AC Milan vs. Napoli Betting Tips: Giroud to be carded in 19/2 double
We have a mouth watering Champions League quarter-final tie on Wednesday evening as Italian giants AC Milan and Napoli face off in the first leg at the San Siro. We’ve called upon Anthony Eadson to provide us with his best bets for the game.
This is the first time since 2012 that AC Milan have made it to the last-eight of Europe’s most elite club competition. It will also be the first time the pair have ever met in the Champions League and Milan manager Stefano Pioli will be seeking a similar result to when his side put in an excellent showing against Napoli when they came out 4-0 winners in Serie A ten days ago.
After a 2-1 victory of Leece at the weekend, Napoli preserved their 16 point lead at the top of the Serie A table. Luciano Spalletti’s men have won seven of their eight Champions League matches this season, with that solitary defeat coming at the hands of Liverpool back at the start of November.
Taking a look at the match result odds for the first leg and bookmakers are struggling to split the pair with 7/4 on offer for a home win and 17/10 on show for the visitors. Napoli are unbeaten in their last four trips to the San Siro and for those who fancy the draw on Wednesday, 21/10 is available with most betting sites.
AC Milan vs Napoli Tips
First up I’ve sided with a little foul-based double for two players to give away one or more in the match. This can be backed with either Paddy Power or Betfair at 23/20, with Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Piotr Zielinski the two players I’m targeting.
I think AC Milan may have shown their hand a little too early when beating Napoli 4-0 in Naples. Milan have been very inconsistent this season and I expect Napoli to come back strong here and show them why they are currently one of the best sides in Europe.
This should hopefully lead to a combative affair and first up I’ve picked out Di Lorenzo, who has given away a foul in seven of his last nine for Napoli. Di Lorenzo may also have to deal with Theo Hernandez’s runs from wing-back for the hosts. Hernandez is the most fouled player for Milan this season, drawing 2 on average per game, and with giving away two fouls in each of the last-16 legs against Frankfurt he looks a good prospect to commit at least one there.
Piotr Zielinski has given away 1+ fouls in seven of his last ten appearances for Napoli and can be backed at 8/13 as as single here. That price looks a shade too big for my liking considering the importance of this game. I expect some big tackles to be flying in here and combining Zielinski and Di Lorenzo to give away 1+ foul pays 23/20.
I’ve also had a couple of quid on a longshot for the game in the form of Oliver Giroud to be carded and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score or assist. No player has collected more cards for Milan this season than Giroud with nine yellows and a red in all competitions. He was booked in the most recent meeting between the pair at the start of the month and looks a solid prospect for another here.
As mentioned above, I expect a much improved performance from the visitors after that 4-0 thumping from AC. There is a strong chance that Victor Osimhen will miss out through injury, which will put even more impetus on Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to provide in the final third.
In Serie A this season, The Georgian has managed 12 goals and 10 assists and when looking at his Champions League stats he has four goals and a further two assists. Backing Kvaratskhelia to score or assist on Wednesday looks the wise play and combining him with Giroud to be carded pays 19/2 thanks to the Betfair or Paddy’s Power Bet Builder feature.