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Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach Tips: Hosts expected to dominate, but Thuram could cause problems

Borussia Monchengladbach were the last side to beat Bayern in December, can they repeat it here?
Borussia Monchengladbach were the last side to beat Bayern in December, can they repeat it here?

Fresh from booking their spot in the DFB Pokal final courtesy of a 2-1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday night, Bayern Munich welcome Champions League chasers Borussia Monchengladbach to the Allianz Arena on Saturday evening at 17:30 (aired live on BT Sport).

Hansi Flik's side look to have the Bundesliga wrapped up thanks to six straight victories since football resumed last month, and head into this match as firm favourites at 4/11. Meanwhile, bookmakers have the travelling Gladbach, who sit fourth in the table as things stand, at 13/2 - giving them just a 13.3% chance of victory.

The visitors have been extremely inconsistent of late, winning two, drawing one and losing two of their previous five fixtures, with their last defeat coming against Freiburg last weekend (1-0).

They'll be looking to return to winning ways this Saturday but know they'll have their work cut out to take anything from this rampant Bayern side who look incredibly strong at the moment.

Gladbach do have a good record against Bayern this season though, beating them 2-1 in the reverse fixture back in December. That was the Bavarians' last taste of defeat, however, suggesting they are much better equipped to deal with their opponents this weekend.

The hosts are without two of their key men for this bout, with leading goalscorer Robert Lewandowski and top assistman Thomas Muller both ruled out through suspension - something which will no doubt greatly please their opponents.

Gladbach themselves are without their talismanic front man Alassane Plea, though, after the Frenchman was sent off for two yellow card offences against Freiburg last weekend, while Denis Zakaria, Fabian Johnson and Tobias Strobl all remain on the treatment table for Marco Rose's side.

Our three key football bets for this weekend's match, alongside a comprehensive preview for the game can be found below.

Saturday's Bundesliga Tip #1
17:30
Stefan Lainer to be booked
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach
WIN PROB: 33.33%
2/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Lainer is Borussia Monchengladbach's most booked player this season (8)
  • Has seen yellow twice in his last two games
  • Up against a very pacey Bayern forward line
Odds correct as of 2020-06-12 14:05 Odds subject to change.

We're kicking off our trio of bets with Gladbach defender Stefan Lainer to be booked. The Austrian full-back is his team's most booked player this season with eight yellow cards to his name - two of which have fallen in his previous two outings against Union Berlin and Freiburg.

Lainer will face a daunting task up against the speed of Bayern's left-flank, which could include Serge Gnabry if the German is fit enough for action. If not, the equally-as-tricky Ivan Perisic will line-up directly against him, which isn't a much easier prospect.

Alongside marauding defender Alfonso Davies joining the attack on the overlap and doubling up on Lainer, the 27-year-old could be in for a tough ride this weekend.

Saturday's Bundesliga Tip #2
17:30
Benjamin Pavard to be booked & Leon Goretzka 1+ SOT
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach
WIN PROB: 12.50%
7/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Pavard is Bayern's joint-third most booked player this season with 5 yellows
  • Will be up against the lively Marcus Thuram who could cause him problems
  • Goretzka was on the scoresheet against Leverkusen last weekend and is never afraid to shoot from distance
Odds correct as of 2020-06-12 14:05 Odds subject to change.

Benjamin Pavard has seen yellow five times this season - Bayern's joint-third most booked player - and while the Frenchman has escaped caution since the Bundesliga returned last month, this weekend he will be up against one of the division's most exciting players in the shape of Marcus Thuram.

Thuram has been exceptional for the visitors this season and more so since football resumed, and is fouled twice a game on average due to his extreme pace and athleticism. Pavard is a top-class defender, but even he may struggle to contain a player who is bang in form having scored four goals in his last five games. At 7/2, he represents tremendous value for a booking.

We're doubling this bet up with Bayern midfielder Leon Goretzka to have one or more shots on target. The German was outstanding last weekend when Bayern beat Bayer Leverkusen 4-2 away from home, and got himself on the scoresheet with a strike from distance. 

Goretzka should be bang up for this one and is never shy when it comes to shooting from range; hopefully he will deliver once again. This selection is priced at 2/5 with William Hill, so you're getting good value by backing it with Betfair at 8/15.

Live in-play scores
Saturday's Bundesliga Tip #3
17:30
Thuram 2+ SOT, Kimmich 1+ SOT & Neuhaus to be booked
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach
WIN PROB: 2.44%
40/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Marcus Thuram is Gladbach's key attacking threat so will be relied upon to take chances in front of goal
  • Joshua Kimmich always looks to shoot from range, and registered a SOT Wednesday against Frankfurt
  • Neuhaus has been booked 6 times this season and will be tasked with containing a lively Bayern midfield
Odds correct as of 2020-06-12 14:05 Odds subject to change.

As previously mentioned, Marcus Thuram is Gladbach's most important attacking player and will have to shoulder the visitors' goalscoring duties this weekend, especially with Alassane Plea missing through suspension. 

Indeed, no player has registered more shots on target this season for Borussia Monchengladbach than Thuram (35), with his ten goals also making him the club's joint-top scorer this term. If anyone is going to break through Bayern's defence this weekend, it's the Frenchman.

Our longshot bet also includes Joshua Kimmich to have one or more shots on target. Bayern's midfield maestro loves to shoot from distance and scored a sublime long-range goal against Borussia Dortmund a few weeks ago; he is also always good value to have a shot on target due to his deep-lying midfield position. 

He was also in our bet for Wednesday's DFB Pokal semi-final clash against Frankfurt and didn't disappoint us, registering a shot on target as Bayern qualified for the final as 2-1 winners. 

Rounding this tasty 40/1 (boosted from 25/1) longshot off, we're tipping Gladbach midfielder Florian Neuhaus to be booked. The German has seen yellow six times this season, with his latest booking coming a fortnight ago against Union Berlin.

Up against the speed of Bayern's midfield, we're expecting Neuhaus & Co. to be overran, which could lead to the 23-year-old making a mistake or two..

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