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Brentford vs Everton Tips: Norgaard to find the book against Toffees

Norgaard features.
Norgaard features.

Super Sunday gets underway from West London as Everton head south to take on Brentford at the Community Stadium, with both sides looking to get themselves out of a rut.

The visiting Toffees are winless in each of their last six Premier League games (D2 L4), whilst the Bees are without victory in any of their last five Premier League games (D1 L4).

After Brentford’s last win at West Ham on October 3rd, both of these sides sat in the Top 7. Since then they’ve plummeted down the league, with Everton in 11th and the hosts languishing in 14th - just four points above Burnley in the relegation zone.

The difference between the two, however, is that in my opinion Brentford have probably been unlucky in their run whilst Everton have arguably deserved to lose those games.

They were absolutely dreadful against Manchester City last weekend, managing a measly four shots in a 3-0 defeat at the Etihad. They turned up with no intention to win that game, and were lucky it wasn’t reflected more in the scoreline, allowing City to create FIVE big chances and accumulate 2.61xG to their own 0.27xG

Rafa Benitez’s side haven't really done enough to win any of the games on their winless run, and it’s no real surprise when you look at their growing list of absentees.

Six of the 13 players to play more than five minutes of their opening day win over Southampton are absent from this game, and several of them haven’t played for weeks.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Abdoulaye Doucouré, Demarai Gray, and Yerry Mina have joined Andre Gomes and Tom Davies on the injury table - whilst Mason Holgate and Richarlison miss out through suspension.

Brentford vs Everton Tips

The replacements of their star players simply haven’t been good enough - Salomon Rondon, I’m looking at you - and that’s really been their downfall.

Brentford, on the other hand, have been seriously unlucky in some of their games.

The first game of their barren run was a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of league leaders Chelsea, in which Edouard Mendy made a plethora of stunning stops to preserve his clean sheet.

They restricted The Blues to just 0.25xG in that game, and have actually won the expected goals battle in three of those five winless games. 

They too have been victims of the injury table - and look likely to be without at least five players for Sunday’s game.

Joshua Dasilva and Julian Jeanvier haven’t played a minute yet this season - and Kristoffer Ajer, David Raya and Mads Sorensen will continue their long spell on the sidelines.

Thomas Frank should be able to welcome back Danish duo Mathias Jensen and Mathias Jorgensen, while Yoanne Wissa could be back involved for the first time since their last Premier League victory.

They were also boosted by the return of midfielder Shandon Baptiste from a dislocated shoulder in last weekend’s 3-3 draw at Newcastle, and he could be in contention for a start this week.

Brentford vs Everton Odds

Today's football tips
Brentford Over 12.5 Shots
1/1
Odds correct as of 2021-11-26 11:55 Odds subject to change.

Given the attacking absentees that continue to plague Everton, I expect Brentford to spend a lot of time on the front foot here.

The visitors have allowed 14 or more shots in four of their six away games, at an average of 14.5 per game, and Jordan Pickford could be in for another busy afternoon here.

The Bees have managed at least 14 shots in five of their last seven games, plus 12 at Burnley, and should be able to launch an aerial assault on The Toffees’ goal with deep crosses from their wing-backs.

Brentford vs Everton Odds
Norgaard to be carded
31/10
Odds correct as of 2021-11-26 11:55 Odds subject to change.

A player I like to be shown a card on Sunday is Brentford’s midfield general, Christian Norgaard.

He’s picked up four bookings in his last 11 starts for The Bees, and has been lucky to avoid more on several occasions.

He’s committed the 2nd most fouls in the Premier League (30) and probably should have been carded for persistent fouling against Chelsea (4), Leicester (3), and Norwich (6) in the last few weeks.

Christian Norgaard and Mathias Zanka Jorgensen to be carded
16/1
Odds correct as of 2021-11-26 12:00 Odds subject to change.

I’ll be pairing Christian Norgaard with his compatriot, Zanka. He’s one of the players Brentford should be able to welcome back to the fold on Sunday - having left the Norwich game after 10 minutes.

The Dane has played four 90 minute games in the Premier League since joining in the summer, picking up two bookings and committing eight fouls.

He earned eight yellows in 24 Superliga starts for FC Copenhagen last year, so 4/1 feels like a big price here.

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