Brentford vs. Everton Betting Tips: Holgate to pick up another card on his travels

Brentford welcome Everton to London on Saturday afternoon with the game kicking off at 3pm. After a profitable preview on the Brentford vs Fulham game last weekend, we’ve once again asked @AnthonyEadson to provide us with his best bets for the action. 

Thomas Frank will have been gutted to see his side concede a 90th minute winner to the Cottagers last weekend after fighting back from two goals down. The Bees also came back from two down on the opening day of the season to earn a point against Leicester, before that memorable 4-0 win over Manchester United. 

Everton got their first point of the campaign on the board last Sunday after Demarai Gray netted in the 89th minute following a brilliant assist from goalkeeper Jordan Pickford. Frank Lampard needs his side to start winning and fast, if they are not to endure another relegation threatened season like last time out, although his life is not being made any easier with strong rumours about a potential switch to Stamford Bridge for Anthony Gordon. 

Moving onto team news and for the hosts Ethan Pinnock and Sergi Canos are the only confirmed absentees, with Kristoffer Ajer reportedly close to returning to the side after an injury a few weeks ago. 

Everton on the other hand have as many as seven players missing for this match. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Yerry Mina, Abdoulaye Doucoure, Tom Davies, Ben Godfrey and Andros Townsend will all miss the trip to the capital, while Andre Gomes remains a doubt.

First up I’m using the bet365 Bet Builder feature to create a 2/1 poke which I feel will go very close on Saturday. Followers of my picks here on BettingOdds will be aware that I’ve been drawn to Bryan Mbeumo in various shot markets quite a lot over the last year. I do feel the bookies have taken a lot out of his prices recently, but there’s still some juice left available in my opinion and I’m backing him to have 2+ shots and 1+ shot on target against Everton.

This double of 2+ shots and 1+ on target has landed in all three of the Frenchman’s Premier League matches so far this season. Mbeumo let off an impressive 77 shots in the league last season, with only 14 players bettering that total. His xG figure of 9.7 showed a large underperformance as he only found the back of the net four times, but I expect that to rise this season. In total, this little pairing of 2+ shots and 1+ on target has landed in Mbeumo’s last five matches and in 11 of his last 14 looking back further into the previous campaign.

I’ll also be including both teams to receive a card in the match to increase the odds to a very backable 2/1. Referee John Brooks takes the whistle for this one, and although he only officiated four top-flight matches last term, Brooks dished out 21 yellow cards. He’s taken control of one Premier League match this season where he gave out six cautions, but looking back at his record across all competitions, Brooks has given both sides a card in 18 of his last 20 matches.

Staying on the theme of cards, I’ll also be having a play on Mason Holgate to find his way into the book at 10/3 with the same bookmaker. In the 2020/2021 season the defender was Everton’s most carded player picking up nine yellows. Eight of those bookings came away from Goodison Park in just 13 appearances for the Toffees!

Last season Holgate followed that up with seven yellows in total, five of which were shown to him in away matches. The 25-year-old has now been carded in 13 of his last 27 top-flight away matches and another positive factor here could be that Holgate will have to help deal with the dangerous Ivan Toney. The Brentford talisman was the second-most fouled player in the division last season and with Everton badly needing points I think Holgate looks primed for another card this weekend.