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Premier League Top at Christmas Odds 22/23: In 10 of the last 13 seasons, the team that has been top at Christmas has gone on to lift the trophy

Top at Christmas Odds: Pep's side had a 4 point lead at Christmas last season
Top at Christmas Odds: Pep's side had a 4 point lead at Christmas last season

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The new Premier League season kicks off in five weeks time and as part of our ante-post series here at BettingOdds.com we’ve taken a look at the market for who will be top of the pile on Christmas day.

In 10 of the last 13 seasons, the team that has been top on Christmas day has gone on to lift the Premier League trophy, with Manchester City most recently doing so in 2021/2022 when they had a four point lead over Liverpool. 

Top at Christmas Odds

  • PROB
    %
Man City
WIN PROB: 60%
Liverpool
WIN PROB: 33%
Tottenham
WIN PROB: 9%
Chelsea
WIN PROB: 9%
Arsenal
WIN PROB: 4%
Man Utd
WIN PROB: 3%
Newcastle
WIN PROB: 1%
Aston Villa
WIN PROB: 1%
Leicester
WIN PROB: 1%
West Ham
WIN PROB: 1%
Brighton
WIN PROB: 1%
Leeds
WIN PROB: 0%
Brentford
WIN PROB: 0%
Everton
WIN PROB: 0%
Wolverhampton
WIN PROB: 0%
Crystal Palace
WIN PROB: 0%
Southampton
WIN PROB: 0%
Fulham
WIN PROB: 0%
Bournemouth
WIN PROB: 0%
Nottm Forest
WIN PROB: 0%
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Odds correct as of 2022-07-30 18:53 Odds subject to change.
Top At Xmas Odds
Premier League Odds

Manchester City - 4/6 

Unsurprisingly, Pep Guardiola’s side are the favorites to be table-toppers at Christmas with a price of 4/6 available with bookmaker bet365. Those odds imply a 60% chance of this selection landing, which is slightly bigger than the 4/7 that is on show for them to lift the trophy in May. 

It’s hard to argue against City repeating their success of last season considering the strength in depth they possess. 

City have also made some significant improvements to their already star-studded squad this summer, most notably with Norwegian goal-bot Erling Haaland. Kalvin Phillips will add strength to the midfield, while Julian Alvarez will also help fill the hole that Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus’ departure will leave. At 4/6 it’s hard to see City not being top at Christmas. 

Liverpool - 2/1

To many punters Liverpool are the only team who could potentially challenge Manchester City once again this season, and the Reds can be found at 2/1 to be on top of the pile on 25 December. Sadio Mane may have departed for Bayern Munich, but with the arrival of Darwin Nunez and a first full season ahead for Luis Diaz, there’s still plenty of reasons for defences to be fearful of this attack. Liverpool first play Manchester City in October, which will be at Anfield and could give them a slight edge. This could be one of the reasons why they are slightly shorter in this market than in the outright winner market. 

Spurs - 10/1

Tottenham ended last season strongly to beat their North London rivals Arsenal to the fourth and final Champions League spot in the Premier League, losing just one of their last seven matches. Dejan Kulusevski was a key player for Spurs in their quest for fourth last season, providing five goals and eight assists since arriving in January. Rodrigo Bentancur also put in some classy performances in the second half of the campaign and with the Lilywhites already making some smart signings in Yves Bissouma, Ivan Perisic and Richarlison, they look like a squad who is much more prepared to be competitive in numerous competitions in the forthcoming campaign. We do think the gap between Spurs and the top-two this season will be shortened a little, and we would be more inclined to back them to be top at Xmas rather than to win the league, with fatigue a potential factor if competing in numerous competitions in the final months of the season.

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 Chelsea - 10/1 

Also at 10/1 in the ‘to be top at Christmas’ market is Chelsea. The Blues have been linked with several high-profile transfers in recent weeks from Robert Lewandowski to Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling, with the latter apparently close to finalising a deal. However, none of the potential arrivals to Chelsea have been quite as eye-catching as Cristiano Ronaldo, who at the time of writing is 6/4 to swap Manchester for London this window. Todd Boehly reportedly held a meeting with Jorge Mendes in Portugal last week and the idea of bringing Ronaldo to the Bridge had been discussed. Whatever happens this summer, Chelsea look intent on bringing in a couple of big signings which could see their price shorten, so we’d be advising taking the price now should you want the Blues onside in this market.

Manchester United - 25/1

Next in the market we have Manchester United who can be found at 25/1. It’s a new era at the club with Erik Ten Hag now in charge and the only signings he has made so far are Tyrell Malacia and Christian Eriksen. United need to improve significantly should they wish to be anywhere near the top-four come the end of the season. With rumblings of a Cristiano Ronaldo departure also prominent, it doesn’t feel like the ideal start to life in Manchester for the new man in charge. 

Arsenal - 28/1

Whisper it quietly but we actually think Arsenal could go quite well this season. We’ve been impressed with how Mikel Arteta has ditched the dead wood at the Emirates and has put his stamp on this young squad. Consistency is key for the Gunners but we’d be much more inclined to back them over Manchester United at the slightly bigger price of 28/1

Best of the rest

Taking a look at the others in the betting and with their new found millions after their Saudi takeover,  Newcastle can be found at 80/1 to top the charts at Christmas. West Ham, Leicester City and Aston Villa can be backed at 100/1, although it’s worth noting that bet365 are not offering each-way places on this market.

Premier League Odds

Manchester City
WIN PROB: 65%
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Liverpool
WIN PROB: 23%
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3/1
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Tottenham
WIN PROB: 7%
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Chelsea
WIN PROB: 6%
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Arsenal
WIN PROB: 4%
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Manchester United
WIN PROB: 1%
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Newcastle United
WIN PROB: 1%
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Brighton
WIN PROB: 0%
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West Ham United
WIN PROB: 0%
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Leicester
WIN PROB: 0%
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Aston Villa
WIN PROB: 0%
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Everton
WIN PROB: 0%
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Wolverhampton
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Crystal Palace
WIN PROB: 0%
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Leeds
WIN PROB: 0%
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Southampton
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Brentford
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Nottingham Forest
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Fulham
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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AFC Bournemouth
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Each Way Terms
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Odds correct as of 2022-08-10 07:43 Odds subject to change.
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