West Ham United vs. Arsenal Predictions: Two stats-based plays for Sunday's clash

Arsenal are in pole position to secure Champions League football next season after Spurs dropped points to Brentford last weekend. Arteta’s side have emerged from a poor run of results by recordinf victories over Chelsea and Man United, but they will know the job is not done and will need to avoid another poor run of form before the curtain comes down on the season.

West Ham have designs on playing Champions League football next season but their focus is on winning the Europa League, The Hammers were beaten 2-1 by Frankfurt on Thrusday and there may be some fatigue going into this one given their midweek exploits.

Arsenal have benefitted by not having European football this season, allowing Arteta to minimise squad rotation and play his best eleven more often than not. However, they will be keen not to hand the initiative back to Spurs in the battle top four so a win is vital for Arsenal this weekend.

West Ham have some issues at the back, with Diop and Ogbonna ruled out through injury and Dawson suspended following his red card in the team’s last match. Arsenal are without Partey and Tierney, while Saka is a fitness worry after coming off against Manchester United last week.

Arsenal have looked good going forward in recent weeks and have created a lot of chances as a result. The team are averaging over 16 shots per game in their last 10 matches and they will fancy themselves to create a wealth of chances here given West Ham’s makeshift defence.

West Ham’s opponents are averaging over 15 shots per game in their last 10 matches in all competitions and Arsenal showed they are more than capable of getting at the Hammers in the reverse fixture this season; where they had 21 shots.

Arsenal shots should also lead to goal kicks for the home side. Arsenal’s opponents are averaging 8.5 goal kicks per game in their last 10 matches and West Ham had 7 when these teams met at the Emirates earlier this season. David Moyes’ side are also averaging over 8 goal kicks per game in their last 10 matches, so I’m happy to this angle to my main bet here.

Finally, to complete the set I will be adding Arsenal to have 4 corners or more. Arsenal have had 5 corners or more in their last 4 meetings with West Ham and the Gunners are averaging over 4 corners per game in their last 10 matches.

For my longshot, I’ll combine the tackles and throws lines to create a good price. I understand why the lines for these markets are so low, but there is definitely long shot value in overs.

West Ham matches have seen low tackle counts lately, with an average of just under 26 tackles per game. However, the last meeting between these sides saw 40 tackles. Arsenal’s last 10 matches are averaging 29.9 tackles, so I’m happy to back over 28.5 tackles here.

The last angle is throws. West Ham rank fairly low on the Premier League throws table, with an average of around 37 in each of their matches. However, the last meeting between these sides saw 45 throws in the match and Arsenal’s last 10 matches are averaging 44 throws per game.