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Premier League Without the Top Six Odds: Leicester pose good value in the market

Brendan Rodgers' Leicester are an attractive proposition in the betting market
Brendan Rodgers' Leicester are an attractive proposition in the betting market

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That painstaking football-less period of the yearly calendar feels especially longer than usual this time around. Without a major summer tournament to occupy ourselves with, it's been radio silent since the full-time whistle blew in Paris for the Champions League final.

But before you know it, the sun will be shining down on a wealth of pre-season friendlies, beer gardens will be dominated by discussions of the new season and the ante-post betting markets will be in full swing.

Here at BettingOdds.com, we've looked into one particular market being offered by a number of bookmakers, which is the Premier League 22/23 winner without the top six clubs of Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United.

Through an assessment of the odds, we've highlighted Leicester's price as one that could offer some potential value, and have stated our case for why we believe they could be worth a punt.

Premier League Without Top Six Odds

  • PROB
    %
Newcastle United
WIN PROB: 36%
West Ham United
WIN PROB: 18%
Brighton
WIN PROB: 14%
Aston Villa
WIN PROB: 13%
Leicester
WIN PROB: 10%
Crystal Palace
WIN PROB: 6%
Wolverhampton
WIN PROB: 5%
Everton
WIN PROB: 4%
Brentford
WIN PROB: 3%
Leeds
WIN PROB: 3%
Southampton
WIN PROB: 2%
Fulham
WIN PROB: 2%
Nottingham Forest
WIN PROB: 1%
AFC Bournemouth
WIN PROB: 1%
Odds correct as of 2022-08-08 12:33 Odds subject to change.

Outright betting in the Premier League winners market has become somewhat of a stale enterprise recently. Under the Pep Guardiola era at Manchester City, the sustained competitive Liverpool thanks to Jurgen Klopp and a supporting cast of unreliable fringe clubs, there isn't much to go at value wise.

However, William Hill are one of numerous bookmakers offering again a more intriguing proposition for the new campaign. A market excluding the top flight's 'big six' is an opportunity to find value in an otherwise limited ante-post market.

Notable Odds

Newcastle - 9/4

Eddie Howe's Toon army are the short-priced favourite in the betting at 9/4. The Magpies have recruited cleverly so far over the summer, making the loan of Matt Targett permanent from Aston Villa, before then drafting in Nick Pope from Burnley and Sven Botman from Lille to bolster their defensive line.

Newcastle's 2022 form is the shining beacon that appears to have convinced the bookies to price them this short. This year, only Liverpool (51), Manchester City (43) and Tottenham (41) picked up more points in the Premier League than they managed (38).

Their shortness does, however, pave the way for bigger prices elsewhere in what could prove to be a real miscalculation for those offering the market.

West Ham - 4/1

Next up are West Ham who can be backed at 4/1 at the time of writing. The Hammers appear to have things in order as they approach pre-season, with not much speculation surrounding their prized asset in Declan Rice, while the addition of the experienced Mark Warburton to David Moyes' backroom staff was a head-turning acquisition.

Despite a congested campaign that saw them juggle European football alongside domestic requirements, The Irons reached the UEL semi-finals and were within touching distance of finishing above Manchester United; completing their term with a Europa League Conference spot and a 7th placed finish.

This was all while only managing to record three wins from 11 PL fixtures between the beginning of March and the end of the season - a tally that still helped them finish as winners for this exact market.

Crystal Palace - 14/1

Palace's 21/22 campaign was one of major transition following four seasons under Roy Hodgson. They tore up the book on philosophy and started afresh, altering their recruitment policy to fit Patrick Vieira's new regime.

And it seems to have paid off so far. Not only were The Eagles more attractive on the eye, they ended the season in 12th - with just four points separating themselves and Leicester in 8th - which was an improvement on the two consecutive 14th placed finishes they endured previously.

The loss of loanee Conor Gallagher will of course be a significant one, but if they can retain their wealth of attacking options and keep them fit for the season, there's no doubt they could scratch that value itch at 14s - the same price as Everton and Wolves for some further context.

Premier League Odds

Are Leicester the Value Pick?

Considering all of this, Leicester City could be the team to offer value in this market at 11/2 with William Hill. If you shop around elsewhere, you can find them at a slightly larger 6/1. 

Here's why we believe they are the most attractive proposition without the top six:

Previous Seasons

  • 2014/15: 14th
  • 2015/16: 1st
  • 2016/17: 12th
  • 2017/18: 9th
  • 2018/19: 9th
  • 2019/20: 5th
  • 2020/21: 5th
  • 2021/22: 8th

Since the Foxes returned to the Premier League eight years ago, they have six top 10 finishes to their name. The only two times they've missed out on this achievement is either side of their odds-defying campaign that ended in them being crowned PL champions.

Furthermore, if this very market had been around all that time, they would have produced a winner on three different occasions, including twice in the last three seasons.

Despite an underwhelming domestic season for them last time out, they still managed to finish within four points of West Ham and will have a leg up on them going into the new campaign.

The Brendan Rodgers Effect

They have their manager to largely thank for this recent success. The new campaign will see the 49-year-old take control as Leicester boss for a fourth season, steering them to their very first FA Cup trophy, multiple European ventures and a Community Shield victory over Manchester City during this time.

Frustrations over narrowly missing out on Champions League football two seasons in a row shouldn't cloud the foundations that the Irishman has established at the King Power. He's built a very well balanced team that is successfully promoting youth and acquiring talent at reasonable prices while helping exponentially increase their value.

There's a reason that Leicester have managed to assert themselves as one of the recognised teams knocking on the door of the elite six - and Brendan Rodgers is at the forefront of that conversation.

No Europe, No Problem

An underachieving 21/22 campaign can almost solely be attributed to the demands of an exhausting fixture schedule. Leicester were stretching themselves too thin, playing twice a week across a season where they reached the quarter-finals of the inaugural Europa Conference League after elimination from the Europa League group stages.

Blighted by injuries and unable to cope with the demands, Leicester struggled to find their rhythm at any real stage of the season, both domestically and even in Europe, too.

Significant absences to key individuals such as Jamie Vardy, Jonny Evans, Timothy Castagne, Ricardo Pereira and Wesley Fofana - all for a number of months - made matters extremely difficult, especially from a defensive point of view.

Without the injury turmoil that comes as a byproduct of a congested calendar, Leicester has enough quality and depth among their rankings to contend with the league's top six and finish the highest of any club outside them.

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