Southampton vs. Chelsea Predictions: Back goals at St Mary's

The matches are coming thick-and-fast for Thomas Tuchel's Chelsea who look to put a nightmare week behind them on Saturday when they travel down to the south coast to face a Southampton side winless in five matches in all competitions…

Chelsea’s confidence, swagger, and defensive solidity have deserted them at a pivotal point in the season. A 4-1 thumping at home to Brentford in the league was swiftly followed by a damaging mid-week defeat to Real Madrid (1-3). Not only have their hopes of making the Champions League semi-finals been dealt a hammer-blow, but a previously secure place in the top-four now looks increasingly precarious.

Perhaps fortunately, Chelsea’s next fixture is away from home down at St Mary’s where they come up against a Southampton team enduring their own problems of late. The Saints have drawn one and lost four of their last five league and cup games, dropping out of the top-10 to 12th, although they are just one point off 9th, such is the crowded nature of the mid-sector of the league.

Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side have lost their last three matches on their own patch but Saturday’s clash against a wounded and stricken Chelsea offers the hosts an opportunity to bounce back with a first league home win in six weeks.

Southampton can be backed at 3/1 to do just that, but it’s Chelsea who are the odds-on favourites at 10/11 to return to winning ways this weekend. Alternatively, a draw can be backed at 11/4.

It’s worth noting that Southampton will be without key striker Armando Broja who is ineligible because he’s on-loan from Chelsea, while it will be interesting to see if Thomas Tuchel switches things up following consecutive losses.

Southampton have been a punters dream in the both teams to score market. This bet has landed in whopping 15 of their last 18 matches in all competitions, including the last four in a row. The same has been the case in 10 of the club’s last dozen home games, and in each of their last four head-to-head clashes with Chelsea.

Furthermore, while Southampton have now conceded in 21 of their last 23 matches, they’ve also not exactly struggled to find the back of the net, scoring in 17 of the last 18.

On top of that, there have been over 2.5 goals in four of Southampton’s past five home games, and in 10 of their previous 15 matches (home and away).

Costly individual errors have crept into Chelsea’s game of late and cut the club deep during back-to-back defeats to Brentford and Real Madrid, during which they leaked in a combined seven goals at the Bridge.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in six of Chelsea’s last eight games, with BTTS occurring in five matches during that run. Earlier this season they left it late to beat the Saints 3-1, which was followed by a 1-1 draw in the EFL Cup, with the Blues progressing on penalties.

We fancy goals to be on the cards at both ends at St Mary’s with over 2.5 goals and BTTS our first bet at a combined 2.57/1 with SBK.

Reece James has been a central component in Chelsea’s attacking play this season through his electric runs, pin-point passes, and powerful strikes. He certainly has developed an eye for goal - six this season - and also has seven assists stamped on the board, including seven in 18 Premier League appearances so far this term - ranking him third for defenders behind the Liverpool duo of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson.

The right-back is 4.62 for xA (Expected Assists) in the Premier League and has an xA90 of 0.34, second behind Alexander-Arnold when it comes to defenders. He’s likely to get plenty of offensive opportunities against Southampton, who have conceded in 21 of their last 23 matches, and he catches the eye at 9/2 (Paddy Power) to register his third assist in his last seven league games.