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Booking Tips: Combine these card plays to create a 210/1 longshot this Wednesday

Booking Tips: Thiago is a big price for a booking this Wednesday
Booking Tips: Thiago is a big price for a booking this Wednesday

We are amid another full round of midweek Premier League fixtures and I think that cards are on the cards Wednesday evening so have outlined my three favourite fancies. The selections are priced at 11/2, 7/2 and 13/2 or you can combine them to make a 210/1 long-shot if you are that way inclined. 

The first game on the agenda takes place at Craven Cottage as Fulham welcome Leicester. The Foxes are the bookies clear favourites to collect the three points here and at odds of 91/100 they could even represent some value as they win 63% of the games they have played when priced at these odds. However, Brendan Rodgers will be without two of his most important players with talisman Jamie Vardy and hatchet man Wilfred Ndidi absent. Therefore, overcoming a Fulham side that have only lost two of their last nine EPL games may not be a cakewalk. 

Next we head to Yorkshire to cast an eye over Leeds’ encounter with Everton. A home victory here would see Leeds complete the double over the Toffees for the first time in 20 years. When the sides last met back in November, Raphinha’s 79th minute strike was all that separated the sides at Goodison Park. However, Leeds’ winger is a doubt for this game along with Patrick Bamford and Rodrigo. As for the visitors, Carlo Ancelotti is set to shuffle his deck with Andre Gomes, Ben Godfrey and Mason Holgate all pushing for recalls. Deadline day arrival Joshua King may feature as a substitute. 

The last selection comes courtesy of Merseyside where Liverpool lock horns with Brighton at Anfield. Having drifted out to 9/1 to retain the EPL title, Liverpool’s back to back wins last week have seen the champions climb back up to third in the proceedings and subsequently shortened to 4/1. Visitors Brighton come into this one with their tails up following their victory over Spurs on Sunday, which was their first at the Amex since June. With Alexis Mac Allister an injury doubt for this one Graham Potter could turn to Liverpool’s former midfielder Adam Lallana. 

  • Tielemans Card at Odds of 11/2 with bet365
  • Klich Card at Odds of 7/2 with betvictor
  • Thiago Card at Odds of 13/2 with bet365
  • Tielemans, Klich and Thiago Cards at Odds of 210/1 with bet365
Tielemans to be carded
11/2
Odds correct as of 2021-02-02 16:00 Odds subject to change.

With Wilfred Ndidi set for another spell on the sidelines - and Nampalys Mendy not quite up to the task - the Foxes are a hatchet man shy in their engine room. The Nigerian is pivotal to Brendan Rodgers’ set up and without him Leicester are not the same team. The same can be said for Jamie Vardy who will also miss this game. 

Out of possession, Leicester’s back line sits quite deep which means the opposition squeeze up high leaving a lot of space in behind. The Foxes deploy a midblock, setting traps, and once they win the ball back they look to get Jamie Vardy in behind as soon as possible. However, with Ayoze Perez - who is a number ten by trade - playing as an out and out striker in Vardy’s absence the Foxes do not pose the same threat in behind. Perez does not stretch teams like Vardy does because he does not have the raw pace to cause opposition centre backs fear in playing a high line. 

Therefore, as we saw in Leicester’s game vs Leeds, teams can press high against them, suffocating the space in midfield without any real danger of getting undone with one ball in behind. Without their enforcer Ndidi, Leicester really struggled to dominate as they usually do in midfield and their lack of a threat in behind meant Leeds could squeeze up the pitch, congesting central areas, meaning that the half spaces that the likes of Maddison, Tielemans and Barnes thrive in was non-existent. 

What does this mean in terms of betting? In a nutshell, the Foxes are more vulnerable in transition without Ndidi, no one more so than Youri Tielemans, therefore, I like the look of him to be carded at 11/2 with bet365.

Whilst representing Leicester in the Premier League and Europa League, Tielemans has accumulated five cards, 80% of which he has picked up whilst playing without Ndidi. He looks set to add to that tally tomorrow as his side head to Craven Cottage. 

Scott Parker has completely transformed his side from the possession based team they were last campaign to the slick, counter attacking one that has seen them pick up points recently. The clinical nature of their attacks and raw pace they have in their side is a nightmare for deep lying midfielders - such as Tielemans - particularly in transition. In fact, in Fulham’s last six EPL games, a third of the fouls they have drawn have been committed by their opposition's central midfielders and over a quarter of those players (Mac Allister, Bissouma, Pogba and Hojbjerg) have received bookings! 

Therefore, all things considered I think that Tielemans price for a card tomorrow certainly represents value. 

Today's football tips
Klich to be carded
7/2
Odds correct as of 2021-02-02 16:05 Odds subject to change.

With Rodrigo set to miss out with injury, Mateusz Klich should fill the void in midfield and I like his price for a card. 

This season, Klich has received seven yellow cards for club and country. With five to his name in the EPL, no Leeds player has received more nor does any player come close to his average of 1.7 fouls conceded per game. 

In the reverse fixture, Klich conceded four fouls as he struggled to cope with Richarlison and Rodriguez, both of whom are likely to feature tomorrow.

Everton’s South American duo top the charts for fouls drawn per game - with a combined average of 4.3 - and with Micheal Oliver overseeing this one, Klich will not be able to rack up the fouls without punishment.

Thiago to be carded
13/2
Odds correct as of 2021-02-02 16:05 Odds subject to change.

Thiago could be the most cynical player to grace the Premier League in recent history. Renowned for his ability with the ball, what he does without it often goes unnoticed but he is a shyster. The Spaniard has had his name taken twice in six league starts for Liverpool and in his last five games he has conceded 17 fouls. 

With Gigi Wijnaldum occupying the defensive midfield role to great effect recently, Thiago should be deployed further up the pitch. Tomorrow, the Reds will enjoy the lion share of possession and the vast majority of which will be in the opposition's half. This will mean that Thiago will spend the majority of the match right up the pitch, making him a prime candidate for a card as he gets caught out during transition.

Tielemans, Klich and Thiago all to be carded
210/1
Odds correct as of 2021-02-02 16:10 Odds subject to change.

Finally, for a long-shot, you can combine all three selections with bet365 to make a 210/1 treble. Best of luck if you are joining me in backing these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly. 

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