Wolves vs. Man City Betting Tips: Two stats based tips as the Champions travel to Molineux

Wolves secured their first win of the season against Southampton in their last game, and they will have their work cut out as they face Manchester City this weekend.

City came back from one goal down to beat Dortmund midweek, so Wolves will be hopeful that fatigue will play a part when these sides meet early on Saturday. Pep’s side have dropped a few points already this season. However, they have looked frightening in an attacking sense. They look more than capable of putting any team to the sword this season. The attacking threat of Erling Haaland is ever present, and it will take a solid defence to deny the Norwegian.

Wolves were beaten 5-1 at home last season, but they do boast 2 wins in their last 6 matches against Pep Guardiola’s side, which is more than most sides can say. They will need to significantly improve on that this season because they are at risk of being dragged into the bottom 5 with a loss here.

It won’t surprise you to hear that City’s opponents get more than their fair share of goal kicks. Pep’s men put their opponents under significant pressure, and this often means that they over hit the occasional cross or have shots off target, that lead to goal kicks for whoever they play.

Wolves had 11 goal kicks in their last match against Southampton, so you’d expect them to have a good amount here. City’s last 5 opponents have had 11, 12, 10, 9 and 11 goal kicks. Wolves had 9 and 11 goal kicks when these sides met last, so I’m happy to back them to have a few again here.

I’m also going to back a throws angle in this one. City matches average the fewest throws in the league, and we can get some value by combining it with Wolves goal kicks here. There was just 20 throws in this fixture last season.

Man City games so far this season have averaged just 31 throws per game, and Wolves games have averaged just 36. The last 4 meetings between these sides have finished with 33, 15, 33 and 20 throws, well under the required mark for this bet to land.

Using the bet builder on Bet 365, we can get odds of 1.95 for under 37.5 throws in the match and over 8.5 goal kicks for the home side.

For the longer odds bet, I’m going to use the same angles as the main bet. The number of goal kicks that City have forced from their opponents in recent matches makes a higher line than 8.5 more than doable here.

Under 27.5 throws is also very possible. It has landed in 2 of the last 4 meetings between the sides, it also landed comfortably in this fixture last season.

I’m also going to add Haaland to score to create an even bigger price. The forward has been unstoppable so far this season. He got the decisive goal against Dortmund in the week, and he is on course for a record breaking Premier League season.