Manchester City v Chelsea Betting: Aguero to hit the target against his favourite opponents

Manchester City take on Chelsea in the Premier League this Saturday with many branding the game a dress rehearsal for the Champions League final. Both sides have done England proud in Europe’s most prestigious competition this season with City and Chelsea both securing second-leg wins against PSG and Real Madrid.

With some players set to be rotated and rested for this weekend’s Premier League encounter, we’ve taken a look at some of the data behind a couple of players who we think will be starting at the Etihad. Manchester City have the chance to seal the league title on Saturday and with Chelsea still needing points to finish inside the top-four, there’s plenty to play for.

Off the back of our findings we’ve picked out a bet that we like the look of which has been given a boost from 7/1 to 8/1 by those good folk over at Paddy Power. You can find a full range of football tips on site from some of our best betting brains this weekend including for Everton’s trip to West Ham on Sunday.

A man who loves playing against Chelsea

One man we won’t be glad to see the back of this summer if he leaves as speculated is Manchester City legend, Sergio Aguero. Kun has been a remarkable servant to City and has had a huge part to play in helping the club to be at the point where it is today.

Over the last decade one club that Aguero has absolutely relished playing against is Chelsea. In fact against no other opponent in his career has he scored more goals against than the Blues, hitting 15 goals against them - the same amount he has bagged against Newcastle. 

Aguero’s record of 15 goals in 21 appearances against Chelsea is certainly worth considering for Saturday’s match and after completing 90 minutes in the league for only the second time of the season against Palace last week, we expect the 32-year-old to start this weekend.

Against Roy Hodgson’s side, Aguero looked fit and sharp throughout the game at Selhurst Park and rounded off his performance with a goal which he took superbly getting the ball out of his feet at speed to fire into the net in as few touches as possible. 

Rodri back in with a bang

Fernandinho put in a masterclass against Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday evening as the experienced midfielder acted as a second manager on the field at times, showing why he’s another great that has graced the turf at Eastlands. We expect Rodri to come back in against Chelsea this weekend and like the look of him to pick up a card.

In the Premier League last year Rodri was shown the yellow card on eight occasions, more than any other player at City. He also topped the ranks for the club when it comes to fouls per game with 1.2 on average. That’s continued into this campaign with his foul rate increasing slightly to 1.3 per game, again the highest at Manchester City. 

In total Rodri has received six yellows in all competitions in the 2020/2021 season and after Fernandinho’s impeccable performance midweek, I think the Spaniard will be looking to show his manager just why he should be the player who starts in the Champions League final. I’m hoping that this desire to impress for the final could boil over into a foul worthy of a booking and with high quality opponents on show in Chelsea I’m willing to have him on-side.  

The Referee

Anthony Taylor will be the man in the middle on Saturday, and last season no official brandished more yellow cards than the man from Wythenshawe, who is also often seen officiating in European competition.

Taylor’s yellow card per game ratio has gone down from 3.75 per game last season to 2.67 per game in the league this season, however his average of 5 yellows per game in the Champions League this season and showing of seven on his one Europa League appearance gives confidence that he’s still got a big haul in him. 

Taylor also ranks second of 19 referees for penalties awarded this season in the league, which could well be a factor that helps lead towards the first half of this selection with Aguero potentially having a shot on target via a penalty. 

The Bet

Chelsea, however, have been water tight at the back in recent weeks and have only conceded one goal in their last six games across all competitions. Further to that, since Thomas Tuchel took over they have kept a clean sheet in 18 of their 24 matches. Stunning numbers with a potential for a low scoring game we’re going a little more conservative with the first half of our double and are taking Sergio Aguero to have 1+ shot on target.

Paired with Aguero hitting the target is Rodri to be carded who has picked up six cautions in all competitions this season. The Spanish midfielder is committing more fouls per game on average than any other member of the City squad this campaign, including Fernandinho. He will be looking to impress to regain his place in the starting line-up for the Champions League final and at 8/1 we are willing to take a punt on him being carded along with Sergio Aguero hitting one or more shots on target.

Best of luck to those following, the game can be seen at 5:30pm Saturday, live on Sky Sports Premier League. Please always gamble responsibly.