Southampton vs. Liverpool Predictions: Stats Based Bets at St Mary's

Liverpool take on Southampton on Tuesday night as Klopp’s side aim to keep the pressure on rivals Manchester City heading into the last day of the season. The Reds played a gruelling 120 minutes at the weekend before clinching the FA Cup and they will be hoping that fatigue doesn’t become an issue here.

Southampton currently sit on 40 points, so they need a point to guarantee Premier League survival. It is unlikely they will face the drop at this stage, but if results went against them elsewhere they could still go down via goal difference.

Hasenhuttl’s side have a torrid record against Liverpool, losing 8 of the last 10 meetings. They were battered 4-0 when the teams met at Anfield earlier in the season and they come in too this game having been beaten comprehensively by Brentford in their last match. Amazingly, Southampton’s only win in their last 11 matches came against Arsenal, but I’m expecting Liverpool to pile on the misery here.

Southampton will have to soak up a lot of pressure here as the formidable Liverpool attack lays siege to their goal. The Saints have really struggled to contain Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea in recent seasons and I expect that trend to continue here.

Liverpool had 20 shots when these sides met earlier in the season and their overall numbers have been high throughout the season. Klopp’s team are averaging over 17 shots per game in their last 10 matches and Southampton themselves are conceding over 15 shots per game on average in their last 10 matches,

Hasenhuttl’s side had 13 goal kicks when these sides met earlier in the season and they had 9 in their last match against Brentford. Liverpool provide a much greater threat than Brentford and I’m expecting Southampton to have a large number of goal kicks as a result. Liverpool opponents are averaging 10.8 goal kicks per game in their last 10 matches in all competitions and I think they will force the home side into taking a similar number here.

I’ve taken these angles in my recent Liverpool match previews and I’m happy to back it again given the numbers and the recent success.

This longer odds bet landed with ease when these sides met earlier in the season and nothing has changed in the fortunes of both teams to suggest it won't happen again. I’ve taken the shots and goal kicks from out main bet but increased the required number to give us a better price, but the goals add significant value too.

Liverpool are averaging 2.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches where they have been priced similarly to win and Southampton are conceding 2.4 goals in their last 5 similar matches. Hasenhuttl’s men have conceded 9 goals in the 4 games since their victory over Arsenal, and Liverpool are more than capable of exploiting their defensive frailties.