Middlesbrough vs Aston Villa Prediction and Betting Tips: Visitors' high defensive line to catch Boro out on Saturday
Live on BBC One, the broadcasters will be hoping for a televised FA Cup third round shock as Premier League high-fliers Aston Villa make the trip to the Riverside Stadium to face Michael Carrick's Middlesbrough at 5:30pm on Saturday.
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Unai Emery has Aston Villa in an incredible groove, dancing to the sound of his beat and exceeding all expectations in their assault on the Premier League top four and the possibility of even higher aspirations during this campaign. Meanwhile, consistency has plagued Middlesbrough's search for promotion, needing a much stronger second half of the season to be in with a shout of another taste of PL football over the likes of Southampton and Leeds United.
Middlesbrough vs Aston Villa Tips
A price that is bound to go if you aren't quick enough is even money for Middlesbrough to record two or more offsides in the match with BetMGM. Aston Villa's defensive line has been one of their greatest weapons this season, with even Unai Emery admitting that after initially disciplining his men in this area he is now out of control as to how high the back line pushes up. Footballers are creatures of habit, good and bad, so even a rotated Villa team will adopt this approach in the manner of which Emery wants to play.
AVFC have mastered catching their opponents out, recording the most offsides against opposition teams in the Premier League this season with 88 - 29 more than the next closest team in Tottenham. They trapped Burnley six times with this tactic just before the new year in their last outing and have recorded recent numbers of 3, 4, 7, 4, 4, 5, 3, 2 in December's congested slate.
In terms of how good value this bet is Sky Bet don't even have this low line available, going 1/4 for Middlesbrough to record 3+ and 8/13 for 4+. Act quick!
This bet too feels low considering that Villa are likely to introduce some second string players for the trip to North Yorkshire. Middlesbrough also happen to be the Championship team with the third-most shots on target registered this season on 144 behind only Plymouth and Southampton.
In home matches at the Riverside, Boro have let off shots on target totals of: 7, 4, 8, 1, 6, 3, 10, 6, 5. That displays them hitting this line in all but two fixtures at this venue, with the six against Leicester being a good gauge for how they may fare against Villa.
As much of a fortress as AVFC have made Villa Park, they're still somewhat lacking when it comes to competing at the same level away from home. For shots on target conceded in away Premier League fixtures, Villa have conceded four or more efforts at their goalkeeper three times. But potentially without the safety net of Emiliano Martinez in goal or an experienced back line standing in front of the game's chosen goalkeeper, Boro have a real opportunity to test their superior opposition in this FA Cup tie.
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