Brentford vs Aston Villa Odds: Two tips for an interesting battle on Sunday

Brentford haven’t found the net since their 2-1 victory over Watford on December 10th, a couple of postponed matches due to Covid, followed by defeats against Chelsea in the cup, and Brighton and Man City in the league has meant the team has found itself on a baron goalscoring run. However, Brentford will be pleased with their first half of the season. They currently sit 9 points clear of the relegation zone, and will be confident of staying in the top flight next season.

Aston Villa parted ways with Dean Smith after a disappointing defeat against Southampton at the start of November, and Steven Gerrard has improved the sides fortunes in the weeks since. Gerrard has won 4 of his 7 games in charge, with the 3 defeats coming against the current top 3 in the table, so the Villains should be feeling confident despite the stern test that Brentford will provide.

Tyrone Mings is suspended for the visitors and Leon Bailey remains absent. The home side have injury worries of their own, with Mbuemo and Janelt doubtful and Raya, Goode and Henry all ruled out also.

Since Gerrard came in, Villa matches average just over 11 goal kicks across the 7 matches. Villa themselves average just over 7, while their opponents are averaging 4. Goal kicks have also been sparse in Brentford’s recent matches, with their last 10 matches in all competitions also averaging below 12 goal kicks per game. Although it was before Villa changed their manager, the last meeting between these sides also saw 11 goal kicks, which is in line with the recent averages.

The recent numbers for both teams in terms of throw ins per game are also reasonably high. Villa’s last 7 matches are averaging over 41 throws, with their opponents contributing to just over 23 of those per game on average. Brentford matches average even more throws per game, with their last 10 matches in all competitions seeing just over 43 per game.

Gerrard’s use of a 4-3-3 matched up against Brentford’s 3-5-2 should also see the ball forced into the side areas, and this could help inflate the throw in numbers even further.

As previously discussed, the previous throw numbers for both of these teams suggest we should see a few here. 5 of Villa’s last 7 league games have seen their opponents hit the required line for this to land, with Brighton falling short with 20 throws, and Man City having 16 when they came against Gerrard’s side

Villa’s recent matches have also seen a fair amount of tackles, with each game averaging just over 37. Brentford’s last 10 games average just under 30, but Villa’s approach should see that average inflated here.

Watkins looks set to lead the Villa line and the player has started showing glimpses of his best form in the last month or so. The striker found the net in his side's most recent away game against Norwich and he scored a couple of weeks earlier as Villa were narrowly beaten by Man City.