Real Madrid v Villarreal Tips: Three bets for a thrilling last day of La Liga

Only a win will do for Real Madrid as they lock horns with Villarreal in their final game of this season's La Liga campaign.

The visitors currently sit in second place on 81 points, trailing leaders Atletico by two points. A victory for Zidane’s men could see them leapfrog their local rivals if Atleti drop points against Real Valladolid to pinch the title in the most dramatic circumstances. Price wise, unsurprisingly, the bookies do fancy them posting them up around 2/5 to secure the three points here. Staggeringly, the visitors- priced at 11/2- have only won 1% of their games when priced accordingly.

Zinedine Zidane will be without Lucas Vazquez, Ferland Mendy and Dani Carvajal. This should mean Federico Valverde gets the nod in midfield alongside Casemiro and Modric and Nacho should also feature at left back. Real Madrid fans will be hoping Raphael Varane and Sergio Ramos are both fit to start at the heart of defence, however, both are doubts. Elsewhere, Rodrygo and Vinicius should flank Karim Benzema up top.

As for the visitors, Samuel Chukwueze, Juan Foyth and Vicente Iborra are doubts for this one but Etienne Capoue is back available following suspension and should start here.

Since the 2014/15 season, Sergio Ramos has racked up 197 shots in La Liga Real Madrid and over half of those have come via his bonce (100). It is also worth noting 39% of his goals have come courtesy of his head. This season he has had eight headed shots, seven right footed shots and two left footed shots but half of his shots on target this campaign have been headers.

On a more human level, Sergio Ramos is not one to shirk the big occasion and he certainly won’t go missing on Saturday evening. He has popped up with some crucial goals for club and country through-out his career and you would imagine he’ll do everything in his power to secure the three points here. 

Etienne Capoue has featured for a combined total of 2434 minutes whilst representing Watford in the Championship and Villarreal in the Europa League and La Liga this season. During which time he has accumulated nine bookings and two red cards meaning that he has averaged one every 221 minutes played.

Domestically, the French midfielder tops The Yellow Submarine’s charts for fouls per game (1.7) committing more fouls than he does complete tackles.

Capoue missed his side's last fixture but should return at the base of a midfield three this evening and given what is at stake for the hosts it will mean Capoue will have plenty to do  defensively.

In terms of price, Bet365’s 11/4 is the best available, the same bet is as short as 9/5 elsewhere. Capoue has picked up a card in 43% of his appearances in La Liga, yet at 11/4 the implied probability of him picking one up here is just 26.7%.

Using Bet365’s ‘Bet Builder’ I have combined a Capoue booking with a Valverde card at odds of 25/1. The Uruguayan midfielder does not have the worst disciplinary record, in fact he has not picked up a single card in the league all season. However, he has picked up three cards in just 489 minutes of UCL action. It is also worth noting that he will be covering Gerard Moreno, the visitors most fouled player drawing an average of 1.8 per game.

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.