Tuesday Football Tips: Stick with Diaz in the shots market

Liverpool will look to book their place in the Champions League final on Tuesday evening as they continue their quest for a famous quadruple. Jurgen Klopp’s side face Villarreal in the second leg of their semi-final tie, after a 2-0 victory at Anfield in the reverse fixture a week ago.

We’ve asked our in-house tipster @AnthonyEadson to provide us with his best Bet Builder picks for the evening and he’s picked out a three-pronged punt that he likes the look of. At the time of writing this can be backed at 8/5 using the Bet Builder feature on bet365

Unai Emery’s team have already beaten Bayern Munich at El Madrigal in the Champions League this season and Liverpool will be wary of letting the Spanish side back into the game as they head into this second leg with a 2-0 lead. 

I’m kicking off this Bet Builder with Luis Diaz to have Over 1.5 shots in the match which is priced at 2/5 with bet365 compared to just 1/8 over at Betfair and Paddy Power. The Colombian has been excellent since his arrival on Merseyside and has given the Reds the extra boost they need to be able to compete across four competitions. If Liverpool do reach the Champions League final, they will be set to compete in every possible fixture available to them this season. 

Looking back at Luis Diaz’s shot data, he is averaging 3.7 shots per 90 in the Premier League and 4.6 shots per 90 across the five European games he has featured in. The 25-year-old has cleared this line in 11 of his 13 starts for Liverpool (84.6%), and I expect him to once again, should he start this match. 

Next up I’m backing both teams to receive a card. The prospect of reaching a major final should be enough of an incentive to see plenty of fight here from both sides. In the semi-final second legs of last season’s renewal there were 13 yellows and one red card shown across the two matches, (PSG vs Man City & Real Madrid vs Chelsea). The referee for tonight’s game, Danny Makkelie averages 3.54 yellows per game across the 36 Champions League games he’s taken control of in his career and that figure rises to 4.60 per game (5 matches) in 2021/2022. 

Rounding off the trio of selections is Liverpool’s Thiago Alcantara to have over 75.5 passes in the match. Again, I feel bet365 are generously priced here on some of their lines with Paddy Power going 8/15 on 80+ and bet365 4/9 on Over 75.5. 

The Spaniard has been a pleasure to watch over the last few weeks, putting in some world class displays in the centre of the park. Across his last three matches which he has started, Thiago averages 112.3 passes per game, making 103 against Villarreal in the first leg. With this game being away from Anfield I don’t think we will see another three-figure haul for this evening and have therefore opted for the more cautious approach taking the Over 75.5.

I also think an early goal or two for the visitors could really help this line with Liverpool taking control of the tie. 

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