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Why Leipzig could offer plenty of value in the Bundesliga

Leipzig were enjoying a fine season before football was suspended in Germany due to the Coronavirus pandemic.
Leipzig were enjoying a fine season before football was suspended in Germany due to the Coronavirus pandemic.

The Bundesliga is back this weekend, and although the Belarusian Premier League has been a trusty ally in this extended drought without top-class football, it feels good to finally get one of the ‘big five’ leagues back. 

While the casual on-looker would be forgiven for thinking that the title race was a foregone conclusion, bearing in mind that Bayern Munich sit top and have been champions for each of the last seven years, the league has had a much more open feel to it this season. 

Indeed, Bayern endured a rather sluggish start to their campaign, suffering a 5-1 hammering away at Eintracht Frankfurt at the beginning of November.

And while Die Roten have admittedly since recovered, winning 10 of their last 11 in the Bundesliga, they are still closely pursued by two sides; old rivals Borussia Dortmund, who are four points behind in second, and RB Leipzig, who sit five points behind the leaders in third. 

Founded in 2009 and promoted to the Bundesliga just seven years later in 2016, RB Leipzig are very much the new kids on the block in Germany, and are largely disliked by the wider footballing community - given that they are backed and controlled by Red Bull, and flout (albeit legally) the "50-plus-one" fan-ownership rules and principles that the country abide by.

However, it is impossible to ignore the fact that Leipzig are an emerging force in German football, and they could prove to offer plenty of value from a betting perspective for the remainder of the Bundesliga season…

Bundesliga Match Odds

An unbeaten run-in?

Leipzig have a pretty favourable final nine-match run-in, and apart from their penultimate fixture at home to second-placed Dortmund, they won’t face another team in the top seven at the time of writing.

Indeed, five of those matches will be at home, and the average league position of their opponents is 11.66 -  with games against the struggling trio of Mainz (15th), Dusseldorf (16th) and Paderborn (18th) still to come. 

Leipzig are currently 7/2 with Paddy Power to go unbeaten through those nine matches, and that begins to look an appealing price when you factor in the fact that they have conceded the joint-lowest amount of goals in the Bundesliga this season alongside Bayern Munich (26), and have also lost the least amount of games (3). 

Their penultimate fixture at home to Borussia Dortmund will undoubtedly pose the biggest threat, though it’s worth bearing in mind that they will likely still be very much in the title picture by then, and the 7/2 on offer (22.2% chance) makes plenty of appeal. 

Leipzig’s favourable run-in
Leipzig’s favourable run-in

Werner isn't finished just yet 

Bearing in mind Leipzig's favourable run-in, it would be folly to suggest that Timo Werner isn't without a shout of becoming the Bundesliga's top scorer this season. 

Werner trails Robert Lewandowski by four goals heading into the restart, and as a result the Bayern striker is as short as 7/1-on (87.72% chance) with bookmakers to win the accolade for the fifth time in seven seasons.

However, as mentioned above, Leipzig have a favourable run of fixtures, and 12 of Werner's 21 Bundesliga goals have come against sides in the bottom half of the table at the time of writing.

Factor in the fact that Bayern have a tougher-looking run-in, with fixtures against each of Dortmund, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Wolfsburg, and the 4/1 about Werner making up the deficit (20% chance) may look big in a few weeks' time. 

A new name on the trophy?

Priced up as 10/1 shots to win the Bundesliga (9.1% chance), RB Leipzig are very much the outsiders of three behind Borussia Dortmund (11/2) and the heavily odds-on 'champions elect' Bayern Munich (1/5) - though the title race could yet prove to be much closer than it currently appears.

Indeed, as mentioned above, Leipzig's run-in is a favourable one, and the average league position of their opponents is 11.66 - suggesting that they will largely be facing sides either in mid-table or those who are battling against relegation. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund will face opponents with an average position of 9.77, and statistically at least, Bayern Munich's run-in is the toughest - as the average position of their opponents is 9.11. 

Both Bayern and Dortmund face tricky-looking ties in their first game back this weekend against Union Berlin and Schalke respectively, and Bayern also have to travel to Signal Iduna Park to face Dortumund on Tuesday 26th May. A draw in that particular fixture could see Leipzig cut Bayern's lead at the top down to three points, and the outsiders could be much shorter than their current price by the end of the month. 

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