Manchester United vs. Middlesbrough Predictions: Two data driven bet builders for Fridays FA Cup clash

Friday night live on ITV, Manchester United welcome Middlesbrough to Old Trafford for a fourth round FA Cup tie. Man United progressed from round three in a 1-0 victory against Steven Gerrard's Villa, with Middlesbrough claiming a 3-2 victory against League Two side Mansfield.

Still only one defeat under Ralph Rangnick with United's most recent win coming from out-of-sorts Marcus Rashford in the 93rd minute against West ham, clinching a crucial 1-0 win. Mason Greenwood has been suspended by the club meaning there will be changes to the starting XI that faced West Ham last time out. Elanga may keep his place here after high energy and desire since getting a chance in the team.

Middlesbroughs new signing from Birmingham, Riley McGree, will miss out here due to testing positive for covid-19 whilst on international duty. New loanee Folarin Balogun from Arsenal could make his full debut for the club on Friday night. Manchester United's academy graduate, Paddy McNair, will be keen to impress returning to face his former club and could feature in part of a back three. Sammy Ameobi, Darnell Fisher and Marc Bola all remain sidelined here leaving Chris Wilder with limited options. 

Manchester United possible starting lineup:
De Gea; Dalot, Lindelof, Maguire, Shaw; Matic, McTominay; Rashford, Fernandes, Elanga; Ronaldo

Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Lumley; McNair, Bamba, Fry; Jones, Howson, Crooks, Tavernier, Taylor; Sporar, Balogun

With the improvements to Bet365 and their prop markets, they allow us to make some interesting bet builders using the teams data.

Since Rangnick took charge at Old Trafford, implementing a different style of play resulted in a significant increase in tackles. In his ten games in charge, Man Utd have cleared this line eight times, with an average of 18.1 per game.

The Middlesbrough line looks fairly high for tackles here, Man Utd's opposition only managing to register over 20.5 tackles once under Rangnick, with an average of 14.8 tackles against per game. Middlesbrough themselves have only cleared this line four times this season across twenty-nine matches in all competitions. 

To complete this bet builder, I have included a free kick line which hasn’t lost all season. Across all of Man Utd's games this season in all competitions, they have failed to have over 17.5 free kicks. Middlesbrough don’t give away many free kicks themselves, in the twenty-nine matches in all competitions this season, they have only given away eighteen or more in one match, finishing on exactly eighteen against QPR.

Using the same data as for the main selection, I see some value in taking the higher prices on each selection above. I am also including Man Utd under 17.5 shots, a line that hasn't cleared in their last eighteen matches in all competitions. Middlesbrough don’t concede many shots either, preventing their opposition from clearing this line in all of their last twenty-eight matches!

In Man Utd games since Rangnick took over, these combined selections (using Man Utd opposition as Middlesbrough tackles) would have landed in four of their ten games making this 8/1 seem very generous. 

DeanWoodward BettingOdds PnL 2022 - +3.96pts (63%roi)