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Arsenal v Liverpool Tips: Aubameyang and Salah to continue search for second successive Golden Boot

David Luiz has picked up seven cards this season and features in our 55/1 shot
David Luiz has picked up seven cards this season and features in our 55/1 shot

The Premier League Golden Boot race is set to go down to the wire once again this year and the three players who all shared the award last season face off tomorrow night at The Emirates as Arsenal host The Champions, Liverpool. 

Last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Burnley was the first time that The Reds have dropped points in a league game at Anfield since back in January 2019. It also means that in order to break Manchester City’s record points total of 100 points they will have to win their three remaining fixtures against Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle. If they were to take seven points from a possible nine they would tie the record, however having a look at the match odds for this one and William Hill have Liverpool the odds-on favourites at 10/11 with the draw offered at 3/1. A first win in ten meetings over Liverpool for the Gunners can be backed at 11/4 with BetVictor, an implied probability of 27%. 

The game is live on SkySports Premier League and kicks off at 20:15pm. Having a look at team news, the hosts will be without Eddie Nketiah who is suspended after his red card against Leicester. Martinelli, Leno, Mari and Chambers are all sidelined through injury with Mesut Ozil still a major doubt. Liverpool will be without captain Jordan Henderson for the rest for remainder of the season and Joel Matip is out with a toe issue.

Arsenal come into this one after a disappointing defeat to Spurs at the weekend, however they are unbeaten in the Premier League at home this calendar year and will need points if they are to push towards a Europa League place. As usual I’ve given my three takes on the game to hopefully add to the success of last week’s winners

Liverpool v Arsenal Tip #1
20:15
Mo Salah to have 2+ shots on target
WIN PROB: 45.45%
1.2/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Salah has taken 14 shots in his last two games with nine being on target

He's hungry to win his third Golden Boot and is four behind Jamie Vardy

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-14 19:05 Odds subject to change.

First up I’m going for Mo Salah to have two or more shots on target at 6/5 with both Betfair and PaddyPower. Salah is four goals behind Jamie Vardy in the race for this season's Premier League Golden Boot and looking at the top goalscorer betting market, he is 12/1 to do so which would be a very big ask with only three games remaining. 

It has been very apparent in Salah’s last couple of games quite how much he would love to win a third Golden Boot with a total number of 14 shots over fixtures against Brighton and Burnley. Of those 14, nine have hit the target, numbers that show a nice amount of selfishness that I think is required at times to win awards like this. A feel we’ve got a nice little way in here with Salah and when you consider that bet365 are 8/11 for him to have two or more shots on target, the 6/5 boosted price from Betfair and PaddyPower makes plenty of appeal.

 

Liverpool v Arsenal Tip #2
20:15
Salah to score and Xhaka to be carded
WIN PROB: 11.76%
7.5/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Salah has six goals in six games against Arsenal

Arsenal have the worst disciplinary record in the league

Xhaka has the most yellow cards of any Arsenal player this season

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-14 19:15 Odds subject to change.

Arsenal v Liverpool has thrown up some absolute thrillers over the last few seasons. The last nine meetings in all competitions between the two have produced a staggering 49 goals, that’s an average of 5.4 per game. Yes there was a 5-5 draw in the league cup earlier this season which is pushing that 5.4 average up over the last nine meetings but I do think we will see an open game with plenty of action here tomorrow. 

I’m backing Mo Salah to score and Granit Xhaka to be carded at 15/2 from Betfair as my second selection. I’ve touched already on Salah and how hungry I think he is, he averages 3.9 shots per game which is the highest of any player in the league and with him also being on penalties I fancy him to score here.

Almost tying in with the penalty angle is Granit Xhaka to be carded. Arsenal have the worst disciplinary record in the league with 76 yellow and five red cards this campaign. Xhaka unsurprisingly, amounts the most of any Gunner with eight yellows and he somehow managed to evade one in Sunday’s North London Derby where there were eight cards brandished in total. Having a shop around, Coral have this little double at 11/2 and I think 15/2 is a reasonable price for a game that should be very eventful. 

Liverpool v Arsenal Tip #3
20:15
Aubameyang & Firmino 1+ shot on target, David Luiz & Joe Gomez to be carded
WIN PROB: 1.79%
55/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Aubameyang is three behind Vardy in the race for the Golden Boot and averages 1.2 shots on target per game

Firmino is a bigger price than Mane to have a shot on target, he's had more shots on target this season than Mane who has scored twice as many goals 

David Luiz has picked up seven cards this season 

Joe Gomez has 6 bookings in 19 league games this season, the joint highest at the club

 

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-14 19:05 Odds subject to change.

Last week’s longshots produced a 40/1 winner and a 125/1 near miss where three of the four elements landed. I’ve picked out a juicy looking Same Game Multi for Arsenal v Liverpool that weighs in at 55/1 with those good folk over at PaddyPower for Aubameyang and Firmino to have one or more shots on target with both David Luiz and Joe Gomez to be carded.

Aubameyang is just three behind Jamie Vardy and is 7/1 in the top goalscorer betting to claim a second Golden Boot. He’s the penalty taker for the gooners and has averaged 1.2 shots on target per game this season and I’m adding him in here.

Roberto Firmino actually has actually taken more shots on target this season than Sadio Mane despite Mane scoring double the amount of goals Firmino has in the league. This is just the kind of stat that makes Firmino appeal in this market as Mane is priced shorter than the Brazilian. Another strange one is how Firmino averages 0.9 shots on target per game at Anfield this season but that figure rises to 1.2 shots on target per game when you focus on only away games. 

Moving onto the cards and my first selection is usual suspect David Luiz. He’s had five yellow and two red cards in the league this season already and is prone to making some terrible decisions a bit like myself. How many times this season does it seem we have seen the Sky Sports cameras zoom in on Luiz, as him and his team walk back to their positions for kick off after conceding a goal through some form of error. Luiz will have the pace of Liverpool’s attack to deal with here and I’m backing him to pick up his eighth card of the season.

Joel Matip is out injured and Joe Gomez should be starting at centre half with Virgil Van Dijk.He looks good value for a booking here considering he has been booked the joint highest number of times of any Liverpool player this season. It’s Gomez and Fabinho who both have six domestic  yellow cards this season although Gomez has only played 19 league games this time round. He’s been known to ‘think he’s the big man’ (Raheem Sterling) and I’ll be thinking I’m the big man if this gargantuan multi rolls in tomorrow. As ever we must remember with these longshots that they will not land every night, this one represents just a 1.8% chance of landing if you look at the 55/1 odds as percentage probability. I’m hoping we are in for a cracker here tomorrow if previous encounters are anything to go by, but please, always remember to gamble responsibly.
 

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