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Tottenham v West Ham Tips: Hosts expected to dominate this London derby

Son Heung-min heads up our trio of bets this evening.
Son Heung-min heads up our trio of bets this evening.

Neither Jose Mourinho or David Moyes will have been too pleased with the outcomes of their first matches after the restart. Spurs held the lead for the majority of the game against Manchester United on Friday evening and they will have been disappointed not to take all three points. Meanwhile West Ham put in a fairly lacklustre performance at home to Wolves last weekend, going down 2-0 in a game where they never seemed to get out of first gear. 

Neither side were in great form before the pandemic with Spurs now winless in 12 in all competitions, whilst the Hammers have taken all three points just once in their last ten Premier League games. Having a look at the prices for the win, BetVictor are 4/6 for a victory to Jose’s side, an implied chance of 60%. The draw remains 3/1 with most firms while Bet365 are top price (4/1) on a win for West Ham who were in fact the first away side to win at Tottenham’s new ground.

There could be possible returns for both Dele Alli and Lucas Moura in the Spurs line-up this evening. Alli is back from suspension whilst Moura returns from injury after picking up a knock in training last week. Sebastien Haller and Robert Snodgrass remain sidelined for David Moyes’ side, with Angelo Ogbonna facing a late fitness test after returning to training. The game is one of two in the Premier League this evening and can be seen live on Sky Sports Premier League, kicking off at 20:15.

Here’s our three tips for the game:

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Tottenham v West Ham Tip #1
20:15
Son Heung-min to have 2 or more shots on target
WIN PROB: 47.62%
1.1/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
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£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Son has scored nine goals in 22 starts this season
  • Averages 3.1 shot per 90 mins
Odds correct as of 2020-06-23 12:15 Odds subject to change.

Our first selection is Son Heung-min to have 2 or more shots on target. The South Korean has managed to reach double figures in the league in the previous three seasons and he needs just one more to do so this time round. Having scored nine in 22 starts in the league this season Son is averaging 3.1 shots per 90 minutes, which is more than any other member of the Spurs squad, including Harry Kane. 

I do feel West Ham are lacking in both confidence and quality at the moment and I don’t see things getting any easier for them tonight. Yes the intensity since the restart has not been as high and there’s no doubt this London derby would have benefitted from having fans in the stadium, but I see Spurs dominating this one and Son having a good few chances. 

Harry Kane looked off the pace at times against United on Friday, therefore Son is the value selection in the shots on target market as he is a bigger price than Kane, despite averaging more shots on goal than him per 90 minutes. 10/11 was widely available on this market but the lads over at Betfair have boosted this one to 11/10 making at a much more attractive price.

Tottenham v West Ham Tip #2
20:15
Spurs win, under 4.5 goals and Cresswell 1+ shot on target
WIN PROB: 7.69%
12/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Cresswell often takes free-kicks for West Ham, averages 0.9 shots per game
  • Over 4.5 goals has landed just once since the restart 
  • West Ham have only won one of their previous 10 league games
Odds correct as of 2020-06-23 12:15 Odds subject to change.

The second selection we have gone for this evening is a same game multi from Betfair made up of three elements. The first is Aaron Cresswell to have 1 or more shots on target. Betting on full-backs in the shots on target market can often be profitable, with shots on target landing for Ben Chilwell, Trent Alexander Arnold and Olexsander Zinchencko in the couple of days. 

Cresswell is often the free-kick taker for the Irons and with Robert Snodgrass sidelined, there shouldn’t be too much competition for the 30-year-old if there are any set pieces in dangerous areas this evening.

One stat that really impressed me about the left-back is that away from home he is averaging 0.9 shots per game. Now at first glance that might not sound very high but when you compare that to someone such as Luke Shaw who is averaging just 0.1 shots away from home per game, it makes a lot healthier reading. And for this reason with it being a decent price as a single I’m throwing Cresswell to have a shot on target into our multi.

We’ve mentioned already how we feel Spurs will have too much for Moyes’ men this evening and we are fancying them to take all three points. Further to this we have decided to go for under 4.5 goals in the match. The Manchester City v Burnley game last night was the first since the restart of the Premier League that has seen five goals and we’re confident that won’t be the case tonight.

So putting those three together we have a Spurs win, under 4.5 goals and Cresswell 1 shot on target. This was originally priced at 10/1 but we’ve managed to get a little boost once more off the boys in head office at Betfair giving us 12/1. 

Tottenham v West Ham Tip #3
20:15
Dele Alli to score, Harry Winks & Issa Diop to be booked
WIN PROB: 2.78%
35/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Alli has scored 8 league goals this term
  • Winks and Diop are their clubs' most-booked players with 8 yellows this season
Odds correct as of 2020-06-23 12:20 Odds subject to change.

The final selection for the evening is our longshot at 35/1 involving one player to score and two players to be carded. 

Dele Alli should come back into the starting line-up this evening after missing out last time due to suspension. In terms of goals scored and shots per game there’s only Kane and Son who are ahead of Dele in the statistics, and with eight already this season we fancy him to get on the scoresheet tonight.

Onto the cards and we’ve picked out a couple of usual suspects who are no stranger to a caution. First up Harry Winks, booked more times than any other player in the Spurs squad this season he’s racked up eight cautions in just 20 starts this time out and at 11/4 for the single, this looks good value to go into our multi.

Premier League odds

Finally we’ve gone for the ferocious Frenchman Issa Diop to be carded in tonight’s fixture. London derby’s can often rack up booking points and we have a feeling there will be plenty tonight. Diop has been booked more times than any other Hammers player, totting up eight in total in the league this season. 

He also is averaging 1.1 fouls per game away from home and with the pace of Son, Kane, Alli and potentially Lucas Moura running at him this evening we fancy him to pick up another caution. PaddyPower did have this priced at 30/1 but have kindly given it a little boost up to 35/1. We certainly feel this has a lot more of a chance than the 2.8% probability the odds imply. 

As always, please remember to gamble responsibility and enjoy the game. 

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