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Bayern Munich v Barcelona Tips: Lethal Lewandowski to drive Die Roten into semi-final

Lewandowski has 13 goals in 7 appearances in the Champions League this season and features in our 33/1 selection
Lewandowski has 13 goals in 7 appearances in the Champions League this season and features in our 33/1 selection

Friday night’s Champions League quarter-final between Bayern Munich and Barcelona looks an absolute cracker with the Spanish side reaching this stage of the competition for the 13th consecutive season!

Bayern are currently second favourites in the Champions League winner market, priced at 11/4 to lift the trophy for the first time since 2013. They’ve been in superb form this season winning their 30th Bundesliga title whereas there has been some unrest in the Barcelona camp after the Spaniards failed to win the league, with rumours circulating that coach Quique Setien may leave this summer. 

Samuel Umtiti looks set to miss out due to a knee injury with Ousmane Demebele also a doubt for the five-time winners of the competition. Arturo Vidal and Sergio Busquets are both available after being suspended in the last round. For Bayern, Benjamin Pavard remains sidelined with an ongoing injury which should see Joshua Kimmich continue at right back with Alphonso Davies set to come back in on the left

Bayern have been quite well supported in the markets this week and are now the Even money favourites to win inside 90 minutes, with Paddy Power going odds-on at 10/11. The draw is available at 3/1 with Barcelona priced at 5/2. I’ve had a look through the markets and have picked out three tips I like the look of for this game. 

Bayern Munich to win - 2pts @ Evens Betfair

Lionel Messi to score from outside the area - 0.5pts @ 15/2 Betfair

Lewandowski 2+ shots on target, Busquets & Thiago carded - 0.5pts @ 33/1 Paddy Power

Barcelona v Bayern Munich Tip #1
Bayern Munich to win
Bayern have won 18 consecutive games in all competitions Die Roten have won their last eight Champions League games Lewandowski has 13 goals in 7 games in the competition 
Odds correct as of 2020-08-13 16:50 Odds subject to change.

My first selection here is a straight up Bayern win in 90 minutes priced at evens (1/1) with several bookmakers. The German side were as big as 2.18 on the Betfair Exchange at the start of the week and have seen a flurry of support to now be a shade of odds-on with certain firms. I’ve every confidence that the market is getting this one right and I feel Bayern should have too much for Barcelona here.

Die Roten are in a remarkable run of 18 straight victories in all competitions and have been in the most ruthless of form. Hansi Flick has got a well oiled machine on his hands at the moment. His side added to the 3-0 first leg win over Chelsea with a 4-1 romping at the weekend to secure their place in the quarter-final. They’ve won every game they have played in the competition this season and are bidding to be the first side since 2015 to win nine straight Champions League games. 

In Robert Lewandowski they have the most potent striker in Europe at the moment. He has 13 goals in just seven appearances in this year’s Champions League, a quite remarkable feat. It’s no surprise to see him at 1/100 in the Champions League top scorer market. I’ve managed to snaffle a bit of 11/10 for a Bayern win using an odds boost with Betfair on this selection and will be hoping they have enough to come through this tie and keep Lionel Messi quiet. 

Barcelona v Bayern Munich Tip #2
Lionel Messi to score from outside the area
36% of Messi's La Liga goals this season have come from outside the area Messi averages more shots per game from outside the area (2.5) than he does inside the area (1.9)
Odds correct as of 2020-08-13 16:50 Odds subject to change.

Next up I’m backing Lionel Messi to score from outside the area, available at 15/2 with Betfair and BetVictor. 35% of Lionel Messi’s goals in La Liga this season have come from outside the box. That’s nine goals in total, a phenomenal total when you consider that the highest in the Premier League was just five, scored by Kevin De Bruyne. 

I’m a strong believer that Barcelona’s only way of progressing here is if the special little Argentinian turns up and produces something out of this world. He’s capable of anything and I see him taking a similar role to Neymar on Wednesday by shooting at every opportunity and really taking it to the opposition defence. Messi will be on free-kicks and is always looking to get a shot away. 

Diving further into the labyrinth that is Lionel Messi stats, he’s averaged 2.5 shots per game this season from outside the area, and just 1.9 shots per game from inside the area this season. SkyBet actually have this same selection at 8/1 but stakes may be limited.15/2 is widely available from both Betfair and BetVictor and I’ll be having a small play on this for Friday.

Barcelona v Bayern Munich Tip #3
Lewandowski 2+ shots on target, Busquets & Thiago to be carded
Lewnadowski averages 3.6 shots on target per game this season and has 13 goals in 7 games Busquets has been carded 13 times in all formats this season Thiago has been booked 7 times in 20 starts in the Bundesliga this season
Odds correct as of 2020-08-13 16:45 Odds subject to change.

Finally I’ve picked out a Same Game Multi with Paddy Power priced at 33/1 made up of Robert Lewandowski to have 2 or more shots on target with both Sergio Busquets and Thiago to be carded.

Where do you start with Robert Lewandowski this season, he’s notched a mind-boggling 54 goals in 45 appearances in all competitions, just let that sink in. He averages the most shots on target per game of anyone in this season’s Champions League with 3.6 per game. The next highest is 2.2 per game from Inter’s Lautaro Martinez which just shows how far ahead of fellow strikers the Pole has been this campaign. He’s also the penalty taker for Bayern and with scoring 12 goals in his last 9 I fully expect him to land 2 shots on target against Barcelona.

Sergio Busquets should come back into the starting line up after being suspended against Napoli and I fancy him to pick up a card. He’s been booked 13 times this season with only Gerard Pique having more for the Catalans. Bayern’s speed and efficiency in moving the ball around should lead to Busquets breaking up play and I’m adding him into this Same Game Multi.

The third element of this 33/1 shot is Bayern’s Thiago to be carded. The Spaniard has picked up seven yellow cards in just 20 starts in the Bundesliga this season and has also been shown two in the Champions League. He looks good value in comparison to some others here for a booking when you consider that he’s a bigger price than teammates Joshua Kimmich and Javi Martinez. 

Best of luck to those following any of the selections and as always please gamble responsibly.

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