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Atalanta v PSG Tips: Back the boys from Bergamo in what should be a barnstormer

Neymar took seven shots in his most recent game against Lyon with three hitting the target and the Brazilian features in our 2 point tip for this one
Neymar took seven shots in his most recent game against Lyon with three hitting the target and the Brazilian features in our 2 point tip for this one

The first of the Champions League quarter-finals sees Atalanta take on PSG at the Estadio de Luz in Lisbon this Wednesday in what looks to have the potential to be a real thriller. 

PSG have already won three trophies this season: the Ligue 1 title, the Coupe de France and the Coupe de la Ligue. Here in Portugal though they face an Atalanta side here who have come into this one with nothing to fear. The boys from Bergamo finished third in Serie A this season and scored an impressive 98 goals in the process, 17 more than any other side.

There’s some concern on the injury front however for the Parisiens with Kylian Mbappe a major doubt after picking up a knock against Lyon in last month’s Coupe de la Ligue final. He faces a race against time but most likely will start from the bench. Angel Di Maria is suspended for the game and striker Edison Cavani has now left the club after his contract expired. Atalanta will be without first choice keeper Pierluigi Gollini which could see Marco Sportiello come into the starting line up.

Having a look at the match prices and Paddy Power have gone 10/11 for a win for PSG inside 90 minutes which does look a little short in my opinion. The Italians can be backed at 5/2 with the draw being offered at 3/1. The game kicks off at 20:00 and can be seen live on BT Sport. I’ve had a delve into the markets for this one and have picked out three football tips I like the look of for this game. 

Neymar to have 2+ shot on target - 2pts @ 6/5 Betfair

Atalanta to win and both teams to score - 1pts @ 9/2 Paddy Power

Icardi & Zapata 1+ shot on target, De Roon & Bernat to be carded

Atalanta v PSG Tip #1
20:00
Neymar 2+ shots on target
Averages an impressive 2.5 shots on target per game this season Penalty and Free-kick taker   
Odds correct as of 2020-08-11 16:40 Odds subject to change.

The first of my three selections comes in the form of Neymar to have two or more shots on target in the game. As I mentioned earlier, the fitness and question marks surrounding Kylian Mbappe is a huge one. I don’t think he will start and with no Di Maria or Cavani, I now think it’s time for Neymar to grab the baton and perform on the big stage. 

Having a look at his numbers this season and the Brazilian is averaging a league high 4.7 shots per game with 2.5 of those hitting the target. He’s also scored 12 goals in his last 16 knockout matches in the Champions League and without other star performers present, I’m expecting him to step up.

Another bonus is that he also should be on both penalties and free-kicks here for PSG which could bring some joy. Having a look at the prices elsewhere and SkyBet have this one odds-on at 5/6, giving appeal to the 6/5 on offer from Betfair.

Atalanta v PSG Tip #2
20:00
Atalanta to win and both teams to score
Atalanta scored 98 league goals this season, 17 more than any other side They play a high press and we should be in for plenty of goals PSG could be without key players Atalanta used to playing at a neutral venue in the Champions League
Odds correct as of 2020-08-11 17:40 Odds subject to change.

Next up I’m backing Atalanta to win and both teams to score at 9/2 with Paddy Power. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have been one of the highlights of the European football season with a combination of hard work and high pressing football making them an exciting side to watch; their stats speak for themselves with a monumental 98 goals in Serie A.

One key angle for me here is how Atalanta have not actually been playing Champions League games at their home ground this season due to their stadium not being deemed up to Uefa Standards. As a result they have been playing at Milan’s San Siro which should help when you consider that tomorrow’s game will also be played at a neutral venue for them, this time in Lisbon due to Covid19. 

Another plus here for Atalanta is that PSG have actually lost eight of their last 16 knockout games in the Champions League, conceding 30 goals in doing so. They’ve failed to win or keep a clean sheet in their last six in the tournament against Italian sides and I believe the underdogs can claim a moral victory for football here. 

Atalanta scored four goals in each of their games against Valencia in the last round and they are a team who are growing in confidence. I don’t think it will be one way traffic and the high press may leave plenty of holes in their defence, but with all things considered I’m taking a bit of the 9/2 available for a Atalanta win and both teams to score.

Atalanta v PSG Tip #3
20:00
Icardi & Zapata 1+ shot on target, De Roon & Bernat to be carded
Icardi averages 1.3 shots on target per game this season and should come in for Mbappe Zapata has 18 league goals in 25 games this season De Roon has been booked more times than any other Atalanta player this season (14) Bernat has been booked five times in 16 games this season and looks better value than others who are as short as 10/11
Odds correct as of 2020-08-11 17:05 Odds subject to change.

Finally I’ve picked out something at a little bit of a price and I’m sticking with the formula that has produced 40/1 and 66/1 winners in the last couple of months: two players to have a shot on target and two players to be carded - which can be seen here in our recent winners.

At 25/1 with PaddyPower and Betfair I’m backing Mauro Icardi and Duvan Zapata to have one or more shots on target with both Marten De Roon and Juan Bernat to be carded.

Besides being 1/20 to have a shot on target, I just don’t think Kylian Mbappe will start this one and at 4/9 Mauro Icardi looks the much better option to throw into this Same Game Multi. The Argentine averages over a shot on target per game every time he has started this season (1.3) and I’m hoping he should get a few chances in this one. 

For Atalanta I’ve decided to add in Duvan Zapata to land one between the sticks. The Colombian has 18 league goals in 25 games this season and has been superb for the side from the Lombardy region over the course of the campaign. He averages 1.3 shots on target per game and I think he should be the main threat for Gasperini’s side on Wednesday evening.

Moving onto the cards and first up it’s Juan Bernat for Paris Saint-Germain. The left-sided defender/midfielder has actually been booked five times in just 16 starts this season and considering there are players as short as 10/11 to be carded here, he makes appeal at the 13/5 on show. 

Rounding off the quartet of elements that make up this 25/1 shot is Marten De Roon to pick up a card and find his way into Anthony Taylor’s notebook. The former Middlesborough midfielder has picked up a staggering 14 yellow cards across Serie A and the Champions League this season and he’s the one I want on side to be booked here for Atalanta.

Putting those four together gives us the price of 25/1 with Paddy Power, however it is worth noting that most customers should have a free ‘power up odds boost’ which would take this one up to 28/1. 

Enjoy the first of the UCL quarter-finals and please remember to gamble responsibly. 

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