Southampton v Leicester Tips: Best bets for Friday Night Football
Gameweek 34 commences on the south coast on Friday evening as Southampton welcome Leicester to St Mary’s Stadium.
It was a Friday night on this ground when the Foxes ran riot winning 9-0 last campaign and while history is extremely unlikely to repeat itself (0-9 correct score is 200/1) given the two teams' forms coming into this one you cannot rule it out.
The hosts have been horrendous since the turn of the year, no team has collected fewer points (ten) or conceded more goals (39)! On the other hand, only Manchester United and City have won more than Brenden Rodgers' side.
Therefore, it should come as no surprise to see the visitors are even-money favourites here and this price could even present some value given that Leicester have won 57% of their games when priced as such.
With Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side's last game being nine games ago, he may have Danny Ings and Ryan Bertrand back at his disposal although this fixture may have come too soon for the former. Elsewhere, Alex McCarthy should continue in between the sticks having regained his spot in the starting XI vs Spurs.
As for the visitors, Rodgers has had much less time to prepare for this game as they faced Palace at home on Monday. With James Justin and Harvey Barnes the only long term absentees the Leicester boss could field a similar eleven to the one that beat Palace on Monday evening.
Ibrahima Diallo has picked up three cards in Ligue 1 and the English top flight this season, one of which came in the reverse of this fixture. With Romeu ruled out of this one, the Frenchman is expected to continue in the middle of the park for the Saints alongside Ward-Prowse.
Despite the fact that Diallo’s defensive output is not particularly outstanding - averages 1.5 tackles and 1.1 fouls per game - he will have a lot more work to do off the ball than on it on Friday evening when Leicester come to town.
With the likes of Youri Tielemans, James Maddison and Ayoze Perez, the Foxes' engine room can be a tricky entity to contain. This is best illustrated by the fact that at least one central midfielder has been booked in 12 of Leicester’s last 16 EPL games.
The likes of Rodri, Fernandinho, Lundstram, Douglas Luiz, Curtis Jones, Ruben Neves, Kovacic and Havertz have all been cautioned vs Brendan Rodger’s men.
It is worth noting that Robert Jones is overseeing this fixture and whilst he is not the most prolific referee the EPL has to offer in terms of cards - averaging 2.71 per game - I do think there is enough underlying data here to make this a worthy punt.
Of Leicester’s last ten EPL games, 80% of them have seen three or more goals and all of them have featured at least two! During that time only the two Manchester clubs have scored more goals than the Foxes total of 24.
In stark contrast, over the same period of time no side has conceded more goals than Southampon who have shipped 34 goals since the end of January. The next biggest total is Sheffield United, who have conceded eleven goals fewer. All bar two of the Saints last ten top flight games have seen over 2.5 goals.
Using Bet365’s ‘Bet Builder’ feature you can combine the two selections outlined above with a Kelechi Iheanacho goal at odds of 16/1.
The Nigerian striker has hit a purple patch bagging nine goals in his last seven games, which includes a hat-trick against the Blades and a brace vs West Ham. In fact, the only time he failed to find the net in that period was against Man City.
During that time he has racked up 27 shots - 13 of which on target - and generated an xG of 4.30. Therefore, he will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing a side that has conceded two or more goals in each of their last five EPL games.
Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly!
