West Ham vs Aston Villa Prediction and Betting Tips: Paqueta a huge price in the 'fouls won' market
Aston Villa travel to the capital to take on West Ham in the first 5:30pm kick-off of the season on Saturday. Anthony Eadson has scoured the betting markets and has picked out two punts, with selections featuring from the ‘fouls won’ market.
West Ham vs Aston Villa Predictions
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After four years under the guidance of David Moyes, West Ham begin a new era as Julen Lopetegui takes control of his first competitive match for the Hammers. The hosts are priced as the 11/8 favourites to collect the three points, with the draw available at 13/5.
Aston Villa enjoyed a memorable campaign in 2023/24 which saw Unai Emery’s men qualify for the Champions League and they can be sided with at 17/10 to kick-off the new term with a win.
Lucas Paqueta remains one of the most talented players currently at West Ham and for my first bet in the capital, I’m backing the Brazilian to win 2+ fouls. Sky Bet have this selection at 10/11, while Paddy Power and Betfair are considerably shorter at just 4/9.
Looking back at Paqueta’s data from last season, he started 16 home league matches and was fouled at least twice in 12 of those. With a 75% success rate and odds of 10/11 only implying a 52% chance of this selection landing, I make this a value bet. It’s also worth noting that Paqueta was fouled 3 or more times in eight of those 16 home league matches last season.
At 6/1 with Paddy Power, I’ve also had a punt on Morgan Rogers to have a shot on target, along with John McGinn and Ezri Konsa to win 2+ fouls. Ollie Watkins has not featured in any pre-season game for Villa, but one player who has impressed and should start is Morgan Rogers. At the back end of last season Rogers scored in three of the final five games of the campaign and I fancy him to carry that form into this new term.
Moving onto the fouls won, and the first player in this Bet Builder is John McGinn. The Scot has been fouled at least twice in all of his last five top-flight matches and looking back a little further, he has cleared this line in 10 of his last 12.
Ezri Konsa is another Aston Villa player who drew plenty of fouls last season. The defender won two or more in 10 of his final 14 matches across all formats in 2023/24 and with West Ham having forwards such as Paqueta and Kudus who concede plenty of fouls, I think Konsa looks a good proposition.
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