World Cup 2022 Odds: Which group will the winner come from?

The World Cup outright market has been cemented and it’s now clear who the favourites are heading into the tournament. Bookmakers have now released odds for which group the eventual winner will come from, and we’ve decided to take a look at the market and try and find the most likely winner.

World Cup Groups

Group A: 10/1

• Qatar
• Ecuador
• Senegal
• Netherlands

Group B: 6/1

• England
• Iran
• USA
• Wales

Group C: 6/1

• Argentina
• Saudi Arabia
• Mexico
• Poland

Group D: 4/1

• France
• Australia
• Denmark
• Tunisia

Group E: 4/1

• Spain
• Costa Rica
• Germany
• Japan

Group F: 9/1

• Belgium
• Canada
• Morocco
• Croatia

Group G: 4/1

• Brazil
• Serbia
• Switzerland
• Cameroon

Group H: 10/1

• Portugal
• Ghana
• Uruguay
• South Korea

Immediately after seeing the odds you’d probably be looking for which group Brazil are in, but the value could well and truly lie elsewhere as some groups are a lot more stacked than others. 

Brazil’s group really doesn’t offer much. Switzerland and Serbia may be decent sides but have nowhere near the quality to win the tournament. So you’d have to think the better play is to find a group that has multiple teams with a decent chance. When you consider that, you immediately look at Groups D and E.

Group D

Group D has two solid teams in there with France and Denmark both being quite short in the betting.

France are the third favourites outright with most bookies, while Denmark are many people’s “dark horse” of the tournament and have found themselves priced at around 28/1 in the betting.

Considering France are at around 6/1 in the outright betting, backing the winner to come from Group D at 4/1 is not a bad bet at all. France backers can add a bit of insurance this way and have Denmark almost as a double-chance bet.

You will still be focussed on France as your best chance but Denmark are coming into this tournament after a semi-final finish in Euro 2020 where they failed to capitalise on an early lead against England.

Following their recent success in the past couple of years, they’ve actually been backed in from about 60/1 to 28/1 which shows there is some support in the market for the Danes. Ultimately though you will be hoping for a decent campaign from France.

Group E

For many, Group E represents some serious value with two major teams high up in the outright betting featuring in this group: Germany and Spain. The Germans are priced at 10/1 and the Spanish a touch shorter at 8/1.

You’re getting 4/1 for either of these to win the World Cup which could be a very solid bet. Germany are projected to face their toughest test in the quarter-finals where they are expected to meet Belgium.

Germany are likely to be the favoured team going into this matchup with them being the shorter team in the outright betting, they’re then expected to face Portugal which is a similar story. After that it could be either France or England which is about as 50/50 as it gets.

For Spain they’ll be on the opposite side where they are expected to face Croatia and then Brazil. It’s hard to fancy them against Brazil but if they succeed there, there’s no reason they can’t win the whole thing.

4/1 remains a fairly attractive price for easily the strongest group in the tournament.

• Paddy Power will pay your team out if they go two goals up during the World Cup
• Get an industry best price of 10/1 for England to win the World Cup

Other Groups

Unfortunately aside from these two groups, you’re ultimately getting a similar price for the favourite in each group to win the World Cup when it comes to group betting.

For example, Brazil are 4/1 shots to win the World Cup, and Group G is 4/1 to win the World Cup: identical prices but at least you’re getting a little extra chance with three other teams in there.

It’s a similar story to England’d group which is the exact same price: 6/1 for Group B to win and England are 6/1.

Your best bet is probably either Group E or Group D, but after that, you’re pretty much just betting on the outright market with a tiny bit of insurance.