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Swindon vs Manchester City Odds: Three tips for Friday's potential giant killing

Can Pep's men avoid a potential upset in the FA Cup?
Can Pep's men avoid a potential upset in the FA Cup?

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This weekend's FA Cup third round action commences on Friday night at the County Ground as League Two Swindon welcome Premier League leaders Manchester City and it is live on ITV.

The hosts currently sit fifth in the fourth tier- 48 places below City- two points of Sutton United, who occupy the third automatic spot, though the Robins have a game in hand. In this competition, Ben Garner’s side have already seen off Crewe Alexandra in the first round and Walsall in the second, though this clash presents them with an entirely different task epitomised by the fact that they are 50/1 to win with Sky Bet. This, in terms of probability, that price translates to just a 2% chance of victory. However, it is worth noting that City have shipped goals against Wycombe, Port Vale and Cheltenham Town over the past three seasons, the latter were a goal to the good with nine minutes to play so an upset is not entirely out of the question… 

Swindon vs Man City Tips

Pep Guardiola’s side are just coming to the boil, as is frequently the case at this time of the year. Last season, they won 21 matches, in all competitions on the spin, in an unbelievable run stretching from mid-December to the start of March. Having won their last six games, Pep’s side look to be emulating that this season. 

In terms of team news, the Spanish supremo will no doubt shuffle his deck here, but with a wealth of talent it is almost impossible to predict exactly what XI he will field as Guardiola is notoriously difficult to second guess on the best of occasions. Phil Foden and Oleksandr Zinchenko missed the last game with COVID so may not feature here. Zack Steffen should start in between the sticks, Cole Palmer will also likely feature from the off- whether that be in midfield or attack remains to be seen- and Jack Grealish should come back in from the cold having not played a minute since City’s 7-0 win over Leeds.

Swindon vs Man City Odds

Today's Tips
Cole Palmer Anytime - 1.5pts
11/8
Odds correct as of 2022-01-06 05:22 Odds subject to change.

Opportunities in the first team have been few and far between for Cole Palmer this season, however, when he is handed one he has taken it. In the Champions League and EFL Cup, he has played a combined total of 136 minutes, scoring twice. 

For the youth side over the past two seasons, he has directly contributed to 27 goals in 22 appearances with a G+A per 90 average of 1.33, granted this is a completely different proposition but he has already shown he is desperate to prove himself this season so I think backing him to score anytime here is worth a punt.

Swindon vs Man City Match Zone
Louis Reed Card - 1pt
4/1
Odds correct as of 2022-01-06 05:25 Odds subject to change.

With five cards in 20 league appearances, Louis Reed’s price of 4/1 with Bet365 immediately appeals. That is despite the fact that he has a cards per 90 average of 0.19 over the course of his domestic career. 

In all competitions this campaign, he has picked up eight cards in 23 appearances, five of which coming in his last eight appearances as he has had his name taken in both of the first two rounds of this competition. 

Swindon have the highest average possession of any side in League Two by some distance (60.4%) and Reed plays a pivotal role in that. Often anchoring his sides midfield in the quarterback role, he is utilised for his ability on the ball, which makes sense as Reed is a tidy player that is extremely easy on the eye. He tops his sides charts for average passes (71.3 per game) and ranks second for key passes averaging 1.3 per game. If Gibson encourages the Robins to be brave in possession on Friday, I think Reed could be in for a long night. Given the opposition's tactical nous, I think he will be targeted in the press which makes him a likely candidate for a card. 

Averaging two tackles, 0.9 interceptions and fouls per game, Reed is not opposed to getting stuck in and, given the quality of the visitors side, he may struggle to stay out of trouble. The likes of Grealish, Foden, Jesus and Gundogan could all feature here.

Palmer Anytime and Reed Card - 0.25pts
10/1
Odds correct as of 2022-01-06 05:27 Odds subject to change.

If you want something with a bit more juice you can combine the two selections above at odds of 10.5 with Bet365. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.

Jimmy The Punt P/L 2022: +1pt 

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