Napoli vs. Barcelona Predictions: Expect plenty of goals in Naples

With the game perfectly posed, Napoli’s fixture with Barcelona live from the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium on BT Sport promises to be a cracker. 

It ended all square at the Camp Nou. Luciano Spalletti’s side took the league courtesy of a rasping strike from Piotr Zielinski’s right boot in the first half, then, the hosts levelled from the spot just before the hour mark. It was a somewhat dubious handball decision, but Ferran Torres duly despatched the penalty and, based on the balance of play, honours even was probably fair.  

Odds wise, this is a pick'em. The hosts are priced around 17/10- 37% chance of victory- however, as they have only won 14% of their games when priced accordingly, it may be worth looking elsewhere in the 1x2, or avoiding it completely. Especially considering Spalletti could be without a senior right back. 

Giovanni Di Lorenzo, his first choice, was involved in a serious clash of heads on Monday and his replacement- Kevin Malcuit- has a calf injury. This could see the vastly inexperienced Alsessandro Zonoli get the nod on Thursday. 

Following his hat-trick at the weekend against Valencia, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is expected to lead the line for the visitors. Xavi has said that the club has been very impressed with the Arsenal loanee's positive attitude and he could play a role in reintegrating Ousmane Dembélé into contention. The French winger has struggled during his time in Spain, but a familiar face alongside him in attack could be a step towards reviving his career. 

In the Europa League this campaign, the Little Donkeys games have often descended into chaos. Their seven fixtures have seen 27 goals, 37 yellow cards and three red cards! That is an average of 3.85 goals and 5.7 cards per game with all of their fixtures, bar the first leg, featuring at least three goals whilst three of them have seen five. 

According to the underlying data, this was to be expected as these matches have generated a combined xG of 26.57. This means that Napoli’s Europa League games have only overperformed this metric by 0.43 of a goal, which is 0.06 per match, which is marginal. 

Obviously, as it finished 1-1, this bet would not have landed in the first leg, however, that game generated an xG of 3.08, so it could have. And with the away goal rule abolished, Napoli have no advantage to protect meaning they should be offensively obliging. This, combined with Barca’s leaking backline, sets us up for a goal laden game. 

With 14 goals in a career spanning 150 games, Eljif Elmas' price to score anytime of 23/4 with Unibet represents significant value as it is. 

This campaign, the North Macedonian midfielder has been in fine fettle in front of goal, boasting a goals per 90 average of 0.41 in all competitions. Based on this alone, 2/1 or above would be big enough to back. 

In this competition, he tops his sides charts for goals contributions (5) as no player has found the net more times for Napoli than him. In fact, only Patson Daka (5) and Karl Toko Ekambi (6) have found the net more times than him in the UEL this season.  

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.