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Premier League Predictions: The Sack Race writers give their verdicts and best bets

Pep Guardiola’s side have won the title in four of the last five renewals and average 91.6 points per season across that period
Pep Guardiola’s side have won the title in four of the last five renewals and average 91.6 points per season across that period

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The start of the new Premier League season is now just a matter of hours away and as is tradition here at The Sack Race, we've put together our band of writers and have tasked them to provide their predictions ahead of the new campaign.  

Below you'll find their selections for the following three managerial categories...

  • Title Winner
  • First Premier League manager to leave
  • Surprise package

Title Winner

Jack Kitson: Pep Guardiola

Last season’s title tussle went right to the wire as Pep Guardiola dramatically finished victorious for the fourth time in five years. The Spaniard’s quartet of Premier League gongs leapfrogs him above Jose Mourinho and Arsene Wenger, although he still has someway to go to catch Sir Alex Ferguson’s mammoth tally of 13.

After a summer of significant incomings and outgoings at the Etihad, the challenge for Guardiola is ensuring that his new additions adapt to his demands and methods pretty swiftly, as he won’t want to start slowly again given that Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool will be hungry for glory. Another compelling and competitive two-horse race is hugely likely, and once again I’m backing Pep to edge it in what could possibly be his seventh and final season at Man City. 

Anton Eadson: Pep Guardiola

Pep Guardiola’s side have won the title in four of the last five renewals and average an astonishing 91.6 points per season across that period. I am very much under the impression that Liverpool are the only team who could potentially challenge Manchester City to the title in 2022/2023, but the addition of Erling Haaland should give City a new dimension in attack, with one of the most potent strikers in world football joining the club his father once played for. 

We are not going to get rich backing City as a single to lift the trophy, with their price looking particularly short at around 8/13. Even the best teams have to find ways to improve and City look to have done so this summer by adding Kalvin Phillips, Julian Alvarez and Erling Haaland. Pep’s men have amassed 100, 98, 86, and 93 points in their last four title winning seasons, and it’s also worth noting that in the last two of those, bet365 have paid out in February, when they were 10 points clear in the table. 

Premier League Odds

Adam Roberts: Pep Guardiola

The machine rolls on. After four title wins in five seasons for City, the rest of the division should be scared that they look even stronger than ever, especially boasting the signing of the summer Erling Haaland. I simply don't see a scenario where he doesn't score a hatful of goals and fulfils their only real deficiency since Sergio Aguero left. 

Billy Grimshaw: Pep Guardiola

It's boring but another void season awaits us as Man City's tainted title tally should tick over once more. Pep's unlimited pot of oil money has gifted him another gem with Erling Haaland and I can't see how the defending champions will be any worse this season for fixing the one clear hole in their expensively assembled squad. Losing Sterling will be offset by the addition of Alvarez and I'm expecting £100m man Jack Grealish to finally start repaying some of that enormous price tag. Ah well, at least there's not many of them to rub it in your face when they're crowned champions in May again. And at least it's not Liverpool…

Pete Marsden: Pep Guardiola

Excuse my obvious bias, I can’t see how anyone stops the mighty Blues becoming just the second club to win three Premier League’s on the bounce. The signings we’ve brought in this summer have only added to the quality of the side, and at 4/7 with most bookmakers, it looks like it could be set. For value, either look for City to win the quadruple (currently 55/1 with William Hill), or a domestic treble (20/1).

Luke Hamilton: Pep Guardiola 

A revamped Liverpool forward line and Tottenham's significant strengthening will be no match for an upgraded Manchester City team. Despite some major departures from their squad this summer, the implementation of a traditional number nine means we could well be in for an even more fluid Manchester City attack, with record signing Jack Grealish also expected to step up to the plate during his second season with the club.

Klopp's side will run them close again - maybe not as tightly as last term - but anticipate the title to stay at the Etihad for a third consecutive season and the fifth time in the last six seasons.

Sack Race Odds

Michael Bates: Pep Guardiola 

It’s going to be another season where the £ pays for the winner of the Premier League, ever since Blackburn discovered in 94/95 that if you pump money in when others are not as inclined you have a good chance to walk away with some silverware. However instead of the £25m, it’s now closer to £1B and it does also depend on spending that money wisely, something that I think Man City have done this year in getting Haaland into the squad, but one player does not make a team but it certainly helps.If you are looking for a season long bet, combining Man City to win and Fulham and Leeds to both get relegated you can have a tasty 10/1 season long bet with bet365.

Jack Porter: Pep Guardiola

Manchester City will become the first team since Manchester United across 2006 and 2009 to win the Premier League three times in a row. Just as sure as the turning of the Earth. And Pep Guardiola should regain the LMA Manager of the Year award for doing so.

Title Winner Results

  • Pep Guardiola: 8

First Manager To Leave

Jack Kitson: Scott Parker

This category looks both intriguing and very open this season. Frank Lampard recently moved to the favourite, Ralph Hasenhuttl needs a fast start, and Jesse Marsch has lost two huge stars, however the two bosses I like the look of at current prices are Scott Parker and Bruno Lage (both 12/1), particularly the Bournemouth boss. 

Parker may already have two promotions on his CV but he’s also been relegated twice; he won just five games with goal-shy Fulham last time out. Now at Bournemouth, it’s fair to say that he hasn’t won over all fans just yet following a weirdly inconsistent debut season. Parker has been handed a daunting August featuring managerial duels with Pep Guardiola, Jurgen Klopp and Mikel Arterta, meaning he could well find himself under pressure before the first international break.

Anton Eadson: Jesse Marsch 

Leeds United escaped the drop by the barest of margins last season, when staying up on the final day of the campaign with an away win at Brentford. Jesse Marsch has lost arguably his two best players this summer with Kalvin Phillips departing down the M62 to Manchester City, and Raphinha swapping Elland Road for the Nou Camp. BetVictor have 8/1 available at the time of writing on Jesse Marsch being the first manager to leave his post, which looks just a little big for my liking. 

Adam Roberts: Jesse Marsch

Ted Lasso is about to have his difficult second season. After doing a reasonable job last year in saving Leeds on the final day, Marsch has changed things up considerably in Beeston, selling his two prize assets in Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha and trying to strengthen the overall squad so that they aren't as badly affected by injuries like last season. However, the players he has brought in have a distinctly Red Bull flavour to them and if they don't gel quickly and Leeds get off to a slow start, don't underestimate just how toxic Elland Road can get and the strength of feeling and longing for the old gaffer. Bielsaball anyone?

Billy Grimshaw: Thomas Tuchel

I was torn here between going with a Chelsea legend in Lampard and the incumbent Chelsea manager in Tuchel. With the German available at bigger odds, he'll do for me. All is not well on the questionable ship Chelsea  and the German has launched some tirades against his own players and their transfer (or lack of) business. If the Blues get off to a shaky start, I can see the new American owner getting twitchy and Tuchel seems the type who would happily walk away if things aren't going his way. With the potential for both a sacking and a resignation, I think he looks value at 14/1 to be the first manager to leave in the 22/23 Premier League season.

First Manager To Leave Odds

Pete Marsden: Frank Lampard

This is a much more difficult one to pick, as you could make a case for a lot of the frontrunners to be gone first. Fulham have a history of changing managers in recent seasons, and Leeds have lost their two best players this summer. Ralph Hasenhuttl could be under pressure if Southampton get off to a bad start, but I can’t help but worry for Frank Lampard. He’s the current favourite with all bookmakers on The Sack Race, and you can’t help but think that it could be a torrid time for Everton. Losing Richarlison is a big blow, and although the fans came together to help their side avoid relegation, a poor start could see the infamous boos return to Goodison.

Keep an eye elsewhere on Thomas Tuchel (as big as 14/1), who could become disillusioned with Chelsea after a frustrating transfer window.

Luke Hamilton: Marco Silva

WIth no Watford present to cement this season's pick, it's another league newbie who takes my fancy. Fulham have yo-yo'd between the Premier League and Championship for the past four seasons, spending an inordinate amount of cash along the way without much to show for it.

Slavisa Jokanovic was the first boss relieved of his duties during the 18/19 PL campaign, managing just one win from his opening 12 games. Therefore it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Marco Silva starts in a similar fashion and causes the club's owners to make a decision; especially when The Cottagers begin the campaign with a lunchtime visit from Liverpool before facing Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham all within their first seven matches.

It's also worth mentioning that their imperfections are already there for all to see - they conceded more goals and lost more games than fellow promoted club Bournemouth last season, adding to their largely uninspiring recruitment and the emphasis on Aleksandar Mitrovic to become a proven goalscorer at this level overnight.

Michael Bates: Jesse Marsch

If only Watford were in the Premier League this season then I would get at least one of these three topics correct.

Sadly Marsch is no Ted Lasso. After barely surviving last season it’s impressive that LUFC have not made a change in the break but they are definitely a side that will change their manager if the first handful of results do not go their way. An 8/1 price from Bet Victor is a tempting offer, especially as you will get no value on backing Man City to win the league (again).

Jack Porter: Frank Lampard

I wanted to take a punt on Antonio Conte being the first manager to leave, such is the nature of both Spurs (did you know that José Mourinho is the fifth longest-serving manager in the club’s 140-year history) and Conte is Conte. Maybe I’m being too premature and this is a prediction that should have been saved for summer 2023. Either way, 25/1 for the Italian to leave first is tempting, if Spurs don’t get off to a flying start after a rabidly productive summer of signings that saw six new arrivals by July 1.

Instead, judging by a woeful pre-season, the first Premier League manager to leave punt has to go to the ill-fitting Frank Lampard, helping commemorate the 120th season of the existence of Everton Football Club with a patented ritual sacrifice. Favourite in the market, he’s best priced at 9/2 to be the first to be marched to the proverbial gaffer guillotine.

First Manager To Leave Results

  • Jesse Marsch: 3
  • Frank Lampard: 2
  • Scott Parker: 1
  • Thomas Tuchel: 1
  • Marco Silva: 1
Premier League Stats

Surprise Package

Jack Kitson: Steve Cooper

Steve Cooper’s impact at Nottingham Forest last season was absolutely stunning. This time around, escaping an instant demotion is of the utmost concern, yet some smart recruitment - where did that Jesse Lingard move come from? - could keep the sparkle alive in Forest’s fairytale.

Continuing to ride the promotion wave worked wonders for Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United (9th in 2019/20), while Thomas Frank’s Brentford came pretty close to a top-10 finish last term. Given the clustered nature outside of the ‘Big-6’ it really is a lottery attempting to predict where the other 14 teams will finish. At 10/1 I certainly won’t be ruling the magnificent Cooper out for a top-half standing.

Anton Eadson: Brendan Rodgers

Leicester have not finished outside the top-10 in the last five renewals of the Premier League with finishes of 9th, 9th, 5th, 5th, and most recently 8th in 2021/2022. Although last term may have felt a rather underwhelming campaign in comparison to some of those during the last decade for Leicester, Brendan Rodgers’ side still managed to finish just four points behind West Ham, as well as having to compete in the Europa Conference League, where they reached the semi-finals.

Jamie Vardy has scored 13+ goals in the last seven Premier League season’s for Leicester and still managed 15 last term when missing nine league matches through injury. Vardy managed 26 shots on target in just 25 appearances last season and with Betfair and Paddy Power going 10/11 for him to have 27+ in the forthcoming campaign, I’ll be taking a bit of that. At a bigger price, I’ll also be taking Vardy to have 50+ shots on target in the season at 33/1 with the same firms. 

  • Jamie Vardy 27+ Shots on Target - 10/11 Paddy Power
  • Jamie Vardy 50+ Shots on Target - 33/1 Paddy Power

Adam Roberts: Steve Cooper

Cooper did a superb job last season, picking up a beleaguered Forest side that sat rock-bottom and dragging them into the play-offs, where they eventually overturned Huddersfield Town at Wembley. Many expected Forest to struggle in their return to the top flight but they have been extremely busy in the summer transfer market, spending almost £75m to date and picking up Jesse Lingard on a one-year free transfer deal that looks a shrewd bit of business. Aaron Ramsey is rumoured to follow and all of a sudden they look to have the strongest line-up of any of the promoted sides.  I wouldn't put anyone off backing them at 10/1 for a top-half finish. 

Billy Grimshaw: Steve Cooper

The job Steve Cooper did with Forest last season has been praised to high heaven, and rightly so, since their promotion to the Premier League was confirmed via the play-offs. He converted a leaky defence into a well oiled machine and got the sleeping giants firing to rocket them up the table. With the loss of crucial man Djed Spence many may fear for Forest this season, however I'd be confident Cooper has enough tools in his locker to steer them comfortably clear of a relegation scrap. 

I think Forest look cracking value in the top promoted club market compared to Fulham, the free-scoring but flimsy favourites, and could also be worth a little wager for a top half finish on their return to the Premier League  a la Wolves and Sheffield United in recent years.

Pete Marsden: David Moyes

It’s not so much a surprise given their form over the last two seasons, but I think Moyesey and the boys at the London Stadium could continue to ruffle some feathers. Playing attractive football, and bringing in some serious firepower in Gianluca Scamacca, expect them to be battling for a top six place (4/1), and without any midweek distractions in Europe, they may have some of the bigger six sweating for a top four place (12/1).

Elsewhere, expect Crystal Palace and Patrick Vieira to continue well for a top 10 place (9/4), and Steve Cooper’s Nottingham Forest to finish the season as the top promoted club (13/8).

Luke Hamilton: Brendan Rodgers

I may have widely miscalculated on how well Brodge and his Foxes would do last time out, but there were a number of different reasons that selection didn't go according to plan. So for the 22/23 campaign I'm doubling down and predicting them to push the teams involved in what looks to be one of the most competitive PL top four races on paper by finishing in the top six.

It can't be overstated how important having no European football is for a team's domestic hopes. The congested schedule killed Leicester last term, and although that balance can be found as evidenced by West Ham, it certainly helps to not have to stretch yourself so far and wide every week.

Transfer business can often cloud people's judgements, and City's apparent retention of key assets is a major attraction. Long-term absentees returning will also feel like new additions to an already healthy looking squad.

With Leicester a larger price (5/1) than both Newcastle and West Ham, and being priced up at the same odds as Villa, it's difficult not to back them to land a top six spot.

Michael Bates: Steven Gerrard

As much as it pains me as a Coventry City fan I have a feeling about Aston Villa this year, maybe there is something in the water or maybe I should not have eaten that rice I left out all night but I can see a top-six finish this season for Steven Gerrard. Although they finished 14th last season you can only get odds of around 11/2 (Best Price with Bet Fred), not enough to make you rich but to keep you interested outside of the big boys.

Villa have a big squad and the permanent signing of Coutinho could see him have a swansong season at the ripe old age of 30, he’s certainly no top goal scorer of the season but at 250/1 with Paddy Power an each-way bet might not be out of the question.

Jack Porter: Eddie Howe

Seeing as we’re firmly into an era of state-owned football clubs monopolising the beautiful game, and with their admittedly sensible business and the solid stewardship of Edward Howe, I’m going to suggest Newcastle United nibbling on the heels of the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal and even whichever Chelsea organisation shows up in 2022/23. Newcastle are 80/1 to win the whole damn thing, which even the most hardened Toonatic would be hard-pressed to part their Newcastle Brown Ale money for right now, but for a Big Six infiltration, Betfred is offering an attractive 5/2.

Surprise Package Results

  • Steve Cooper: 3
  • Brendan Rodgers: 2
  • David Moyes: 1
  • Steven Gerrard: 1
  • Eddie Howe: 1

Premier League Odds

Manchester City
WIN PROB: 65%
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Liverpool
WIN PROB: 23%
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Tottenham
WIN PROB: 7%
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Chelsea
WIN PROB: 6%
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Arsenal
WIN PROB: 4%
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Manchester United
WIN PROB: 1%
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Newcastle United
WIN PROB: 1%
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Brighton
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West Ham United
WIN PROB: 0%
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Leicester
WIN PROB: 0%
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Aston Villa
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Everton
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Wolverhampton
WIN PROB: 0%
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Crystal Palace
WIN PROB: 0%
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Leeds
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Southampton
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Brentford
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Nottingham Forest
WIN PROB: 0%
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Fulham
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AFC Bournemouth
WIN PROB: 0%
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Odds correct as of 2022-08-10 07:43 Odds subject to change.
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