Real Valladolid v Atletico Madrid Tips: Tight and testy affair predicted on Judgement Day for Atleti

Saturday's cynosure of the footballing action on the continent comes via Spain as Real Valladolid lock horns with Atletico Madrid at the José Zorrilla Stadium.

It’s the final day of the season and this fixture will have huge ramifications at both ends of the league. A win for Diego Simeone’s men and Atleti will be crowned as Champions. They currently sit two points clear of Real Madrid and their superior goal difference could even see them lift the trophy as long as their local rivals do not win by more than three goals. The visitors are priced at around 3/10- implied probability of 77%- but Atleti have actually won 81% of their games when priced accordingly.

Simeone will be without Stefan Savic in defence due to suspension following the Montenegrin fifteen booking of the season. Jose Gimenez will slot in at RCB. The visitors are expected to deploy a 3-5-2 formation with Yannick Carrasco and Kieren Trippier providing the width and Angel Correa should partner Luis Suarez up top.

The hosts currently languish in 19th, two points from safety, therefore, only a victory will suffice here. Sergio González Soriano will be without the services of Raul Garcia and Kenan Kodro this weekend through injury, whilst Ruben Alcaraz and Robert Jimenez miss out through suspension. 

At 4/1, Jose Gimenez’s price for a card takes appeal here. The Uruguayan defender has picked up a card in a quarter of his domestic appearances this campaign, however, the implied probability of his odds is 20% making his price marginally value as is. It is worth noting that his direct opponent is Oscar Plano, the visitors second most fouled player this season drawing an average of 1.7 per game.

In terms of price, Bet365’s 4/1 is the best available as the same bet is as short as 2/1 elsewhere. It also does not hurt that Sunday’s referee is José María Sánchez Martínez, the Spanish whistleblower who has brandished an average of 5.65 cards per game in La Liga this season, 18Y in his last three games!

Simeone should have had this league title wrapped up already given the position his side were in at the beginning of February; ten points clear with a game in hand. However, Los Colchoneros appear to have tired as the season reached its business end. They have had a few injuries to key players at crucial moments but it should not come as a surprise to see that Real Madrid are in with a chance of pipping the title at the last minute. Therefore, the visitors will be keen to keep this one as tight as possible and protect their slender lead at the top of the league.

Given the magnitude of this fixture for Pucela as well, this could be a very cagey affair as has been the case in their last three home fixtures where this bet has landed. 

I also want to doth my card to a Jordi Masip booking. Valladolid’s shot stopper has racked up 13 throughout the course of his career and with the stakes so high this evening he could add to that tally.

Masip has picked up three bookings this season, however, surprisingly none of which have been for time wasting. All of them have been for arguing with the referee and/or players, one of which he got whilst on the bench! Therefore, at the price quoted I think it is a worthy punt, however, this could creep up as the game goes on especially if Atleti take the lead early. 

Using Bet365’s ‘Bet Builder’ feature you can combine a Gimenez card with a Suarez and Koke card at odds of 75/1.

At 10/3 for a card with 365, Luis Suarez may be worth a punt as a single. Atleti’s ageing talisman has played with a vengeance all campaign after being released from rivals Barcelona. In his last appearance he bagged a late, late winner to keep his sides in pole position for the title and the outburst of passion and jubilation was palpable. This is personal for him, he's a winner and his gamesmanship knows no bounds, therefore, I would be very surprised if he does not have his name taken today. You also cannot leave Koke out of Atleti’s list of likely lads. The Spaniard has picked up nine bookings this campaign.

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.