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Aston Villa v Manchester United Tips: United to put Villans to the sword

Bruno Fernandes to have 1+ shot on target has landed in every game since the restart
Bruno Fernandes to have 1+ shot on target has landed in every game since the restart

Aston Villa host Manchester United on Thursday night in what is a huge game for both sides. The visitors currently sit in fifth place, four points behind Leicester and five behind Chelsea in third, and with this being their game in hand on both sides United will be looking to close that gap back to a solitary point. After Watford’s win at home to Norwich on Tuesday courtesy of a Danny Welbeck bicycle kick, Villa are now four points from safety with just five games remaining with relegation now looking more and more likely. In fact looking at the Premier League relegation betting  we can see that Dean Smith’s side are currently just 1/6 to drop into the Championship with Betfred, an implied probability of 86%.

Having a look into team news for this one and Dean Smith has confirmed that both Jack Grealish and Tyrone Mings should be fit for the game after picking up slight knocks against Liverpool. For United, they could be without Victor Lindleof which could see a return to the starting line up for Eric Bailly. Phil Jones and Axel Tuanzebe remain sidelined for Solskjaer’s side and with the FA Cup tie against Chelsea coming up next week he may look to bring some players off early if they are dominating the match. 

The game kicks off at 20:15pm and can be viewed on SkySports Premier League. Having a look into the match odds the bookmakers have made the visitors the general 1/3 favourites with PaddyPower offering the draw at 4/1 and BetVictor currently being the stand out top price of 10/1 for a home win for Villa. 

Aston Villa v Manchester United Tip #1
20:15
Man United to win by 2 or more goals
WIN PROB: 50%
1/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
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Why this Tip?

Villa have conceded 2 or more goals 20 times in the league this season

United have won their last three by a margin of two goals or more

Odds correct as of 2020-07-08 18:05 Odds subject to change.

My first of my betting tips for this one is for Manchester United to win by two or more goals, priced at Evens with Betfair. Since the restart The Reds have taken 10 points from a possible twelve in the league and have won their last three all by a margin of two goals or more. There’s no doubt in my eyes that this is the best football United have played since Sir Alex Fergurson and I want them onside again for this Thursday’s game at Villa Park.

Aston Villa’s defeat at Liverpool last weekend was the 20th time in the Premier League this season that they have conceded two or more goals. They’ve been leaky at the back all season and I see United exploiting this tomorrow evening. Yes Villa were much improved against Liverpool and proved stubborn to pass at times but United look a threat every time they seem to go forward at the moment. Mason Greenwood, Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial all look as hungry as ever and with William Hill only having this one priced at 5/6, I’m happy to back United to win by 2 or more at Evens with Betfair. 

Aston Villa v Manchester United Tip #2
20:15
Man United to win both halves & Man United to take the most corners in each half
WIN PROB: 10.53%
8.5/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

United have been ruthless in front of goal lately and and should dominate possession

Villa are poor going forward and shouldn't pick up many corners when stuck in their own half

Odds correct as of 2020-07-08 18:10 Odds subject to change.

Coming in at 17/2 my second bet for the night is Manchester United to win both halves and Manchester United to have the most corners in each half.

As mentioned already I feel that United have a real ruthlessness about them when going forward at the moment. The quality that they possess is easy to see and these players seem to be showing their talent in front of goal. When we look at the expected goals (xG) figures from the last two games we can see against Bournemouth they scored 5 but had an xG of 2.51 and against Brighton they scored 3 with an xG of just 1.11. 

So what does this show? It says to me that the United players are clearly taking their chances and are a team full of confidence on both a personal and team level. I’m going with my gut on this one and even with Villa needing the points desperately, I think United will come flying out of the blocks like they have of late and will score early on. I don’t see The Red Devils being threatened too much by Aston Villa’s non existent strike force and as a result see their corner count being on the low side. There’s competition for places at the moment at United and with a strong subs bench and a few with points to prove I’d hope we could see a few second half goals even if United are winning at half time. All in all I feel 17/2 is a fair price for this with Betfair and one I’ll be having a little nibble on. 

Aston Villa v Manchester United Tip #3
20:15
Fernandes & McGinn 1+ shot on target, Mings & Wan-Bissaka to be carded
WIN PROB: 0.79%
125/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Bruno Fernandes 1+ shot on target has landed in every game since the restart

No Villa player averages more shots per game than John McGinn this season

Mings will be in for a long night and has been booked six times this season

Wan-Bissaka has been cautioned five times this season and should be on the pitch for the full 90 mins

Odds correct as of 2020-07-08 18:05 Odds subject to change.

Finally I’ve picked something out at an absolute monumental price for the longshot for this one. Full of confidence after Monday’s 40/1 winner I’m having Bruno Fernandes and John McGinn to have a shot on target with both Tyrone Mings and Aaron Wan-Bissaka to be carded at 125/1.

One man who needs no introduction is Bruno Fernandes and I’m kicking this one off with him to have 1 or more shots on target. He’s been an absolute whirlwind of a signing so far for United and looks to have been the elusive piece in the jigsaw they have been searching for. He’s currently averaging 3.7 shots per game and for him to have one or more shots on target has landed in every game since the Premier League restart.

Next up I've picked out Aston Villa’s John McGinn to also have one or more shots on target. At first glance you might be thinking, hang on why has he gone for McGinn here? Well, Scottish John actually averages more shots per game for Aston Villa than any other player in the squad. He missed a large chunk of the season through injury but has still played 22 league games and I think it’s a credit to him when you look at his figures in comparison to some of the other attackers at the club.

Onto the bookings and one person I really like the look of to pick up a caution is Tyrone Mings. I’ve been critical at times of Mings this season and have questioned the hype that seems to be around him. Personally I still feel he has a lot to learn and appears clumsy and rash at times in his tackling. Priced at 7/2 as a single he makes much more appeal than the 6/4 on offer for Jack Grealish or John McGinn to be carded and with six to his name already in the league It would be no surprise to see him pick up another her in what could potentially be a very long night.

Finally I’ve gone for right back Aaron Wan-Bissaka to be carded. Cautioned five times in the Premier League this season Bissaka makes some appeal in the card markets. Jack Grealish should be playing on the left for Villa which would put him up against AWB. Grealish is one of the most fouled players in the league and at 9/2 Bissaka looks a good price to be carded.

Another of the angles with both Wan-Bissaka and Mings is that they will both most likely play the full 90 minutes. With the new substitution rules, it has been a nightmare at times with unexpected players being pulled off, however I think we should get more bang for our buck with these two players being on the field for the duration. Putting these four elements together

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