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Premier League Relegation Betting: A look at the bottom-eight and who's in contention for the drop

Premier League Relegation Betting: Steve Bruce's injury-hit side are on the cusp of danger
Premier League Relegation Betting: Steve Bruce's injury-hit side are on the cusp of danger

With the business end of the Premier League season approaching, the fight for survival is really starting to heat up. Just 10 points currently separate 18th-placed Fulham and 13th-placed Crystal Palace as things stand, so the race is extremely tight. 

Below, BettingOdds.com looks at the sides in contention for the drop and assesses who we think will have enough about them to remain in the top-flight for next season.

Sheffield United - 1/66 (98% chance of relegation)

Last five results:

  • Sheffield Utd 0-2 Liverpool
  • Fulham 1-0 Sheffield Utd
  • West Ham 3-0 Sheffield Utd
  • Sheffield Utd 1-2 Chelsea
  • Sheffield Utd 2-1 West Brom

Upcoming five fixtures:

  • Aston Villa (H)
  • Southampton (H)
  • Leicester (A)
  • Leeds (A)
  • Arsenal (H)

Bottom side Sheffield United have had a disastrous time of it this season after impressing so much throughout 2019-20. The Blades have amassed just 11 points from a potential 78 on offer and look all but gone after 26 games. Despite beating Manchester United at Old Trafford in January, Chris Wilder’s side have been largely disappointing and will surely be plying their trade in the Championship next term. At a best-price 1/66 for relegation, the bookies certainly think so too.

Bottom Eight Creative_7

West Brom - 1/14 (93.5% chance of relegation)

Last five results:

  • West Brom 1-0 Brighton
  • Burnley 0-0 West Brom
  • West Brom 1-1 Manchester Utd
  • Tottenham 2-0 West Brom
  • Sheffield Utd 2-1 West Brom

Upcoming five fixtures:

  • Everton (H)
  • Newcastle (H)
  • Crystal Palace (A)
  • Chelsea (A)
  • Southampton (H)

Similar to Sheffield United, West Brom have a huge job on their hands if they are to retain their Premier League status beyond this campaign. The Baggies currently find themselves nine points from safety and have won just three games all season, their most recent victory coming on Saturday against fellow strugglers Brighton, although they were extremely fortunate to come away with the spoils after the Seagulls missed two penalties and had a goal chalked off by referee Lee Mason. 

The main thing that has cost West Brom this season is their defensive frailties. The Black Country side have shipped 55 goals at the time of writing - more than any side in the whole division and 11 more than Newcastle, who have conceded the second-most with 44. With seasoned troubleshooter Sam Allardyce at the helm there is hope, but a manager who has famously never been relegated from the Premier League and who is known for pulling off miracles (see Sunderland in 2015-16) will have to produce something special from now until the end of the season if his club are to avoid immediate relegation back down to the second tier in May.

Premier League outright betting

Fulham - 10/11 (52% chance of relegation)

Last five results:

  • Crystal Palace 0-0 Fulham
  • Fulham 1-0 Sheffield Utd
  • Burnley 1-1 Fulham
  • Everton 0-2 Fulham
  • Fulham 0-0 West Ham

Upcoming five fixtures:

  • Tottenham (H)
  • Liverpool (A)
  • Man City (H)
  • Leeds (H)
  • Aston Villa (A)

Fulham spent the first half of the campaign looking doomed but a recent surge in form throughout the early part of 2021 has seen the Cottagers pull to within touching distance of survival. Scott Parker’s side are the league’s draw specialists having played out 11 stalemates this season, and while the west Londoners have only won four of their 26 games, the points from those draws have been steadily adding up and they now find themselves just three points behind both Newcastle and Brighton with 12 games left to play.

Fulham play the right way and have often been unlucky not to pick up more points this term, with a lack of cutting edge in the final third to blame for their underwhelming points-return in 2020-21. Their run-in from now until the end of the season is daunting, however, with Tottenham, Liverpool, Man City, Leeds, Aston Villa, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd all among the teams left to play, making the remaining upcoming games against Wolves, Burnley, Southampton and Newcastle all absolutely pivotal for their chances of survival.

Newcastle - 7/4 (36% chance of relegation)

Last five results:

  • Newcastle 1-1 Wolves
  • Manchester Utd 3-1 Newcastle
  • Chelsea 2-0 Newcastle
  • Newcastle 3-2 Southampton
  • Newcastle 1-2 Crystal Palace

Upcoming five fixtures:

  • West Brom (A)
  • Aston Villa (H)
  • Brighton (A)
  • Tottenham (H)
  • Burnley (A)

Arguably the division’s most uninspiring side to watch this season, Newcastle have found themselves sat in the lower reaches of the top-flight table for pretty much the entire campaign and they are now in real danger of slipping into the bottom-three. Injuries to key players have had a huge impact on the Magpies, with star man Allan Saint-Maximin missing 14 games with respective ankle and calf complaints, and striker Callum Wilson also missing nine games (and counting) with a hamstring injury; his return date is currently unknown. 

Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron both got injured during the club’s 1-1 draw with Wolves at the weekend and will be sidelined until April at the earliest, dealing Newcastle’s chances of staying up another huge blow, and while Steve Bruce is a vastly experienced manager and one who has the credentials to haul the Magpies from the injury-ravaged rut they are currently in, things don’t look good for the St. James’ Park outfit at present. 

This next period of fixtures, which features games against West Brom, Brighton and Burnley are all vital for the north-east side, who desperately need to pick up some points from the teams surrounding them in the table - something they have actually been pretty good at this term, obtaining 13 points from a possible 27 in games against the league’s current bottom-eight - so there is certainly hope for them yet. 

Premier League relegation betting

Burnley - 6/1 (14% chance of relegation)

Last five results:

  • Tottenham 4-0 Burnley
  • Burnley 0-0 West Brom
  • Burnley 1-1 Fulham
  • Crystal Palace 0-3 Burnley
  • Burnley 1-1 Brighton

Upcoming five fixtures:

  • Leicester (H)
  • Arsenal (H)
  • Everton (A)
  • Southampton (A)
  • Newcastle (H)

Burnley are frequent contenders for relegation and this season things are no different for the Clarets, who sit 15th as things stand on 28 points - five above the relegation zone. A lack of goals has really cost the Lancashire club this season; just 18 scored in 26 outings makes them the second-lowest scorers in the top-flight ahead of only Sheffield United (15).

They have been fairly solid at the back, however, conceding 34 goals which ranks them 11th in the division, level with Liverpool. Burnley have also managed to grind out some good results against the likes of Arsenal (7/1), Wolves (5/2), Liverpool (10/1) and Aston Villa (16/5) this season which does show that they are capable of turning it on when required.

The main thing Burnley have in their favour is Sean Dyche. The experienced boss has kept the Clarets in the Premier League since their promotion in 2016, achieving 7th and 10th-placed finishes within those four years. They’ve also done well against the teams around them in the league this term, losing just one of their ten games against the current bottom-eight (W4, D5). Overall, they should be just about fine but there will be no room for complacency and hard work will have to be done to ensure they edge nearer to the magic 40-point mark in the months to come. 

Brighton - 17/2 (10.5% chance of relegation)

Last five results:

  • West Brom 1-0 Brighton
  • Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace
  • Brighton 0-0 Aston Villa
  • Burnley 1-1 Brighton
  • Liverpool 0-1 Brighton

Upcoming five fixtures:

  • Leicester (H)
  • Southampton (A)
  • Newcastle (H)
  • Manchester Utd (A)
  • Everton (H)

Where to begin? Brighton, by all accounts, should not be where they are in the table. The Seagulls are among the Premier League’s best in the xG (expected goals) table with a rating of 40.98, which is more than the likes of Aston Villa, West Ham, Leicester, Tottenham, Arsenal and Everton. Graham Potter has got his team playing some fantastic football and they are often a joy to watch, they just lack that final punch at the top end of the pitch. We saw it last week during their 2-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, a game in which they dominated every area of the pitch but just couldn’t convert their chances when it really mattered. 

Having conceded 33 goals, Brighton rank bang slap in mid-table for goals against and have the second-best defensive record out of the current bottom-eight, just one goal worse off than Fulham who have shipped a pretty impressive 32 (ninth-best in the PL). The south coast outfit have really struggled against the sides around them in the division this season, though, winning just one of their 11 games against the bottom-eight which is, put simply, not good enough. Case in point, their defeat to West Brom at the weekend; you cannot miss two penalties and expect to win a game of football. 

There is hope for Brighton due to the amount of chances they create, but ultimately it means nothing if they don’t start converting them into goals and subsequently, wins. A lot to do for the Seagulls in the remaining months of the season, starting with a win against an injury-hit Leicester this weekend.

Premier League betting

Southampton - 33/1 (2.9% chance of relegation)

Last five results:

  • Everton 1-0 Southampton
  • Leeds 3-0 Southampton
  • Southampton 1-1 Chelsea
  • Southampton 1-2 Wolves
  • Newcastle 3-2 Southampton

Upcoming five fixtures:

  • Sheffield Utd (A)
  • Man City (A)
  • Brighton (H)
  • Burnley (H)
  • West Brom (A)

Back in November Southampton deservedly topped the pile in the Premier League, so it seems bizarre that here we are now talking about them as genuine contenders for relegation. A host of injuries has seemingly blighted the Saints’ aspirations of a top-half finish this term and after Monday’s defeat to Everton the club now finds itself just seven points above the drop-zone. 

While that is a still relatively comfortable cushion, it is one which could - and will - easily evaporate with a few more defeats in their upcoming league games. Southampton face Sheffield United in a must-win game at Bramall Lane on Saturday before a daunting trip to runaway leaders Manchester City next Wednesday in a clash they will understandably not feel optimistic in getting anything out of. 

The biggest worry for Ralph Hasenhuttl at present is the lack of chances and goals his team are creating and scoring; they’ve only found the net five times in their last nine league matches, a run which included a second 9-0 defeat in the space of 18 months to the hands of Manchester United in February, while defensively they have failed to keep a clean sheet since the 1-0 win over Liverpool (11/2) at the start of January. Alongside this, their xG rating is just 26.58, ranking them sixth-bottom in this category which summarises how little they are creating in the final third.

Work to be done to stop the rut, but a couple more wins should secure Saints’ safety this season and there is every hope that they will start to pick up form soon enough, given their tactical approach and quality of personnel is better than most battling it out at the bottom.

Crystal Palace - 45/1 (2.2% chance of relegation)

Last five results:

  • Crystal Palace 0-0 Fulham
  • Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace
  • Crystal Palace 0-3 Burnley
  • Leeds 2-0 Crystal Palace
  • Newcastle 1-2 Crystal Palace

Upcoming five fixtures:

  • Manchester Utd (H)
  • Tottenham (A)
  • West Brom (H)
  • Everton (A)
  • Chelsea (H)

Just like Southampton, Palace have a sizable gap between themselves and the relegation zone, but with still 12 games left to play all that is needed is a poor run of form and the Eagles will be thrown right back in the mix. We saw this happen during Project Restart last season, where the south London side lost seven of their last eight games, drawing the other. Fortunately for them they had done enough prior to the coronavirus-enforced hiatus and in the end their 43 points were more than enough to keep them in the division, but they might not be so lucky this time around.

Palace are so reliant on Wilfried Zaha that when the Ivorian is missing through injury they are a completely different side, with little creative outlets and a stark lack of goals. Prior to picking up a hamstring injury against Newcastle last month, Zaha was on fire for the Eagles, netting nine goals and providing a further two assists in the PL. However, since his absence the Croydon outfit have picked up just one win, and it was a miracle that they even managed it considering their performance at the Amex saw them register just three shots compared to Brighton’s 25, and enjoy a meagre 25% share of the possession on the south coast.

The two goals scored in that bizarre victory over the Seagulls are the only two they have managed in their previous four outings without Zaha, so it doesn’t fill me with much hope that they will win too many of their upcoming matches without their talisman - whose return is as of yet unknown - in the side. Roy Hodgson is a great manager with plenty of know-how, though, and Palace will always be a side who are able to grind out results; for me, they’ll be fine, but a repeat of their performance at the end of last season could lead to disastrous repercussions this time around. 

BettingOdds.com verdict

I think it is abundantly clear to most that we will be waving goodbye to Sheffield United this season, while I also see little chance of West Brom remaining in the top-flight given the gap at the moment. 

For me, there’s only one space left and it will be a hard-fought battle between Fulham, Newcastle and Brighton. The latter are showing a lot more positivity in their play however, and if they can start capitalising on their chances then I think they’ll have enough about them to stay up.

Fulham’s run-in from now until the season’s end is a really tricky one but Scott Parker’s side are showing some tenacity and managing to pick up points here and there, which leads me to believe that it will be Newcastle who fall victim to the drop due to their ongoing issues with injury. 

Premier League relegation odds

Nottingham Forest
WIN PROB: 61%
1
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1/2
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AFC Bournemouth
WIN PROB: 60%
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Wolverhampton
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5/6
Everton
WIN PROB: 36%
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Southampton
WIN PROB: 34%
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Leeds
WIN PROB: 17%
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Fulham
WIN PROB: 10%
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Leicester
WIN PROB: 10%
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Brentford
WIN PROB: 8%
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West Ham United
WIN PROB: 9%
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Aston Villa
WIN PROB: 7%
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Crystal Palace
WIN PROB: 5%
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Brighton
WIN PROB: 1%
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Manchester United
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Chelsea
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Newcastle United
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Tottenham
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Liverpool
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Arsenal
WIN PROB: 0%
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Manchester City
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Odds correct as of 2022-12-08 21:11 Odds subject to change.
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