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Saturday Football Tips: Cancelo to hit the target in 4/1 Bet Builder

Joao Cancelo has let off 23 more shots than any other defender in the Premier League this season
Joao Cancelo has let off 23 more shots than any other defender in the Premier League this season

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Leeds vs Man City Odds

Six games take place in the Premier League on Saturday and after winners in this column last Saturday and Tuesday, we’ve once again asked @AnthonyEadson to provide us with his best Bet Builder picks.

It’s a 4/1 double with BetVictor that he’s picked out for Saturday’s action, with the first selection coming from Vicarage Road, before a shout from the shots market at Elland Road at 5:30pm. 

Bet Builder Tips

Football Betting Tips
Burnley Double Chance & Joao Cancelo 1+ Shot on Target
4/1
Odds correct as of 2022-04-29 11:40 Odds subject to change.

The first part of this 4/1 double is Burnley to avoid defeat as they travel to Watford. This is a huge game at the bottom of the table with the home side realistically needing a win if they are to stand any chance of survival this season. 

Watford’s form at home this season has been borderline shambolic with Roy Hodgson’s side suffering defeats in their last 10 matches at Vicarage Road, conceding at least two goals in the last six of those. 

The Clarets on the other hand, have managed to pick up points at a crucial point of the season and come into this match off the back of seven points from their last three games. Victories over Southampton and Wolves as well as a point against West Ham, all under caretaker manager Mike Jackson, will give Burnley plenty of belief that they can pick up all three points and move further away from the drop zone. 

The second half of this double is a selection that looks like a really good value play in my opinion, with Joao Cancelo being priced at 5/2 with BetVictor to register 1+ shot on target. The full-back comes into this game against Leeds fresh, after missing out on Tuesday’s game against Real Madrid due to suspension. 

Premier League Odds

In the Premier League this season, no other defender has let off as many shots as Cancelo with 66 at an average of 2.13 per game. To put that into perspective, that’s 23 more shots than any other defender in the league, with Antonio Rudiger second on the list with 43. It also ranks Cancelo 15th for the most shots in the entire division this season, which is quite remarkable for a defender. 

When it comes to hitting the target, Cancelo has registered 21 in total in the league in 2021/2022. This selection for the 31-year-old to have 1+ shot on target has landed in 14 of his 31 games this season (45%), and with odds of 5/2 implying just a 28.6% chance of it landing, I’m confident that we are getting a nice bit of value.

Paddy Power, William Hill, and Betfred are all odds-on for Cancelo to hit the target and I’d imagine the 5/2 with BetVictor will be gone before kick-off on Saturday. I’ll also be backing Cancelo at 29/20 for 2+ shots in the game, again with BetVictor. Best of luck to those following on Saturday.

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