10 favourites, an implied win percentage of 63%. The draw can be backed at 3/1, with Salford-born bookmaker Betfred going with the current top price of 5/1 for a massive win for Swansea. 

It’s also worth mentioning the Championship Promotion market here. After Fulham’s 2-0 win at Cardiff they are now just 10/11 to reach the Premier League next season. Brentford are a general 2/1 with most firms, while Swansea remain 4/1 despite being 1-0 up against the Bees. For Cardiff to do the unthinkable and turnover an almighty first leg deficit but winning the final is priced at rather large 25/1. As usual I’ve cast my eye over the markets for this one and have picked out three selections that I like the look of and could represent a bit of value.

Brentford v Swansea Tip #1
Watkins & Brewster 1+ shot on target
Watkins has scored 25 league goals this season Brewster averages 1.1 shots on target per game
Odds correct as of 2020-07-28 17:00 Odds subject to change.

For my first selection here I’m going for Ollie Watkins and Rhian Brewster both to have one or more shots on target, priced at evens with Betfair. 

Ollie Watkins has been superb for Brentford this season. He’s netted an outstanding 25 goals in the league, just one behind Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic who tops the charts with 26. Having a look into his numbers this season, Watkins has the 7th highest shots per game average of any player in the Championship, and when it comes to shots on target he is averaging 1.1 per game. I think shots could be raining down on Swansea’s goal here and I’m backing Watkins to land at least one on target.

Completing this little double is Rhian Brewster also to land one shot on target inside 90 minutes. The Liverpool loanee has been instrumental in helping propel Steve Cooper’s side into the playoff places since arriving in January. He’s scored an impressive 10 goals in 20 games in the league, and is a young man who is full of confidence at the moment. Brewster is also averaging more than a shot on target per game since he has arrived (1.1)  and looks the biggest threat in front of goal. Betfair have given this one a little boost from 5/6 up to even money which I’ll be having a dabble on.

Brentford v Swansea Tip #2
Correct Score 2-1
Brentford have scored the most goals in the Championship this season and should see most of the ball here Swansea have scored in eight of their last nine and have Andre Ayew and Rhian Brewster in great form in front of goal
Odds correct as of 2020-07-28 17:05 Odds subject to change.

I’ve opted for a correct score of 2-1 to Brentford for my second selection here at 15/2 with bet365. No team has scored more goals in the Championship than Brentford this season (88) and only Leeds have taken more points on home turf throughout the campaign. I think the host’s attack will see them through here despite the recent disappointment of missing out on automatic promotion. In Ollie Watkins, Said Benrahma and Bryan Mbuemo they have possessed one of the most potent attacks in the division this campaign, with the trio amassing 57 goals between them. 

With Brentford’s need to attack here I do think it will create an open game in the second half which could give Swansea potential counter-attacking opportunities. The Welsh outfit have found the net in eight of their last nine fixtures, winning five of those. Swansea have travelled well this year and sit fourth in the table based on away results. I think they’ll find the back of the net here, and 2-1 looks the bet to me at 15/2. With this being the last game for Brentford at their current home Griffin Park, It would be a fitting end to 116 years of football to bow out on a win to help them progress to Wembley, however it’s worth noting here that a 2-1 scoreline would take us into extra-time.

Brentford v Swansea Tip #3
Benrahma & Ayew 1+ shot on target, Norgaard & Fulton to be carded
Benrahma averages the most shots per game of any player in the Championship this year Ayew managed three shots on target in the first leg Norgaard has committed more fouls and been booked more times than any Brentford player this season Fulton has been booked more times than any Swansea player this season
Odds correct as of 2020-07-28 17:10 Odds subject to change.

Rounding my three tips off is a 33/1 Same Game Multi from Paddy Power, made up for Said Benrahma and Andre Ayew to have one or more shots on target with both Christian Norgaard and Jay Fulton to be carded.

No player in the Championship has averaged more shots per game than Brentford’s Said Benrahma this season (3.9). The Algerian forward has enjoyed a fantastic season with 17 goals and eight assists and with him playing down the middle of a front three, he looks the most likely of the host’s attack to land a shot on target.

Next up I’ve got Swansea’s Andre Ayew to have one or more shots on target. The Ghana international was on the scoresheet in the first leg after missing a penalty. He took a total of five shots in the first leg with three of those being registered as on target. He looks a respectable price at 8/11 to go into our longshot for the evening.

Onto the cards and for The Bees, I’ve opted for usual suspect Christian Norgaard. The Dane has been booked 10 times in the league this season and when it comes to fouls, nobody averages more at Brentford than Norgaard with 1.8 per game. With so much on the line here I expect plenty of cards to be shown by Chris Kavanagh.

Swansea’s Jay Fulton has been booked more than any other player in his squad this season. Just like Norgaard, Fulton has also reached double figures this season with 10. With Brentford likely to be doing most of the attacking, I think Swansea will be without the ball for long periods and it would be no surprise to see Fulton carded to round off this 33/1 shout. 

You may have noticed that I’ve used a points based system here with my bets. This allows the person recommending the bets to express their confidence and strength of selection through how many points they are recommending to place on it.

Points staking is generally used as most punters will bet different amounts. For example, using a 1-5 point system. 

Punter A’s general bet (1 point)  is £1, whereas Punter B’s general bet (1 point) is £10.

So if someone were to suggest to them have a 2 points bet on Ronaldo to score first, Punter A will have a £2 bet on it, and Punter B will have £20 on it, but both will have have actually staked 2 points on it

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