West Ham vs. Southampton Betting Tips: Back Bowen in The Fouls Market on Sunday

The first of two top-flight fixtures on Sunday sees Southampton travel to the capital to take on West Ham in a crucial game at the bottom end of the table. We’ve once again called on Anthony Eadson to crunch the numbers and provide us with two data-driven tips.

Just one point separates these two sides heading into this weekend’s round of Premier League fixtures, with West Ham 18th in the standings and Southampton 20th. The Hammers are still in the Europa Conference League and play Belgium side Gent in the quarter-finals, which may hinder their chances of survival this campaign. However, David Moyes’ side has not suffered defeat in front of their own fans since December 2022, on a run of five games unbeaten in all competitions (W3 D2).

Southampton were 3-1 down and heading towards another damning defeat in their most recent outing before the International break, before goals from Theo Walcott and James Ward-Prowse from the spot rescued a point. Small improvements have been made since Ruben Selles took over but with just four points separating the bottom four sides in the lower half of the table, there is still plenty of reason to believe Saints can escape the drop.

The first selection I want to highlight on Sunday is for Jarrod Bowen to give away at least one foul, which is right up there as one of my best bets of the weekend at 4/5 with Paddy Power or Betfair.

Bowen may not be the first player that springs to mind when you think of common foul culprits, but his recent record makes for excellent reading. This bet has in fact landed in 10 of his last 11 Premier League matches with foul totals in that period of 2,1,1,0,2,1,1,3,1,3,1.

This is a huge game for both sides and it is cliche, and yes ‘six-pointer’ and ‘business-end of the season’ do come to mind with this one. I’m fancying David Moyes to have his side pumped for this one and at 4/5 Bowen looks a brilliant price considering his recent fouls record.

It’s also worth noting that nine of Jarrod Bowen’s ten goals for The Hammers this season have arrived at The London Stadium and we’ll also be having a little bit of loose change on him to score and commit 2+ fouls in the game.

This is available with both Betfair and Paddy Power again, this time at 14/1 via their Bet Builder feature. I’ve mentioned above about 90% of Bowen’s goals came in home matches this season and with Southampton conceding five across their last two matches, I think there’s scope for Bowen to bag here.

After making the case for the 4/5 for him to concede 1+ foul, I also perceive the 4/1 on show for Bowen to commit 2+ fouls as a tidy bit of value. In four of his last 11 starts the 26-year-old has cleared this line and combining it with him to score on Sunday pays 14/1.